80 Days… The stock market recovered from the Iran war. The bond market never did. A huge disconnect… While investors spent the last two months celebrating AI earnings, record highs, and resilient consumers… something much less exciting has been quietly breaking in the background: The cost of money itself. Today, the 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.2% for the first time since 2007. That may sound like a boring bond-market statistic. It isn’t. Because when long-term yields move this fast, they eventually start dragging everything else with them:→ mortgages→ stock valuations→ credit...

The New Era. For decades, Berkshire Hathaway was one of the few things investors felt they understood. Warren Buffett bought businesses with durable advantages, held them forever, ignored the noise, and let compounding do the heavy lifting. The playbook rarely changed. Now the person holding that playbook is gone. And this morning, Greg Abel gave the market its first real glimpse of what Berkshire Hathaway might look like without Warren Buffett calling the shots. The result? → UnitedHealth is out.→ Amazon is out.→ Mastercard and Visa are out.→ Delta and Macy’s are in. And suddenly, Berkshire...

Retail investors are waiting for SpaceX. Wall Street isn’t. Because before the biggest IPO in years even files publicly, money is already flowing into the companies orbiting around it. → Rocket builders.→ Satellite operators.→ Signal intelligence firms.→ Space infrastructure plays. Some are doubling revenue.Most are still building before the profits arrive.All of them are racing to establish their niche in the space economy before SpaceX hits public markets. The race already started. Here’s the story ⇩ SPONSOR BREAK presented by BrownstoneResearch* While the whole world is watching Elon,...

The Headline That Lit The Match Earlier this month, passengers aboard the MV Hondius started getting sick while crossing the Atlantic. Health officials later identified suspected cases tied to the Andes strain of hantavirus. A few deaths were reported. Two Americans were transported in biocontainment units. The setup looked familiar. COVID permanently rewired how markets react to health scares. Back in 2020, the biggest money was made when vaccine names started ripping before the rest of Wall Street fully understood what was happening. So now, every time a virus story hits the tape, traders...

The Trade Before the Trade Everyone is staring at the menu waiting for SpaceX. But while you were deciding what to order, the appetizer just arrived — and it jumped 30% on the first day.  HawkEye 360 raised $416 million, priced at the top of its range, and immediately traded higher. Not a household name and not a massive revenue story. But a very clean signal. Today we talk about HawkEye 360… and tomorrow we talk about the main course. Here’s the story ⇩ SPONSOR BREAK presented by BrownstoneResearch* Larry Benedict generated $274 million for his clients by finding the trade most missed.He...

The Habit… Most people don’t think about capital markets at 7:30 in the morning. They’re thinking about coffee — how fast they can get it, whether the line is moving, if their usual order is already waiting. What feels like a routine… is actually one of the most efficient cash-flow machines in America. And now, it’s heading back to Wall Street. Dunkin’ is preparing to go public again — this time inside a private equity-built restaurant portfolio that looks a lot bigger than it actually is. On paper, it’s diversification. In reality, it’s something else. Here’s the story ⇩ SPONSOR BREAK...

… just add AI. Almost every single earnings call last week mentioned AI. Not once or as a footnote… but as the whole thesis. → DoorDash: AI will know what you want for dinner before you do. → CrowdStrike: AI will catch your hacker before they know they’ve been caught.→ McDonald’s: AI is how we’re going to personalize your value meal. → Burger King: AI is how we’re going to fix the soda machine experience. At some point you have to ask — is this a technology revolution or is “AI” just the new way to say “we have a plan” on an earnings call? Let’s...

This IPO Breaks Every Rule The fine print on the SpaceX IPO is extraordinary. → You can’t sue. → You can’t vote. → You can’t fire Musk. The only person who can fire Musk is Musk. And yet the line to get in stretches around the block. SpaceX is expected to be the biggest IPO in history:→ $75 billion in proceeds, → a $1.75 trillion valuation, and → an unusually generous 30% allocation for retail investors. That last part almost never happens at this scale. Musk is letting everyday investors in early, which sounds generous until you read what you’re actually agreeing...

Same Menu… Different Reality Four burger chains reported earnings this week. → One is on the best run in years. → One is quietly bleeding out. → One just went up in smoke. → And one is promising it’ll be fine by Christmas. Welcome to the fast food earnings wars — where your lunch order is somebody’s stock price, the soda machine is a political statement, and a CEO eating a burger on camera can move markets more than a Fed announcement. Here’s the story ⇩ SPONSOR BREAK presented by BanyanHill* The REAL Reason Trump Is Invading IranFor a moment… Forget about Trump’s ties...

The Market Finally Caught Up In 2001, Corning was dying. The internet bubble had just burst, and demand for fiber optic cables — Corning’s entire business — collapsed almost overnight.  Revenue fell 70% in a single year.The stock dropped 99% from its peak.Employees were laid off by the thousands. The company that had been making specialty glass since 1851 was suddenly fighting for its life. The painful irony? Corning was not failing because fiber optics was a bad idea. It was failing because the world was not ready for it yet. The infrastructure was being built decades too early —...

When winning is not enough Imagine you ran a marathon, finished in the top 1%, broke your personal record by 20 minutes, and crossed the finish line to find the crowd booing.  That is roughly what happened to Palantir this week — a company that posted: → 85% revenue growth, → 150% earnings growth, → raised its full-year guidance, and → closed 206 deals worth at least $1 million each in a single quarter, only to watch its stock slide 7% as investors shrugged and moved on. So what went wrong? To answer that, you have to understand what the market is quietly doing to software companies right...

The Spoiler Alert… Before we talk numbers, we need to talk about Charlie Munger. Munger — Warren Buffett’s right hand for 45 years, the guy who turned “I’m just a poor man’s Buffett” into a philosophy — once said something that aged so well it should be in a museum: “When a manager with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.”— Charlie Munger Translation: it doesn’t matter how smart you are. A bad business will humble you every time. Keep that...

Picture the most expensive restaurant you’ve ever been to. Now imagine every major tech company walks in, sits down, and orders everything on the menu. Twice.  → Google drops $180-190 billion. → Meta slaps down $145 billion. → Microsoft and Amazon between them are clearing $300 billion. The total bill for Big Tech’s 2026 AI infrastructure binge is now north of $700 billion — more than the entire GDP of Switzerland, all of it pointed at data centers, chips, and the existential fear of being the one company that didn’t build enough. Apple looked at the menu, ordered a side...

All In. 🃏 In poker, going “all in” means one thing. You’re not hedging or folding. You’re pushing every chip you have to the middle of the table and telling everyone else in the room: I believe in this hand more than you believe in yours. This Wednesday at 4:01pm, four of the most powerful companies on Earth are turning their cards over. 1 Microsoft. 2 Alphabet. 3 Meta. 4 Amazon. They’ve already gone all in. $670 billion committed to AI infrastructure this year alone. → More than Sweden’s entire GDP. → More than America’s entire defense budget. → The largest...