Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇

source: NYTimes

In four words: Bad jobs. Strong dollar.

And suddenly the market had two problems to solve.

Because in the normal playbook, those two things rarely show up together.

Normally the logic works like this:

Weak payrolls → weaker economy → Fed more likely to cut rates → lower yields → weaker dollar.

This time, however, just as the payroll report disappointed, the U.S. dollar was having its strongest week in more than a year.

Part of that strength came from the usual suspect: geopolitics. As tensions in the Middle East intensified, global capital did what it has done for decades during uncertain moments — it moved toward the dollar.

That creates a strange situation.

Weak economic data normally helps gold and other rate-sensitive assets.
But a stronger dollar pulls in the opposite direction, because commodities priced in dollars suddenly become more expensive for buyers around the world.

So instead of one clear signal, markets got two signals pointing in different directions.

And that’s where the story really begins.

Because when investors have to choose between growth fears and currency strength, markets tend to get a little… indecisive.

Here’s the story ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by ParadigmPress*

Public Law 63-43: Trump’s Secret Weapon to Win the Midterms?

Most pundits are predicting the coming midterm elections will be a disaster for Republicans.

But the 112-year-old little-known law you see below….
Could save Trump from this disaster

Click here to see the details…

Because Public Law 63-43 could also have a huge impact on your wealth in 2026…

Starting on May 15th.

Regards,
Jim Rickards
_{Former advisor to the CIA, the Pentagon and the White House}

Once the payroll numbers hit the tape, gold reacted almost immediately.

Economists had expected the U.S. economy to add about 59,000 jobs last month.

Instead, the report showed the opposite.

The economy lost 92,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%.

• Health Care (−28k): Mostly temporary strike activity at physician offices, which removed workers from payroll counts for the month.

• Information / Tech (−11k): Ongoing restructuring and layoffs as tech companies continue correcting post-pandemic over-hiring and improving efficiency.

• Federal Government (−10k): Budget tightening and program roll-offs, with federal employment now down about 330k since Oct 2024.

Under normal circumstances, that kind of data would be music to gold investors’ ears.

And for a moment, the metal behaved exactly as the textbook would suggest.

Spot gold jumped roughly 1.4% on Friday, climbing back above $5,150 per ounce.

But the rally ran into a problem.

Because at the exact same time gold was reacting to the jobs report, another market was moving much faster.

The U.S. dollar.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by Porter&Co*

Over the last thirty years, a peculiar gold signal has flashed three times.

Each time, gold soared in price. The first time was back in the 2000s: the dot-com mania was nearing its peak, money was flooding into any and all tech stocks, and equity valuations were trading at nosebleed levels.

At the time, gold was despised by Wall Street.

Goldman Sachs called it “a 19th-century asset.”

One of Merrill Lynch’s top investment analysts said that it was only for “grandmothers and conspiracy theorists.”

And two of America’s leading economists at the time called it a “barren asset.”

The second signal came in 2008, amidst the chaos of the financial crisis, gold prices dropped briefly below $800 an ounce…

And finally, the third signal:

Three “all-in” moments, each of which seemed crazy at the time.

But for one man, it was the most obvious move to make.

Thanks to this little-known gold signal, he made an absolute killing each of the three times this gold signal flashed.

And right now, it is again predicting a shocking new price for gold in the near future.

Click here to see what this signal is saying about gold’s price next year.

While gold was reacting to the payroll data, the U.S. dollar was quietly having its strongest week in more than a year.

And that matters more than it sounds.

Gold and the dollar usually move in opposite directions. When the dollar strengthens, commodities priced in dollars become more expensive for international buyers, which tends to weigh on demand.

Part of the move came from geopolitics.

As the conflict in Iran expanded, global investors moved capital into the dollar.

So gold ended up caught in a tug of war.

Weak economic data was pulling the metal higher.

But a surging dollar was pushing back just as hard.

And … the dollar won.

Despite Friday’s bounce, gold is still heading toward its first weekly decline in five weeks.

source: Apmex

Just as investors were digesting the payroll report, another variable moved sharply.

Oil.

Prices are now heading toward their largest weekly gain since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

And when oil jumps quickly, investors begin recalculating …

Inflation.

Higher energy prices ripple through transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods. That complicates the central bank outlook — especially at a moment when the labor market is already showing signs of slowing.

So the market suddenly found itself juggling two forces:

Slowing growth on one side.
Rising cost pressures on the other.

Not the most comfortable combination.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by OxfordClub*

Strange New Wonder Metal Outperforms Silicon Up to 100X

Nvidia just partnered with the tiny company that holds 250 patents.
Here’s why it could become the most important stock in the world.

Crypto reflected that uncertainty almost immediately.

Bitcoin briefly rallied above $70,000 earlier in the week, reaching nearly $74,000 before momentum faded.

By Friday, the asset had slipped back toward $68,000, unable to hold the psychological $70K level.

Options markets tell the same story.

A large cluster of hedging activity has formed around $60,000, suggesting traders are preparing for downside volatility even as some investors continue to bet on a breakout toward $75K–$76K.

In other words, conviction is split.

Some traders see the rally as the start of the next leg higher.

Others see it as nothing more than a relief bounce inside a volatile macro environment.

Just as markets were digesting those signals, another development caught investors’ attention.

BlackRock limited withdrawals from one of its $26 billion private credit funds after redemption requests surged.

Investors asked to withdraw roughly 9.3% of the fund, but the firm capped redemptions at 5%, returning about $620 million instead of the full amount requested.

This kind of gating isn’t unusual in private credit.

These funds invest in long-term loans that can’t easily be sold overnight, so many of them limit withdrawals during periods of heavy redemption requests.

Still, the move highlighted a broader issue.

The private credit market has ballooned to roughly $1.8 trillion, and episodes like this remind investors that semi-liquid assets aren’t always liquid when volatility appears.

It’s not necessarily a crisis.

But it’s a signal.

And markets tend to pay attention to signals.

By the time the payroll report arrived, markets had already been digesting a series of signals.

→ Gold reacting to softer growth expectations
→ Oil rising on geopolitical risk
→ Bitcoin struggling to sustain momentum
→ Private credit investors requesting liquidity

Individually, none of these developments defines the macro outlook.

But together they suggest investors are beginning to reassess the balance between growth, inflation, and liquidity.

And when growth slows, inflation pressures rise, and liquidity starts getting tested, investors tend to reduce risk.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here. 

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe to the TradingLessons and get our daily market breakdown delivered straight to your inbox.

❗ P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇

source: NYTimes

In four words: Bad jobs. Strong dollar.

And suddenly the market had two problems to solve.

Because in the normal playbook, those two things rarely show up together.

Normally the logic works like this:

Weak payrolls → weaker economy → Fed more likely to cut rates → lower yields → weaker dollar.

This time, however, just as the payroll report disappointed, the U.S. dollar was having its strongest week in more than a year.

Part of that strength came from the usual suspect: geopolitics. As tensions in the Middle East intensified, global capital did what it has done for decades during uncertain moments — it moved toward the dollar.

That creates a strange situation.

Weak economic data normally helps gold and other rate-sensitive assets.
But a stronger dollar pulls in the opposite direction, because commodities priced in dollars suddenly become more expensive for buyers around the world.

So instead of one clear signal, markets got two signals pointing in different directions.

And that’s where the story really begins.

Because when investors have to choose between growth fears and currency strength, markets tend to get a little… indecisive.

Here’s the story ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by ParadigmPress*

Public Law 63-43: Trump’s Secret Weapon to Win the Midterms?

Most pundits are predicting the coming midterm elections will be a disaster for Republicans.

But the 112-year-old little-known law you see below….
Could save Trump from this disaster

Click here to see the details…

Because Public Law 63-43 could also have a huge impact on your wealth in 2026…

Starting on May 15th.

Regards,
Jim Rickards
_{Former advisor to the CIA, the Pentagon and the White House}

Once the payroll numbers hit the tape, gold reacted almost immediately.

Economists had expected the U.S. economy to add about 59,000 jobs last month.

Instead, the report showed the opposite.

The economy lost 92,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%.

• Health Care (−28k): Mostly temporary strike activity at physician offices, which removed workers from payroll counts for the month.

• Information / Tech (−11k): Ongoing restructuring and layoffs as tech companies continue correcting post-pandemic over-hiring and improving efficiency.

• Federal Government (−10k): Budget tightening and program roll-offs, with federal employment now down about 330k since Oct 2024.

Under normal circumstances, that kind of data would be music to gold investors’ ears.

And for a moment, the metal behaved exactly as the textbook would suggest.

Spot gold jumped roughly 1.4% on Friday, climbing back above $5,150 per ounce.

But the rally ran into a problem.

Because at the exact same time gold was reacting to the jobs report, another market was moving much faster.

The U.S. dollar.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by Porter&Co*

Over the last thirty years, a peculiar gold signal has flashed three times.

Each time, gold soared in price. The first time was back in the 2000s: the dot-com mania was nearing its peak, money was flooding into any and all tech stocks, and equity valuations were trading at nosebleed levels.

At the time, gold was despised by Wall Street.

Goldman Sachs called it “a 19th-century asset.”

One of Merrill Lynch’s top investment analysts said that it was only for “grandmothers and conspiracy theorists.”

And two of America’s leading economists at the time called it a “barren asset.”

The second signal came in 2008, amidst the chaos of the financial crisis, gold prices dropped briefly below $800 an ounce…

And finally, the third signal:

Three “all-in” moments, each of which seemed crazy at the time.

But for one man, it was the most obvious move to make.

Thanks to this little-known gold signal, he made an absolute killing each of the three times this gold signal flashed.

And right now, it is again predicting a shocking new price for gold in the near future.

Click here to see what this signal is saying about gold’s price next year.

While gold was reacting to the payroll data, the U.S. dollar was quietly having its strongest week in more than a year.

And that matters more than it sounds.

Gold and the dollar usually move in opposite directions. When the dollar strengthens, commodities priced in dollars become more expensive for international buyers, which tends to weigh on demand.

Part of the move came from geopolitics.

As the conflict in Iran expanded, global investors moved capital into the dollar.

So gold ended up caught in a tug of war.

Weak economic data was pulling the metal higher.

But a surging dollar was pushing back just as hard.

And … the dollar won.

Despite Friday’s bounce, gold is still heading toward its first weekly decline in five weeks.

source: Apmex

Just as investors were digesting the payroll report, another variable moved sharply.

Oil.

Prices are now heading toward their largest weekly gain since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

And when oil jumps quickly, investors begin recalculating …

Inflation.

Higher energy prices ripple through transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods. That complicates the central bank outlook — especially at a moment when the labor market is already showing signs of slowing.

So the market suddenly found itself juggling two forces:

Slowing growth on one side.
Rising cost pressures on the other.

Not the most comfortable combination.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by OxfordClub*

Strange New Wonder Metal Outperforms Silicon Up to 100X

Nvidia just partnered with the tiny company that holds 250 patents.
Here’s why it could become the most important stock in the world.

Crypto reflected that uncertainty almost immediately.

Bitcoin briefly rallied above $70,000 earlier in the week, reaching nearly $74,000 before momentum faded.

By Friday, the asset had slipped back toward $68,000, unable to hold the psychological $70K level.

Options markets tell the same story.

A large cluster of hedging activity has formed around $60,000, suggesting traders are preparing for downside volatility even as some investors continue to bet on a breakout toward $75K–$76K.

In other words, conviction is split.

Some traders see the rally as the start of the next leg higher.

Others see it as nothing more than a relief bounce inside a volatile macro environment.

Just as markets were digesting those signals, another development caught investors’ attention.

BlackRock limited withdrawals from one of its $26 billion private credit funds after redemption requests surged.

Investors asked to withdraw roughly 9.3% of the fund, but the firm capped redemptions at 5%, returning about $620 million instead of the full amount requested.

This kind of gating isn’t unusual in private credit.

These funds invest in long-term loans that can’t easily be sold overnight, so many of them limit withdrawals during periods of heavy redemption requests.

Still, the move highlighted a broader issue.

The private credit market has ballooned to roughly $1.8 trillion, and episodes like this remind investors that semi-liquid assets aren’t always liquid when volatility appears.

It’s not necessarily a crisis.

But it’s a signal.

And markets tend to pay attention to signals.

By the time the payroll report arrived, markets had already been digesting a series of signals.

→ Gold reacting to softer growth expectations
→ Oil rising on geopolitical risk
→ Bitcoin struggling to sustain momentum
→ Private credit investors requesting liquidity

Individually, none of these developments defines the macro outlook.

But together they suggest investors are beginning to reassess the balance between growth, inflation, and liquidity.

And when growth slows, inflation pressures rise, and liquidity starts getting tested, investors tend to reduce risk.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here. 

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe to the TradingLessons and get our daily market breakdown delivered straight to your inbox.

❗ P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇

Inflation rarely fades in a straight line.

Economists often describe the process as uneven. Prices cool for a period of time, the pressure inside the system begins to ease, and markets gradually grow comfortable that the worst is behind them.

Then something shifts.

For much of the past year, investors believed the U.S. economy was moving through that cooling phase. Inflation had fallen sharply from its pandemic peak, Treasury yields drifted lower, and expectations slowly formed that the Federal Reserve might eventually have room to begin cutting interest rates.

The process was gradual, but the direction looked clear.

That narrative started to wobble this week.

Since tensions escalated in the Middle East, crude oil prices have jumped roughly 14–15%, forcing markets to reconsider how durable the recent progress on inflation might actually be.

Because energy has a unique role in the global economy.

Unlike most commodities, oil doesn’t simply move through supply chains — it powers them. Ships burn it, trucks rely on it, airplanes consume enormous amounts of it, and the cost of moving goods across the world rises with it.

When oil climbs quickly, the effect rarely stays confined to the energy market.

And that’s exactly why the Federal Reserve is watching this move so closely.

Here’s the story ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by OxfordClub*

Strange New Wonder Metal Outperforms Silicon Up to 100X

Nvidia just partnered with the tiny company that holds 250 patents.
Here’s why it could become the most important stock in the world.

The concern isn’t just the price of oil itself.

It’s how quickly that price spreads through the economy.

Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% rise in oil prices could increase headline CPI by roughly 0.28 percentage points.

That may sound small, but when inflation is already hovering near 3%, even modest pressure makes it harder for policymakers to push prices toward their 2% target.

In more extreme scenarios, the effects can become much larger.

Apollo Global economist Torsten Sløk estimates that if crude prices were to jump $50 per barrel, inflation could temporarily rise by around one percentage point above baseline levels.

! For central banks, that’s the nightmare scenario: inflation that begins to move higher again just as policy makers were preparing to ease.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by BehindtheMarket*

A U.S. “birthright” claim worth trillions – activated quietly

A tiny government task force working out of a strip mall just finished a 20-year mission.

And with almost no media coverage, they confirmed one of the largest U.S. territorial expansions in modern history…

A resource claim worth an estimated $500 trillion.

Thanks to sovereign U.S. law, this isn’t just a national asset.

It’s an American birthright.

That means every citizen now has the legal right to stake a claim…

But very few even know the opportunity exists.

If you want to see how you can get in line for your portion of this record-breaking windfall…

I’ve assembled everything you need to see inside a new, time-sensitive briefing:

Get all the details here – while the claim window remains open.

Financial markets have started responding to that possibility.

Treasury yields moved higher this week as traders reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. Measures of inflation expectations have also begun climbing, with the two-year breakeven rate rising toward roughly 2.9% from around 2.3% earlier this year.

Fed officials are acknowledging the uncertainty.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said geopolitical developments mean policymakers need “a lot more data” before committing to rate cuts.

New York Fed President John Williams echoed that view, noting that energy prices could influence the near-term inflation outlook depending on how persistent they become.

For now, traders still expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting.

But the path beyond that has become less certain.

Historically, central banks often look past temporary energy shocks.

If oil spikes briefly and then retreats, policymakers typically focus on underlying inflation trends.

The risk emerges when energy prices remain elevated long enough to influence expectations.

If consumers begin assuming gasoline, transportation, and food costs will keep rising, those expectations can feed into wage negotiations and business pricing decisions.

At that point, inflation stops behaving like a temporary shock.

It becomes self-reinforcing.

And when that happens, central banks usually become far more cautious about easing policy.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by OxfordClub*

How Mitt Romney Turned $450K Into Up to $100 Million (Tax-Free)

It wasn’t stocks. It wasn’t real estate. It was a little-known investment vehicle that turned Mitt Romney’s $450,000 into as much as $100 million and Peter Thiel used to turn $2,000 into $5 billion within two decades. Now, thanks to a new executive order, regular Americans can access the same type of investment.
Get more details here >>

Higher oil prices rarely move markets evenly.

Some industries benefit almost immediately.
Others feel the pressure within hours.

And as crude climbed to its highest level since early 2025, energy stocks quickly became one of the few bright spots in the market.

U.S. oil and gas producers led the advance:

→ APA Corporation APA ( ▲ 4.12% ) ▲ $32.26
→ Devon Energy DVN ( ▲ 2.37% ) ▲ $44.52
→ Coterra Energy CTRA ( ▲ 1.96% ) ▲ $31.15

Natural-gas exposure also helped lift producers after Qatar temporarily halted LNG liquefaction, sending global gas prices higher.

Refiners joined the move as well.

Higher crude prices can squeeze some parts of the economy, but they often boost refining margins and fuel marketing.

→ Valero Energy VLO ( ▲ 1.08% ) ▲ $226.24
→ Phillips 66 PSX ( ▲ 1.04% ) ▲ $166.44 (+1.06%)

Meanwhile, industries that depend heavily on fuel costs moved in the opposite direction.

Airlines, which treat jet fuel as one of their largest operating expenses, fell sharply:

→ Allegiant Travel ALGT ( ▼ 8.64% ) ▼ $84.13
→ Frontier Group Holdings ULCC ( ▼ 5.13% ) ▼ $3.70
→ Delta Air Lines DAL ( ▼ 3.95% ) ▼ $61.32
→ United Airlines UAL ( ▼ 5.03% ) ▼ $95.29
→ American Airlines AAL ( ▼ 5.38% ) ▼ $11.77

Retailers also struggled as investors considered the consumer impact.

Higher gasoline prices often act like a tax on household spending, leaving less income for discretionary purchases.

→ Walmart WMT ( ▼ 3.53% ) ▼ $123.00
→ Dollar General DG ( ▼ 3.27% ) ▼ $146.15

Geopolitical headlines often dominate the news cycle.

But for markets, the real signal usually appears somewhere else.

This time, it’s in energy.

When oil rises sharply:

→ Inflation expectations move higher
→ Bond yields climb
→ Rate cuts get pushed further into the future

Which means the most important chart for the Federal Reserve right now may not be the S&P 500.

It’s the price of crude. 

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe to the TradingLessons and get our daily market breakdown delivered straight to your inbox.

❗ P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇

Inflation rarely fades in a straight line.

Economists often describe the process as uneven. Prices cool for a period of time, the pressure inside the system begins to ease, and markets gradually grow comfortable that the worst is behind them.

Then something shifts.

For much of the past year, investors believed the U.S. economy was moving through that cooling phase. Inflation had fallen sharply from its pandemic peak, Treasury yields drifted lower, and expectations slowly formed that the Federal Reserve might eventually have room to begin cutting interest rates.

The process was gradual, but the direction looked clear.

That narrative started to wobble this week.

Since tensions escalated in the Middle East, crude oil prices have jumped roughly 14–15%, forcing markets to reconsider how durable the recent progress on inflation might actually be.

Because energy has a unique role in the global economy.

Unlike most commodities, oil doesn’t simply move through supply chains — it powers them. Ships burn it, trucks rely on it, airplanes consume enormous amounts of it, and the cost of moving goods across the world rises with it.

When oil climbs quickly, the effect rarely stays confined to the energy market.

And that’s exactly why the Federal Reserve is watching this move so closely.

Here’s the story ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by OxfordClub*

Strange New Wonder Metal Outperforms Silicon Up to 100X

Nvidia just partnered with the tiny company that holds 250 patents.
Here’s why it could become the most important stock in the world.

The concern isn’t just the price of oil itself.

It’s how quickly that price spreads through the economy.

Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% rise in oil prices could increase headline CPI by roughly 0.28 percentage points.

That may sound small, but when inflation is already hovering near 3%, even modest pressure makes it harder for policymakers to push prices toward their 2% target.

In more extreme scenarios, the effects can become much larger.

Apollo Global economist Torsten Sløk estimates that if crude prices were to jump $50 per barrel, inflation could temporarily rise by around one percentage point above baseline levels.

! For central banks, that’s the nightmare scenario: inflation that begins to move higher again just as policy makers were preparing to ease.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by BehindtheMarket*

A U.S. “birthright” claim worth trillions – activated quietly

A tiny government task force working out of a strip mall just finished a 20-year mission.

And with almost no media coverage, they confirmed one of the largest U.S. territorial expansions in modern history…

A resource claim worth an estimated $500 trillion.

Thanks to sovereign U.S. law, this isn’t just a national asset.

It’s an American birthright.

That means every citizen now has the legal right to stake a claim…

But very few even know the opportunity exists.

If you want to see how you can get in line for your portion of this record-breaking windfall…

I’ve assembled everything you need to see inside a new, time-sensitive briefing:

Get all the details here – while the claim window remains open.

Financial markets have started responding to that possibility.

Treasury yields moved higher this week as traders reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. Measures of inflation expectations have also begun climbing, with the two-year breakeven rate rising toward roughly 2.9% from around 2.3% earlier this year.

Fed officials are acknowledging the uncertainty.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said geopolitical developments mean policymakers need “a lot more data” before committing to rate cuts.

New York Fed President John Williams echoed that view, noting that energy prices could influence the near-term inflation outlook depending on how persistent they become.

For now, traders still expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting.

But the path beyond that has become less certain.

Historically, central banks often look past temporary energy shocks.

If oil spikes briefly and then retreats, policymakers typically focus on underlying inflation trends.

The risk emerges when energy prices remain elevated long enough to influence expectations.

If consumers begin assuming gasoline, transportation, and food costs will keep rising, those expectations can feed into wage negotiations and business pricing decisions.

At that point, inflation stops behaving like a temporary shock.

It becomes self-reinforcing.

And when that happens, central banks usually become far more cautious about easing policy.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by OxfordClub*

How Mitt Romney Turned $450K Into Up to $100 Million (Tax-Free)

It wasn’t stocks. It wasn’t real estate. It was a little-known investment vehicle that turned Mitt Romney’s $450,000 into as much as $100 million and Peter Thiel used to turn $2,000 into $5 billion within two decades. Now, thanks to a new executive order, regular Americans can access the same type of investment.
Get more details here >>

Higher oil prices rarely move markets evenly.

Some industries benefit almost immediately.
Others feel the pressure within hours.

And as crude climbed to its highest level since early 2025, energy stocks quickly became one of the few bright spots in the market.

U.S. oil and gas producers led the advance:

→ APA Corporation APA ( ▲ 4.12% ) ▲ $32.26
→ Devon Energy DVN ( ▲ 2.37% ) ▲ $44.52
→ Coterra Energy CTRA ( ▲ 1.96% ) ▲ $31.15

Natural-gas exposure also helped lift producers after Qatar temporarily halted LNG liquefaction, sending global gas prices higher.

Refiners joined the move as well.

Higher crude prices can squeeze some parts of the economy, but they often boost refining margins and fuel marketing.

→ Valero Energy VLO ( ▲ 1.08% ) ▲ $226.24
→ Phillips 66 PSX ( ▲ 1.04% ) ▲ $166.44 (+1.06%)

Meanwhile, industries that depend heavily on fuel costs moved in the opposite direction.

Airlines, which treat jet fuel as one of their largest operating expenses, fell sharply:

→ Allegiant Travel ALGT ( ▼ 8.64% ) ▼ $84.13
→ Frontier Group Holdings ULCC ( ▼ 5.13% ) ▼ $3.70
→ Delta Air Lines DAL ( ▼ 3.95% ) ▼ $61.32
→ United Airlines UAL ( ▼ 5.03% ) ▼ $95.29
→ American Airlines AAL ( ▼ 5.38% ) ▼ $11.77

Retailers also struggled as investors considered the consumer impact.

Higher gasoline prices often act like a tax on household spending, leaving less income for discretionary purchases.

→ Walmart WMT ( ▼ 3.53% ) ▼ $123.00
→ Dollar General DG ( ▼ 3.27% ) ▼ $146.15

Geopolitical headlines often dominate the news cycle.

But for markets, the real signal usually appears somewhere else.

This time, it’s in energy.

When oil rises sharply:

→ Inflation expectations move higher
→ Bond yields climb
→ Rate cuts get pushed further into the future

Which means the most important chart for the Federal Reserve right now may not be the S&P 500.

It’s the price of crude. 

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe to the TradingLessons and get our daily market breakdown delivered straight to your inbox.

❗ P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇

Men building the San Francisco Bay Bridge

There’s a concept in structural engineering called “load sharing.”

When a bridge is built correctly, no single beam carries the full weight. The stress distributes itself across multiple supports. If one area flexes, another absorbs part of the strain. The structure holds because pressure disperses.

But when stress begins concentrating instead of dispersing, small weaknesses become catastrophic ones. What once felt stable can suddenly look fragile simply because the distribution changed.

For most of the past year, financial markets have behaved like a well-designed bridge.

Technology surged while defensives cooled. Energy rallied while growth paused.
And when geopolitical tension flared, gold caught a bid.
And when equities wobbled, Treasuries often steadied the tape.
Pressure rotated rather than accumulated.

That dispersion kept volatility contained. It made pullbacks feel manageable.

This week, the pattern shifted.

→ Gold fell sharply even as geopolitical tension intensified.
→ Equities declined broadly.
→ Long-duration Treasuries offered little relief.
→The US dollar, meanwhile, surged toward multi-month highs.

Instead of stress spreading across supports, it began concentrating.

And when that happens in markets, correlations rise.

Here’s the story ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by BrownstoneResearch*

Elon Musk’s New $1 Quadrillion Opportunity

Elon Musk is about to take SpaceX public as part of his plan to unlock the full power of artificial intelligence.

Elon is predicting this will help unleash a $1 quadrillion new wealth wave.

That would be enough to send a check for $2.8 million to every single man, woman, and child in America.

That’s how big this opportunity is.

Click here to get the details and I’ll show you how to claim your stake… starting with just $500.

For most of this bull market, low correlations have been an invisible stabilizer.

Mega-cap stocks moved independently. Sector leadership rotated. Weakness in one pocket rarely infected the entire system.

That’s what kept index-level volatility surprisingly contained, even as valuations stretched and positioning grew crowded.

When correlations are low, markets can absorb shocks.

When correlations rise, markets transmit them.

This week wasn’t just about equities falling.

source: Sherwood

It was about traditional offsets failing at the same time.

→ The S&P 500 declined.
→ Gold dropped nearly 4% — its sharpest one-day slide in weeks.
→ Silver fell even harder.
→ Long-duration Treasuries offered little insulation.
→The US dollar surged toward a three-month high.

That combination is rare.

Since Bitcoin ETFs began trading in early 2024, there have only been a handful of sessions where stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and long bonds all moved lower together.

Those sessions tend to mark moments when liquidity overrides narrative.

! Now here’s the important distinction.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by OxfordClub*

How Mitt Romney Turned $450K Into Up to $100 Million (Tax-Free)

It wasn’t stocks. It wasn’t real estate. It was a little-known investment vehicle that turned Mitt Romney’s $450,000 into as much as $100 million and Peter Thiel used to turn $2,000 into $5 billion within two decades. Now, thanks to a new executive order, regular Americans can access the same type of investment.
Get more details here >>

Geopolitical tension typically introduces a risk premium into gold and Treasuries. That’s the textbook response.

But this time, the dollar moved first — and forcefully.

When the dollar strengthens rapidly, it tightens global financial conditions. Commodities feel pressure. Foreign holders of Treasuries adjust. Funding costs shift. Hedging relationships weaken.

Now, Gold falls because liquidity became the dominant variable.

That’s the shift.

The war may have been the trigger.

The dollar was the transmission mechanism.

And rising correlations were the result.

Yes, but partially.

Wars move prices, shift sentiment, reprice commodities, and create short-term volatility.

However, what makes this episode different is not that markets fell. It’s that they fell together.

That kind of alignment usually appears when risk was already tightly packed and volatility had been running below its natural level. In those conditions, it takes a trigger.

The geopolitical escalation may have provided the headline.

But the magnitude of the move suggests the market was already leaning in one direction.

Low volatility can create confidence. Confidence can create concentration. Concentration can create fragility.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by BrownstoneResearch*

Urgent update on AI bubble

Are we in an AI bubble?

Should you take action quickly, before we see a crash?
The time has come for answers to these serious questions.

That’s why we just flew in the foremost expert on AI.

His answer may totally surprise you.

The question now is whether markets regain separation.

If this was primarily event-driven, you should begin to see assets resume their roles. → → Gold stabilizes even if equities remain soft.
→ Treasuries absorb part of the pressure.
→ The dollar’s advance slows as liquidity conditions normalize.

If instead correlations remain elevated and the dollar continues strengthening, that would suggest the adjustment is still working through positioning rather than simply reacting to news.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe to the TradingLessons and get our daily market breakdown delivered straight to your inbox.

❗ P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇

Uneasy

When the tide pulls back, it doesn’t expose everything at once.

It reveals the most fragile footing first.

Loose sand shifts.

Unsecured boats tilt.

Anything dependent on calm water suddenly looks unstable.

Over the weekend, geopolitical risk surged after US military strikes against Iran.

→ Oil jumped nearly 7%.
→ Gold climbed.
→ The dollar strengthened.

But what mattered most wasn’t the headline.

It was how equities responded when the tide moved.

Here’s what got exposed ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by ParadigmPress*

Congress to feature Trump on $100 Bill?
A shocking new plan was just introduced in Washington.  The idea is to celebrate Trump’s new “golden age” by placing him on the $100 bill.

As you’ll see, it has little to do with the new Crypto Reserve…

Or Trump’s ambitious plan for Artificial Intelligence…

Former Presidential Advisor, Jim Rickards says, “Trump’s crowning achievement will be much, much bigger.”

In the months ahead, he predicts, the government will release a massive multi-trillion-dollar asset which it has held back for more than a century. And this will give ordinary investors a chance to strike it rich.
Click here to see the full details.

The most speculative corners of the market felt it first.

AI infrastructure plays.
Quantum computing firms.
High price-to-sales energy-adjacent names.

Data center & AI infrastructure

→ Nebius (NBIS) ▼ -1.12%
→ CoreWeave (CRWV) ▼ -2.11%
→ Applied Digital (APLD) ▼ -1.36%
→ Cipher Mining (CIFR) ▼ -0.06%
→ IREN (IREN) ▼ -1.15%

AI energy & thematic plays

→ Bloom Energy (BE) ▼ -5.61%
→ Plug Power (PLUG) ▼ -1.12%
→ Oklo (OKLO) ▼ -2.02%

Quantum computing

→ D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) ▼ -0.64%
→ IonQ (IONQ) ▼ -0.64%
→ Rigetti Computing (RGTI) ▼ -0.95%

Other AI-linked names

→ SoundHound AI (SOUN) ▼ -1.05%
→ Tempus AI (TEM) ▼ -0.23%

This was about what kind of risk the market no longer wanted to hold.

Most of these names share the same traits:

→ Earnings that swing wildly
→ Heavy speculative trading
→ Big daily price moves
→ Valuations built more on future potential than present cash flow

When uncertainty rises, those traits stop being attractive and become liabilities.

So the selling was about fragility vs. resilience.

And when the tide shifts, the fragile names move first.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by OxfordClub*

The Most Important Company in the World by Next Year?

Silicon is dead. And one tiny company just killed it.

Here’s why this one company – that just partnered with Nvidia – could become the most important company in the world.

While high-beta names stumbled, other parts of the market found footing.

Energy

→ Exxon Mobil (XOM) ▲ +1.21%

As crude spiked nearly 7%, integrated energy exposure offered immediate earnings leverage.

Defense contractors

→ Lockheed Martin (LMT) ▲ +3.04%
→ RTX (RTX) ▲ +4.56%
→ Northrop Grumman (NOC) ▲ +5.33%

When geopolitical risk rises, defense spending expectations rise with it.

Satellite & space infrastructure

→ Planet Labs (PL) ▲ +8.49%
→ AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) ▲ +8.25%
→ Firefly Aerospace (FLY) ▲ +8.56%
→ Intuitive Machines (LUNR) ▲ +8.07%

Modern conflict depends on imaging, surveillance, and communications — and markets price that quickly.

Intelligence & government AI

→ Palantir Technologies (PLTR) ▲ +5.13%

After months of cooling retail momentum, its defense and government exposure came back into focus.

Iran is the world’s fifth-largest oil producer and borders the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption flows.

When that chokepoint enters the conversation, energy becomes the fulcrum.
Oil becomes the market’s first transmission mechanism. Prices adjust quickly because energy is embedded across the economy. Higher oil prices ripple through inflation expectations, transport costs, and corporate margins.

And when rate expectations shift, equity valuations follow.

Even if conflict de-escalates, markets rarely wait for certainty before repricing risk. They build in a premium first.

And that repricing shows up immediately in the most extended, most volatile parts of the equity market.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by TheOxfordClub*

How Mitt Romney Turned $450K Into Up to $100 Million (Tax-Free)

It wasn’t stocks. It wasn’t real estate. It was a little-known investment vehicle that turned Mitt Romney’s $450,000 into as much as $100 million and Peter Thiel used to turn $2,000 into $5 billion within two decades. Now, thanks to a new executive order, regular Americans can access the same type of investment.
Get more details here >>

When uncertainty enters — whether through geopolitics, energy shocks, or shifting rate expectations — capital moves to:

→ Toward what generates cash today.
→ Toward what benefits from higher energy prices.
→ Toward what governments are likely to spend on.

Defense firms. Energy producers. Companies with balance-sheet strength.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe to the TradingLessons and get our daily market breakdown delivered straight to your inbox.

❗ P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇

Uneasy

When the tide pulls back, it doesn’t expose everything at once.

It reveals the most fragile footing first.

Loose sand shifts.

Unsecured boats tilt.

Anything dependent on calm water suddenly looks unstable.

Over the weekend, geopolitical risk surged after US military strikes against Iran.

→ Oil jumped nearly 7%.
→ Gold climbed.
→ The dollar strengthened.

But what mattered most wasn’t the headline.

It was how equities responded when the tide moved.

Here’s what got exposed ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by ParadigmPress*

Congress to feature Trump on $100 Bill?
A shocking new plan was just introduced in Washington.  The idea is to celebrate Trump’s new “golden age” by placing him on the $100 bill.

As you’ll see, it has little to do with the new Crypto Reserve…

Or Trump’s ambitious plan for Artificial Intelligence…

Former Presidential Advisor, Jim Rickards says, “Trump’s crowning achievement will be much, much bigger.”

In the months ahead, he predicts, the government will release a massive multi-trillion-dollar asset which it has held back for more than a century. And this will give ordinary investors a chance to strike it rich.
Click here to see the full details.

The most speculative corners of the market felt it first.

AI infrastructure plays.
Quantum computing firms.
High price-to-sales energy-adjacent names.

Data center & AI infrastructure

→ Nebius (NBIS) ▼ -1.12%
→ CoreWeave (CRWV) ▼ -2.11%
→ Applied Digital (APLD) ▼ -1.36%
→ Cipher Mining (CIFR) ▼ -0.06%
→ IREN (IREN) ▼ -1.15%

AI energy & thematic plays

→ Bloom Energy (BE) ▼ -5.61%
→ Plug Power (PLUG) ▼ -1.12%
→ Oklo (OKLO) ▼ -2.02%

Quantum computing

→ D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) ▼ -0.64%
→ IonQ (IONQ) ▼ -0.64%
→ Rigetti Computing (RGTI) ▼ -0.95%

Other AI-linked names

→ SoundHound AI (SOUN) ▼ -1.05%
→ Tempus AI (TEM) ▼ -0.23%

This was about what kind of risk the market no longer wanted to hold.

Most of these names share the same traits:

→ Earnings that swing wildly
→ Heavy speculative trading
→ Big daily price moves
→ Valuations built more on future potential than present cash flow

When uncertainty rises, those traits stop being attractive and become liabilities.

So the selling was about fragility vs. resilience.

And when the tide shifts, the fragile names move first.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by OxfordClub*

The Most Important Company in the World by Next Year?

Silicon is dead. And one tiny company just killed it.

Here’s why this one company – that just partnered with Nvidia – could become the most important company in the world.

While high-beta names stumbled, other parts of the market found footing.

Energy

→ Exxon Mobil (XOM) ▲ +1.21%

As crude spiked nearly 7%, integrated energy exposure offered immediate earnings leverage.

Defense contractors

→ Lockheed Martin (LMT) ▲ +3.04%
→ RTX (RTX) ▲ +4.56%
→ Northrop Grumman (NOC) ▲ +5.33%

When geopolitical risk rises, defense spending expectations rise with it.

Satellite & space infrastructure

→ Planet Labs (PL) ▲ +8.49%
→ AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) ▲ +8.25%
→ Firefly Aerospace (FLY) ▲ +8.56%
→ Intuitive Machines (LUNR) ▲ +8.07%

Modern conflict depends on imaging, surveillance, and communications — and markets price that quickly.

Intelligence & government AI

→ Palantir Technologies (PLTR) ▲ +5.13%

After months of cooling retail momentum, its defense and government exposure came back into focus.

Iran is the world’s fifth-largest oil producer and borders the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption flows.

When that chokepoint enters the conversation, energy becomes the fulcrum.
Oil becomes the market’s first transmission mechanism. Prices adjust quickly because energy is embedded across the economy. Higher oil prices ripple through inflation expectations, transport costs, and corporate margins.

And when rate expectations shift, equity valuations follow.

Even if conflict de-escalates, markets rarely wait for certainty before repricing risk. They build in a premium first.

And that repricing shows up immediately in the most extended, most volatile parts of the equity market.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by TheOxfordClub*

How Mitt Romney Turned $450K Into Up to $100 Million (Tax-Free)

It wasn’t stocks. It wasn’t real estate. It was a little-known investment vehicle that turned Mitt Romney’s $450,000 into as much as $100 million and Peter Thiel used to turn $2,000 into $5 billion within two decades. Now, thanks to a new executive order, regular Americans can access the same type of investment.
Get more details here >>

When uncertainty enters — whether through geopolitics, energy shocks, or shifting rate expectations — capital moves to:

→ Toward what generates cash today.
→ Toward what benefits from higher energy prices.
→ Toward what governments are likely to spend on.

Defense firms. Energy producers. Companies with balance-sheet strength.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe to the TradingLessons and get our daily market breakdown delivered straight to your inbox.

❗ P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇

In 2008, a few people noticed the housing market was doing something… weird.

Most shrugged. One guy didn’t.

Michael Burry looked at mortgage bonds and saw physics breaking.

He bet against them and we know how that ended.

Now he’s staring at something else.

Chips.

The $95 Billion Question

Let’s start with the number that caught attention.

$16 billion.

That’s what Nvidia had in supply commitments a year ago.

Today?

$95 billion.

Total supply obligations now sit around $117 billion — nearly matching annual operating cash flow.

That’s acceleration.

And it’s what caught the attention of Michael Burry — the investor best known for spotting excess before it becomes obvious.

Here’s the story ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by Robinhood*

What Serious Crypto Trading Looks Like in 2026
Crypto has grown up — you need a platform that has to.

As the crypto market matures, active traders expect the same things they demand elsewhere: low costs, transparent fees, intuitive tools, and a reliable trading environment.

Robinhood Crypto puts crypto in a familiar investing framework, offering access to 45+ cryptocurrencies with one of the lowest costs on average — all inside a clean, reliable mobile and desktop crypto trading experience.

>> Discover Robinhood Crypto.

Burry called the surge “troubling.”

The issue isn’t demand today.

Demand for AI infrastructure is overwhelming.

The issue is commitment.

Nvidia has placed massive noncancelable purchase orders, meaning it is locking in supply before knowing exactly how final demand will look.

Part of this is structural — suppliers like TSMC now require longer-term agreements.

But structurally required doesn’t mean structurally risk-free.

When obligations grow sixfold in a year, flexibility shrinks.

And flexibility is what protects margins in downturns.

Burry didn’t just throw out a warning. He invoked history.

During the dot-com era, Cisco ramped supply commitments anticipating 50% annual growth.

→ Demand slowed.

Roughly 40% of inventory and supply obligations were written down when the cycle reversed.

→ The stock collapsed.

It wasn’t fraud but mismanagement.

It was overconfidence meeting slower reality.

That’s the historical echo Burry is highlighting.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by ElfLabs*

Lock in Your Bonus Shares Before The Clock Strikes Midnight

Did you know Disney Princess alone has generated over $45B in global revenue?!

Now, Elf Labs’ leadership team ($6B+ in licensing deals in their careers) orchestrated a 10-year legal effort securing rights to legendary character IP like Cinderella and Snow White.

They’re bringing them to life through multi-patented immersive technology across entertainment, gaming, and consumer products — a market estimated at over $2 trillion.

Their private round is over 96% full, and the company just reserved their Nasdaq ticker: $ELFS.

Lock in your shares before Midnight tonight.

Disclosure: This is a paid advertisement for Elf Labs’ Regulation CF offering. Please read the offering circular at elflabs.com
Timelines are subject to change. Listing on the NASDAQ is contingent upon necessary approvals, and reserving a ticker symbol does not guarantee a company’s public listing.

To be clear, Burry is not consensus.

Many analysts see the surge as strategic dominance.

Locking supply ensures Nvidia remains the most dependable provider in an AI market that some estimate could double toward $1.4 trillion in the coming years.

The argument is simple:

→ Demand shows no sign of slowing
→ AI infrastructure build-out is early
→ Supply control equals moat

To them, $95B is strategic.

In a world starving for GPUs, the company that locks supply wins.

Two interpretations.
Same data.

So Who’s Right?

That’s the wrong question.

The better one:

Are we in a supercycle? (supercycles absorb overcommitment)

Or a hot cycle? (hot cycles punish it)

So it’s about cycle durability.

High margins are easy when demand outstrips supply.

They’re harder when supply outstrips demand.

Right now, Nvidia’s margins reflect extreme demand and pricing power.

Burry’s warning is that extreme conditions rarely stay extreme forever.

The bullish view is that this time may be structurally different.

History says:
Cycles eventually normalize.

Innovation says:
Maybe not this one.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by TheOxfordClub*

How Mitt Romney Turned $450K Into Up to $100 Million (Tax-Free)

It wasn’t stocks. It wasn’t real estate. It was a little-known investment vehicle that turned Mitt Romney’s $450,000 into as much as $100 million and Peter Thiel used to turn $2,000 into $5 billion within two decades. Now, thanks to a new executive order, regular Americans can access the same type of investment.
Get more details here >>

Every boom starts with imagination. Then comes execution. Then comes scale.

Maybe this is the start of something historic.

Maybe it’s just another chapter in a very old cycle.

But there’s a moment in every major innovation wave when belief turns into certainty.

That’s when companies stop testing the waters and start pouring concrete.

Right now, Nvidia is pouring concrete.

Maybe that foundation supports a decade of exponential compute.

Maybe it turns out to be more than the cycle can carry.

The difference won’t show up tomorrow.

And somewhere in the middle of all this optimism, Michael Burry is just asking one old-fashioned question: what if the future isn’t perfectly priced?

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe to the TradingLessons and get our daily market breakdown delivered straight to your inbox.

❗ P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇

In every game, there are two ways to watch.

1 You can watch the highlights.

or

2 You can watch the scoreboard.

Highlights are exciting. Big plays. Big numbers. Big moments.

The scoreboard is quieter.

It only asks one question: Is the lead getting bigger?

Tonight, markets are watching Nvidia’s highlights.

But they’re also watching the scoreboard.

Here’s the story ⇩

For most of the last year, markets have revolved around one axis:

AI.

70% of S&P 500 companies are talking about it on earnings calls.

Only 1% are quantifying how it actually improves profits.

That gap is important. Because when narratives get louder than numbers, capital starts looking for something sturdier.

Enter: HALO.

Not the AI basket. The opposite.

Hard Assets. Low Obsolescence.

→ Railroads.
→ Fertilizers.
→ Oil rigs.
→ Physical infrastructure.

Companies like:

• Union Pacific
• Nutrien
• Exxon Mobil

Assets AI may optimize — but never replace.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by ParadigmPress*

Which Side of the AI Wealth Gap Will You Be On?

AI is about to split America into two over the next 12 months…
On one side, it’ll make America’s one-percenters richer and more powerful than ever…
But on the other side, it’s set to trap millions of hardworking Americans in financial quicksand…

One ex-hedge fund manager whose team predicted NVIDIA’s rise in 2020 calls this the “AI End Game”…

And he says there are three critical moves every American should make in the next 12 months to protect and grow their wealth through this paradigm shift…

CLICK HERE TO SEE THE DETAILS BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE

1 Union Pacific UNP ( ▼ 0.9% )  

Founded in 1862. Survived depressions, wars, recessions, pandemics.

Expected earnings growth:
→ ~6.9% in 2026
→ ~7.5% in 2027

Shares:
→ +15% YTD
→ Near 5-year highs

Valuation:
→ Forward P/E ~21
→ Dividend yield ~2.1%

This isn’t hypergrowth. It’s cash flow with durability.

AI may improve logistics efficiency. But It won’t replace 32,000 miles of rail.

2 C.H. Robinson Worldwide CHRW ( ▼ 0.81% )  

Freight and trucking intermediary.

After a tough freight cycle, earnings are expected to jump:

→ ~15.9% in 2026
→ ~15.9% in 2027

Shares:
→ +76% over the past year
→ Near 5-year highs

Valuation:
→ Forward P/E ~30
→ Dividend yield ~1.4%

This is cyclical recovery + asset backbone.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by BanyanHill*

Your Bank Could Change Forever on March 19th
If you have money in a checking or savings account…this could affect you directly.
 
Treasury warns it could drain $6.6 trillion from traditional banks.
 
Meanwhile, investors who make the right moves before the wealth transfer begins could make up to 40X by 2032…
 
Go here for the story — before Febrauary 17 hits.

3 Nutrien NTR ( ▼ 0.32% )  

One of the world’s largest fertilizer producers.

Earnings estimates have been revised higher.:
→ +5.3% expected growth in 2026
→ Recent upward estimate revisions

Shares:
→ +39% over the past year
→ 3-year highs

Valuation:
→ Forward P/E ~15
→ Dividend yield ~3%

AI can model crop yields. But nitrogen, potash, and phosphate still come from mines.

4 Lear Corporation LEA ( ▼ 0.38% )  

Automotive seating and electrical systems supplier.

After two tough years, earnings are expected to rebound:

Earnings:
→ +11.2% in 2026
→ +17.8% in 2027

Shares:
→ +38% over the past year
→ +13% YTD

Valuation:
→ Forward P/E ~9
→ Dividend yield ~2.3%

This is deep value territory.

Even in autonomous vehicles, someone still builds the interior.

5 Exxon Mobil XOM ( ▼ 0.13% )

One of the largest integrated energy producers globally.

Shares are at all-time highs — even though earnings are projected to:
→ Declines projected through 2026
→ Rebound forecast in 2027 (~+21.8%)

Shares:
→ +21.7% YTD
→ At new all-time highs

Valuation:
→ Forward P/E ~22
→ PEG ~15.6
→ Dividend yield ~2.7%

Energy is cash return + asset control. And … AI infrastructure doesn’t run without power.

SPONSOR BREAK  presented by TheOxfordClub*

New Weekly AI Cash Waves

There is no question, AI is a game-changer. $4.8 trillion is expected in new money is expected to be added to the global economy within the decade…

And thousands of Americans are claiming their share of this generational wealth-building opportunity by spending ONE hour per week using the power of AI to target what some are calling “Weekly AI Cash Waves”.

One Georgia millionaire recorded a short video showing how he’s been cashing in using the power of AI.

In it you’ll learn how:

• This technique is based on research done by Harvard, the Federal Reserve and many other prestigious institutions

• Has provided multiple money-doubling returns within as little as a few hours.

• Why you don’t need to be a pro to take advantage of the power of AI

Click here to watch this free video and learn how to target these Weekly AI Cash Waves.

These aren’t hyper-growth names.

They’re cash-flow businesses with tangible assets and dividend support.

And many are breaking to multi-year or all-time highs.

That suggests something subtle:

While the market waits for AI to prove broad earnings leverage, capital is diversifying into durability.

Not abandoning innovation but balancing it.

And then Nvidia reported.

→ Revenue: $68.1B vs $65.8B expected.
→ EPS: $1.62 vs $1.53 expected.
→ Data center: $62.3B vs $60.2B expected.

→ Q1 outlook: $76.4–79.5B, well above the $72.8B estimate.

That’s expansion.

– Compute revenue rose 58% year-over-year.
– Networking surged 263%.

Hyperscalers still represent just over 50% of data center revenue — but growth diversified beyond them.

Even with this beat, one fact remains:

70% of companies talk about AI. Only 1% quantify earnings impact.

Nvidia is monetizing the buildout. The broader market is still proving it.

That’s why durability trades exist.

Not as a rejection of AI.

But as a hedge against narrative concentration.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe to the TradingLessons and get our daily market breakdown delivered straight to your inbox.

❗ P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Below is an important message from one of our sponsors.

For 30 years, there was a simple rule on Wall Street:

Regular Americans stay out.

The ultra-wealthy had access to investments that could turn modest stakes into fortunes. You didn’t.

That was the deal. And nobody was going to change it.

Then Trump flipped the script.

He just signed an executive order that opened these investments to everyone.

And now his own financial disclosures reveal where he’s putting his money:

Up to $25M in a single fund — one that pays him as much as $250,000 a month.

My colleague Alexander Green says the timing couldn’t be better.

He believes we’re at the start of something historic.

Click here to see his full presentation:

Good investing,

Rachel Gearhart
Publisher,The Oxford Club

_{This ad is sent on behalf of The Oxford Club, 105 W. Monument Street Baltimore, MD 21201. If you would like to opt out from receiving offers from The Oxford Club, please click here.}

 _{P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!}