A Trade So Unusual.
SpaceX reported its first-ever earnings tonight. Revenue beat, EBITDA beat, and the AI segment’s operating loss came in smaller than feared
Hours before the numbers dropped, someone built a $20 million options position on a strike price almost nobody thinks the stock will hit — unless it was never meant to be a bet on the stock at all.
SpaceX traded around $125 today. That strike requires the stock to nearly triple in four trading days.
Nobody knows who’s behind it.
Here’s the full picture. ⇩
SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*
President Trump just went on record: the AI data center buildout sweeping America is unstoppable. s Communities across the country have been pushing back – over rising electricity bills, strained water supplies, and projects landing next door to homes and schools. But the AI buildout isn’t slowing down. In fact, Elon Musk’s master plan – hidden inside SpaceX – avoids every obstacle. Analyst Rob Spivey says folks who understand what Elon is building – and why – could make a lot of money in the right stocks.
Get the name and ticker of the No. 1 stock at the center of it FREE (not Tesla or SpaceX).
The Mystery.
Somebody — or some desk — has built up nearly $20 million in notional exposure on SPCX $330-strike calls expiring this Friday, August 7.
For that bet to pay off, the stock needs to nearly triple from around $119.59 in four trading days. Four. Not four months. Four days.
For context, that’s the kind of strike price you’d normally see traded by accident, or by someone who fat-fingered a zero.
Except this wasn’t one buyer on one bad Tuesday — it’s more than 450,000 open positions, at least seven times the volume of the next most popular contract on the whole chain.
On Monday alone, roughly 90,000 contracts changed hands across hundreds of separate transactions. Whoever this is, they’ve been quietly, patiently, unbothered-ly buying since before anyone noticed.
That’s not how retail trades…
SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*
The Prophet’s” #1 Retirement Stock Right Now — Free
Whitney Tilson — the man CNBC calls “The Prophet,” twice featured on 60 Minutes — is revealing the name and ticker of what he calls America’s Greatest Retirement Stock.
Completely free.
It’s already outperformed Apple, Amazon, and the S&P 500 combined…
A billionaire put 60% of his $9 billion fund into it…
And Google’s former CEO just partnered with it directly.
Right now it’s trading at a rare discount.
Who it isn’t — and the leading theory for who it is.
SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba looked at the flow and ruled out the usual suspects one by one:
→ not retail,
→ not a hedge fund,
→ not a market-maker.
What’s left points somewhere more institutional: a bank hedging something else entirely, using SpaceX calls as cheap protection against a short position or a structured product tied to the stock.
SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*
Try out Musk’s new AI agent – before his big announcement
Elon just created a device he believes will be “the biggest product ever.”
He thinks it could 70x investors’ money.
And he’s about to make a major announcement…
By the end of this month.
Maybe even tomorrow on X.
He’s going to make this game-changing device available to the public for the first time.
He has to sell 1 million to become a trillionaire.
Would you bet against him?
Click here to find out how you can claim a stake in this 70x AI agent.
It’s Not a Bet, It’s Insurance ↓
✱ Almost nobody expects SPCX to reach $330 by Friday.
Instead, the leading theory is that someone needed a very cheap lottery ticket to protect against the unlikely, catastrophic version of this week—and the $330 calls were the bargain-bin way to buy it.
That explanation also fits the math.
Jay Pestrichelli of Tidal Financial Group, which oversees roughly $60 billion, noted the trade doesn’t need SpaceX anywhere near $330 to work. A rally to around $215 by Wednesday morning, paired with the right volatility spike, could already make the position profitable.
!!! Suddenly, the $330 strike looks less like a moonshot and more like the bargain bin. When you’re buying protection instead of making a prediction, the cheapest options are often the ones furthest out of the money.
SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*
New Patent Reveals Elon Musk’s Next Breakthrough: M.A.G.I.
This new form of AI could create so much wealth that Elon Musk calls it “an infinite money glitch.”
The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, is on record predicting this will be “the next wave” of the AI boom…
And that it will launch “the next multi-trillion-dollar industry.”
Which is why Jeff Brown is recommending this little-known Elon Musk supplier that’s at the center of this revolution.
⚠️ Why The Highest Strike Is The Giveaway.
Think of an option as buying the right to purchase a stock at a specific price before a certain date.
The further that price sits above today’s stock price, the less likely the market believes it is to happen before the option expires. Because the odds are lower, the option costs less.
That’s why the $330 calls were among the cheapest on the board. The market simply didn’t expect SpaceX to get anywhere close.
But if your goal is to insure against an unlikely, high-impact move, that’s exactly what makes them attractive. You’re not paying for the most likely outcome—you’re paying for protection against the one almost nobody expects.
In that context, the $330 strike isn’t necessarily a prediction. It’s simply the cheapest way to buy that insurance.
The Number You’ll Remember: 133
One number explains why this trade even exists.
133.
That’s SpaceX’s implied volatility—a measure of how much the options market expects the stock to move. At 133, it’s higher than almost every stock in the S&P 500, second only to SanDisk. The options market is effectively pricing in a 14% move on earnings alone.
When traders expect a stock to swing that violently, even far-away strike prices become more valuable. A $330 call still looks unlikely to finish in the money, but it doesn’t have to. If volatility jumps or the stock makes a much bigger-than-expected move, the option itself can rise sharply in value long before expiration.
That’s why the $330 strike isn’t necessarily the story.
The volatility is.
Don’t forget to cast your vote 👇
Lesson Of The Day:
Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.
Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.
💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:
Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?
Just drop your request in the comments here.
P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!
