One Very Expensive Disagreement… SpaceX shares touched $110.85 this week — 18% below the IPO price, and closing in on a level Morgan Stanley says would mean the market is assigning zero, or even negative, value to the company’s entire AI business. Grok. Cursor. All of it. Worth nothing, at $100 a share. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas — one of the most bullish analysts covering the stock — says that math is wrong, and that the gap between where the stock trades and where he thinks it should trade is really a referendum on how much investors trust an AI segment they’ve mostly...

We’ve Seen This Movie Before… US midterm elections are right around the corner, and Washington is already loud about it. Historically, markets don’t love that noise. Oddly enough, they’ve loved what comes next. But the data on what happens right after the noise stops is remarkably consistent Here’s the historical pattern, what may actually be driving it, and why prediction markets are turning election season into their next big business. ⇩ SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone* What is Trump’s decade-long obsession? No president has moved markets like Trump. He...

SpaceX Bulls, Bears… Mark Your Calendar Musk says the shorts won’t survive. The shorts have never been bigger… Last week, Elon Musk warned that firms maintaining large short positions in SpaceX faced a “very low” survival probability. Wall Street’s response? Short sellers added roughly 21 million more shares to their bearish bets. Today, nearly one-third of SpaceX’s tradable float is sold short. Now the calendar gets involved. SpaceX reports earnings on August 4. The first lockup expires 48 hours later, potentially releasing $116 billion worth of shares...

Time To Retire? Scott Chronert of Citi says the label no longer describes where AI leadership actually is. In a note to clients this week, he argued the term has become “misleading” as the AI trade broadens beyond its original seven members. Ten days ago, we showed you the same trend: five of the Magnificent Seven were lagging the S&P 500, while their valuation premium had fallen to its lowest level in a decade. Chronert’s conclusion goes one step further. The biggest AI winners may no longer all be in the original club. Here’s what happened. ⇩ SPONSOR BREAK...

Third Bet This Month… CuspAI closed a $450 million round Monday, pushing its valuation to $2.6 billion — up from $520 million last September. That’s roughly a 5x jump in ten months, for a two-year-old company whose technology has never produced a single molecule good enough to leave the lab. Jeff Bezos backed the round anyway. This is his third headline-making tech bet this month alone. Here’s what happened. ⇩ SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise* 1 Stock to Own by July 31st Get rid of overpriced AI stocks before a scheduled announcement on July 31st threatens to reshuffle...

The Flip Side… ✱ Record earnings. ✱ Then Michael Burry disclosed a short position.✱ Two days later, the stock fell 15%. Earlier this week, we covered Micron’s record quarter: → $41.46 billion in revenue, → 346% year-over-year growth, and → a forward P/E of just 7.4x. It was one of the strongest earnings reports we’ve seen from a major semiconductor company this year. Around the same time, Michael Burry disclosed that he had taken the opposite side of the trade, calling Micron a company that “defines cyclical like no other.” The market quickly reacted. Micron fell...