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Up 2.5%… And They Still Sold.

One of the best days…

You know that feeling when you’ve been waiting months for something. You prep. You plan. You tell yourself “when the moment comes, I’ll be ready.”

Then the moment comes. And you do the exact opposite of what you planned.

That’s retail investors today.

The stock market just had its best 6-day streak of 2026.

Airlines up 11%.
Chips up 12%.
Bitcoin back above $71k.

The kind of day that makes you feel like a genius for owning anything.

And retail investors celebrated by selling everything.

I am not joking.

Here’s the story 


SPONSOR BREAK presented by Stansberry* 

Guess which tech stock is about to crash next?
No one believed Whitney Tilson when he predicted the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Or when he went on 60 Minutes exposing a company of poisoning its own customers. (The stock fell nearly 80%.) Now he has a new warning about what’s REALLY around the corner for America’s most beloved tech companies.
Watch for free here.


The Phone Call That Moved Everything

President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran Tuesday night.
The deal: Iran lets ships through the Strait of Hormuz. US halts attacks.

Oil crashed 15%. And everything that hates expensive oil went absolutely berserk.

JetBlue JBLU ( ▲ 10.77% ) +11%
Carnival CCL ( ▲ 11.23% ) +11.2%
United Airlines UAL ( ▲ 7.85% ) +7.8%
Southwest LUV ( ▲ 6.68% ) +6.7%
American Airlines AAL ( ▲ 5.55% ) +5.7%

Memory and optics joined the party too.
Applied Optoelectronics AAOI ( ▲ 12.8% )
Corning GLW ( ▲ 11.16% )
Coherent COHR ( ▲ 10.46% )
Lumentum LITE ( ▲ 9.84% )

Bitcoin crossed back above › $71,000 ▲.
Meta released its first Superintelligence Labs model › +6.5% ▲.
Alibaba announced a 10,000-chip data center › +4.7% ▲.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell all climbed over +2.5% ▲. Six green days in a row. The longest winning streak of 2026.

Magnificent 7 all up. Except Tesla. Tesla was doing Tesla things. (-0.98%)

It was, genuinely, a spectacular day to own anything.

Unless you were retail.



Small problem with the ceasefire.

Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hopped on social media less than 24 hours later and said the US had already violated three parts of the deal.

His list: Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon A drone entering Iranian airspace Denial of Iran’s right to enrich uranium

“In such situation, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable,” he said.

Ship traffic through the strait hasn’t budged beyond the slow trickle seen during the war.

Oil was already down 15% near $95 a barrel by the time Ghalibaf posted his statement.

The market read all of this and went up anyway.


The Massacre In The Energy Aisle

While everyone else was celebrating, energy stocks got taken out back.

APA Corporation APA ( ▼ 9.8% )
Venture Global VG ( ▼ 9.69% )
LyondellBasell LYB ( ▼ 7.53% )
Marathon Petroleum MPC ( ▼ 5.48% )
ConocoPhillips COP ( ▼ 4.97% )
Occidental Petroleum OXY ( ▼ 5.04% )
Exxon XOM ( ▼ 4.69% )
Chevron CVX ( ▼ 4.29% )

One ceasefire announcement. Billions in energy market cap, gone before lunch. That’s geopolitics doing what geopolitics does.


SPONSOR BREAK presented by TheOxfordClub* 

Wall Street is calling it “Project Apex”

That’s the internal codename for the SpaceX IPO…

And right now… 21 of the largest banks are fighting over the $1.75 Trillion public listing. JPMorgan, Goldman, Morgan Stanley. The list is long.

The “winner” stands to make Billions in profits…

But I’ve found a way to help Main Street Americans get positioned before the SpaceX IPO.

Click here to claim your SpaceX “Access Code”

 


Retail’s Villain Origin Story

And now. The part that’ll make you want to lie down.

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain was tracking retail trading activity through 11:30am ET today.

His finding: retail investors were selling into the rally.
ETFs.
Single stocks.
Broad market exposure. All of it.

He called it “a major departure from their typical pattern.”

The only things retail held onto were the Magnificent 7.
Nvidia.
Tesla.
Meta.
Microsoft.
The comfort blanket of familiar names.

The stocks they dumped hardest?
Micron
TSMC
Exxon
Chevron

Micron was up 7.7% today. TSMC was up 5.9% .

Last week, Jain had noted retail was “skipping the dips, selling into rallies, and positioning more defensively.”

Nothing changed. The market gave them a six-day winning streak — the longest of 2026. They gave it back.


The Distrust Green Days

Retail sold a 2.5% rally today because the last few weeks trained their brains to distrust green days.

That’s not stupidity. That’s just how brains work.

The Strait of Hormuz is still disputed. The ceasefire is already cracking. Oil is down 15%.

And the S&P 500 just had its best six-day run of 2026.

It’s easy to laugh at retail selling a 2.5% rally. It’s harder to remember they’ve been through weeks of red. It’s just caution.

In short… today was a psychology story.

!!! Not financial advice. The stocks mentioned are for educational purposes only. Do your own research before making investment decisions, please check the disclaimer below.


Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇


Lesson Of The Day:


Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.


💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

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Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Up 2.5%… And They Still Sold.

One of the best days…

You know that feeling when you’ve been waiting months for something. You prep. You plan. You tell yourself “when the moment comes, I’ll be ready.”

Then the moment comes. And you do the exact opposite of what you planned.

That’s retail investors today.

The stock market just had its best 6-day streak of 2026.

Airlines up 11%.
Chips up 12%.
Bitcoin back above $71k.

The kind of day that makes you feel like a genius for owning anything.

And retail investors celebrated by selling everything.

I am not joking.

Here’s the story 


SPONSOR BREAK presented by Stansberry* 

Guess which tech stock is about to crash next?
No one believed Whitney Tilson when he predicted the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Or when he went on 60 Minutes exposing a company of poisoning its own customers. (The stock fell nearly 80%.) Now he has a new warning about what’s REALLY around the corner for America’s most beloved tech companies.
Watch for free here.


The Phone Call That Moved Everything

President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran Tuesday night.
The deal: Iran lets ships through the Strait of Hormuz. US halts attacks.

Oil crashed 15%. And everything that hates expensive oil went absolutely berserk.

JetBlue JBLU ( ▲ 10.77% ) +11%
Carnival CCL ( ▲ 11.23% ) +11.2%
United Airlines UAL ( ▲ 7.85% ) +7.8%
Southwest LUV ( ▲ 6.68% ) +6.7%
American Airlines AAL ( ▲ 5.55% ) +5.7%

Memory and optics joined the party too.
Applied Optoelectronics AAOI ( ▲ 12.8% )
Corning GLW ( ▲ 11.16% )
Coherent COHR ( ▲ 10.46% )
Lumentum LITE ( ▲ 9.84% )

Bitcoin crossed back above › $71,000 ▲.
Meta released its first Superintelligence Labs model › +6.5% ▲.
Alibaba announced a 10,000-chip data center › +4.7% ▲.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell all climbed over +2.5% ▲. Six green days in a row. The longest winning streak of 2026.

Magnificent 7 all up. Except Tesla. Tesla was doing Tesla things. (-0.98%)

It was, genuinely, a spectacular day to own anything.

Unless you were retail.



Small problem with the ceasefire.

Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hopped on social media less than 24 hours later and said the US had already violated three parts of the deal.

His list: Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon A drone entering Iranian airspace Denial of Iran’s right to enrich uranium

“In such situation, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable,” he said.

Ship traffic through the strait hasn’t budged beyond the slow trickle seen during the war.

Oil was already down 15% near $95 a barrel by the time Ghalibaf posted his statement.

The market read all of this and went up anyway.


The Massacre In The Energy Aisle

While everyone else was celebrating, energy stocks got taken out back.

APA Corporation APA ( ▼ 9.8% )
Venture Global VG ( ▼ 9.69% )
LyondellBasell LYB ( ▼ 7.53% )
Marathon Petroleum MPC ( ▼ 5.48% )
ConocoPhillips COP ( ▼ 4.97% )
Occidental Petroleum OXY ( ▼ 5.04% )
Exxon XOM ( ▼ 4.69% )
Chevron CVX ( ▼ 4.29% )

One ceasefire announcement. Billions in energy market cap, gone before lunch. That’s geopolitics doing what geopolitics does.


SPONSOR BREAK presented by TheOxfordClub* 

Wall Street is calling it “Project Apex”

That’s the internal codename for the SpaceX IPO…

And right now… 21 of the largest banks are fighting over the $1.75 Trillion public listing. JPMorgan, Goldman, Morgan Stanley. The list is long.

The “winner” stands to make Billions in profits…

But I’ve found a way to help Main Street Americans get positioned before the SpaceX IPO.

Click here to claim your SpaceX “Access Code”

 


Retail’s Villain Origin Story

And now. The part that’ll make you want to lie down.

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain was tracking retail trading activity through 11:30am ET today.

His finding: retail investors were selling into the rally.
ETFs.
Single stocks.
Broad market exposure. All of it.

He called it “a major departure from their typical pattern.”

The only things retail held onto were the Magnificent 7.
Nvidia.
Tesla.
Meta.
Microsoft.
The comfort blanket of familiar names.

The stocks they dumped hardest?
Micron
TSMC
Exxon
Chevron

Micron was up 7.7% today. TSMC was up 5.9% .

Last week, Jain had noted retail was “skipping the dips, selling into rallies, and positioning more defensively.”

Nothing changed. The market gave them a six-day winning streak — the longest of 2026. They gave it back.


The Distrust Green Days

Retail sold a 2.5% rally today because the last few weeks trained their brains to distrust green days.

That’s not stupidity. That’s just how brains work.

The Strait of Hormuz is still disputed. The ceasefire is already cracking. Oil is down 15%.

And the S&P 500 just had its best six-day run of 2026.

It’s easy to laugh at retail selling a 2.5% rally. It’s harder to remember they’ve been through weeks of red. It’s just caution.

In short… today was a psychology story.

!!! Not financial advice. The stocks mentioned are for educational purposes only. Do your own research before making investment decisions, please check the disclaimer below.


Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇


Lesson Of The Day:


Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.


💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

They Walked Out With $13 Billion.

The first offer is never the real offer…

Every car salesman alive knows this rule: never accept the first number.

The first number is not an offer. It is a feeling-out. A test to see how badly you want the deal.

The real negotiation starts after someone says NO — and whoever holds their nerve longest usually wins.

Here’s the story 


SPONSOR BREAK presented by BrownstoneResearch* 

They Consulted Him to Help End “The Pelosi Paradox”

How is Nancy Pelosi worth $413 million on a $174,000 salary?

For decades, the revolving door between Washington and Wall Street kept regular folks like you locked out.

Thanks to a brand-new law…

(One Jeff Brown was consulted by Congressional offices on…)

The “Pelosi Paradox” is coming to a swift end.

And it’s lighting a fuse under an over $2 quadrillion corner of the tech market.

Click here to discover how you could profit from this landmark moment.

In what’s set to be the biggest wealth transfer in America in 53 years.


The Masterclass.

There is a pattern in the relationship between the US government and the health insurance industry, and if you have never watched it closely, today was a masterclass in how it works.

1 The government floats a number.
2 The industry reacts with varying degrees of visible panic.
3 Lobbyists get on planes. Analysts write notes with phrases like “disappointing but not surprising.”
4 And then, a few months later, Washington says “Fine“ and “friendlier” numbers come out.

Today was the “friendlier number” part. 

The story:
Back in January, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed a 0.09% payment increase for Medicare Advantage plans in 2027.

To put that in plain terms: the industry was expecting roughly 3%, and Washington slid a 0.09% across the table and waited to see what happened.

(What happened was: insurer stocks fell, analysts revised their models downward, and the lobbying industry had its best January in years.)

The finalized rate, released yesterday: 2.48%.

Roughly $13 billion in additional payments to private insurers next year.
Wall Street had penciled in 1% to 1.5% at best.


SPONSOR BREAK presented by BehindTheMarket* 

Mark this date: May 29th, 2026.

While the media is distracted by the latest headlines out of Iran, a 90-year-old federal law is quietly closing a trap on Wall Street’s biggest bullion banks.

For 55 years, they’ve sold “paper gold” they didn’t actually have.

But on May 29th, the legal “First Notice” deadline hits.

It’s the moment of truth where paper promises must turn into physical bars—bars that the London and Shanghai vaults simply do not have.

When the “Paper Leash” snaps, gold won’t just move… it will teleport.

I’ve identified one “Shadow Miner” sitting on a “King’s Vault” of physical metal that could surge 1,000% as the paper market defaults.

See the 90-year-old law and the ticker symbol here >>>

“The Buck Stops Here,”

Dylan Jovine, CEO & Founder
Behind the Markets

P.S. This isn’t just an exchange rule—it’s federal law. 7 U.S.C. § 13(a)(2) carries a penalty of up to 10 years in prison for price manipulation. On May 29th, the bankers have to choose: deliver the physical gold they promised, or admit the vaults are empty.Click here to see the “Shadow Miner” ticker that wins either way. >>
 


So who exactly is making $13 billion here?

Glad you asked… 😀 

Quick backstory. Most people know Medicare as the government health insurance program for Americans over 65.

What most people don’t know is that a huge chunk of Medicare is actually outsourced to private companies. It’s called Medicare Advantage, and it works like this:

the government picks a payment rate per enrollee,
hands it to companies like UnitedHealth, Humana, and CVS’s insurance arm Aetna, and says “you run it, you keep whatever’s left over.”

That payment rate? 
It’s basically the entire business model wrapped into a single number.
!!! When it goes up, margins expand, stocks climb, and insurance executives have very good Tuesdays.
!!! When it comes in low — like the 0.09% proposed back in January — the opposite happens.

(0.09%. To put that in perspective: if you asked for a 3% raise and your boss handed you a Post-it note that said “thinking about it,” that’s roughly the energy.)

Yesterday’s finalized rate of 2.48% didn’t just reverse the January damage. It nearly doubled what Wall Street was expecting.

And this morning, the entire sector remembered how to go up.

  UNH ( ▲ 9.31% )  
HUM ( ▲ 8.13% )  
CVS ( ▲ 6.47% )  
ELV ( ▲ 2.82% )  
CNC ( ▲ 2.36% )  
OSCR ( ▲ 1.53% )  


SPONSOR BREAK presented by Paradigm* 

$2 Gold Stock With Major Discovery

A tiny $2 stock…
Quietly controls the largest gold deposit in the entire world…

Worth almost $1 TRILLION in total…

And I believe on April 15, they’re preparing to announce this historic discovery to the world.

Once that happens, the sky is the limit for early investors who get in now.
Click here to see everything you need to know.


They meant 5%…

2.48% is the number they announced.
5% is the number that actually moved the stocks.

Here’s what didn’t make the headline:
On top of the 2.48% rate increase, CMS also confirmed insurers would receive an additional 2.5% benefit from risk-score adjustments — extra payments based on how sick their enrolled population is.

Add it up. 2.48 + 2.5. The calculator is not broken.

(A raise and a quietly stapled bonus to the back of it.)

The real effective increase for 2027 is closer to 5%.
Which means the stocks didn’t overreact today.
They reacted to the actual number + the headline.


SPONSOR BREAK presented by TheOxfordClub* 

Wall Street is calling it “Project Apex”

That’s the internal codename for the SpaceX IPO…

And right now… 21 of the largest banks are fighting over the $1.75 Trillion public listing. JPMorgan, Goldman, Morgan Stanley. The list is long.

The “winner” stands to make Billions in profits…

But I’ve found a way to help Main Street Americans get positioned before the SpaceX IPO.

Click here to claim your SpaceX “Access Code”

 


Funny how that works.

Legislation establishing Medicare was signed July 30, 1965.
source: britannica

This is not a secret. It is a pattern that has repeated itself in this industry for years, and one that set up today’s move with remarkable clarity.

The gap this year was unusually wide — 0.09% proposed, 2.48% finalized — which is part of why the market reaction was so sharp.

But the mechanics behind it are the same ones that play out every cycle.

1 Conservative opening.
2 Industry pushback.
3 Final number lands higher. Repeat.

!!! Not financial advice. The stocks mentioned are for educational purposes only. Do your own research before making investment decisions, please check the disclaimer below.


Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇


Lesson Of The Day:


Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.


💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

We Owe Gen Z An Apology.

April 15 Is Coming…

source: giphy

Tax season is almost over. April 15 is nine days away.

And right now, two things are happening at the same time …

First: Americans are getting bigger refunds than last year — up 10.2% ▲, averaging $3,804 — and quietly pouring that money into retirement accounts at record rates.

IRA contributions are up 30% compared to this time last year.

And the generation leading the charge? Gen Z. The same generation accused of spending their savings on iced coffee and “situationships” is now outcontributing Gen X and Boomers on retirement savings.

(Take a moment. Let that sink in.)

Second: Gold — the asset that’s supposed to go vertical during a Middle East war, an oil shock, and the worst inflation scare since 2022 — is actually down 12% ▼ since the conflict started.

A war broke out. Inflation is running hot. And the “safe haven” asset is having its worst month since 2008.

Both of these things are true at the same time. Both are genuinely surprising. And they’re connected in a way that’s worth understanding before April 15 comes and goes.

Here’s the story 


SPONSOR BREAK presented by AmericanAlternativeAssets* 

Here’s what’s sitting on the books right now: the U.S. holds 8,133 metric tons of gold valued at $42.22 per ounce — a price set in 1973. At today’s market price, that’s a $1.59 trillion gap between the government’s ledger and reality.

Think about that. Every retirement account in America is priced against a dollar that pretends gold is worth $42. When that fiction breaks, the adjustment won’t be gradual.

Show me how to position my retirement before this triggers →


$3,800. And Gen Z is putting it to work.

According to the IRS, the average tax refund this year is $3,804 — a 10.2% jump from the same point last year.

Over $109 billion has already been refunded.

The reason: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in July 2025, introduced a wave of new deductions — tips, overtime, car loan interest, bigger standard deductions for seniors, a higher child tax credit cap.

And a lot of people have more money coming back than they expected.

Here’s the interesting part: a significant chunk of it is going straight into retirement accounts.

According to Fidelity, IRA contributions are up 30% since January compared to the same period last year. That’s a striking number. But the really surprising part is who’s driving it.

Gen Z accounts for 34% of total IRA contributions at Fidelity so far this year. Boomers? Just 4%.

Read that again. The generation that supposedly doesn’t think about the future is currently out-contributing the retirement generation on retirement accounts. By a lot.

One quick reminder: April 15 is the deadline for a 2025 IRA contribution.
That’s $7,000 if you’re under 50, $8,000 if you’re not. Nine days, lower tax bill.


SPONSOR BREAK presented by BehindTheMarket* 

Mark this date: May 29th, 2026.

While the media is distracted by the latest headlines out of Iran, a 90-year-old federal law is quietly closing a trap on Wall Street’s biggest bullion banks.

For 55 years, they’ve sold “paper gold” they didn’t actually have.

But on May 29th, the legal “First Notice” deadline hits.

It’s the moment of truth where paper promises must turn into physical bars—bars that the London and Shanghai vaults simply do not have.

When the “Paper Leash” snaps, gold won’t just move… it will teleport.

I’ve identified one “Shadow Miner” sitting on a “King’s Vault” of physical metal that could surge 1,000% as the paper market defaults.

See the 90-year-old law and the ticker symbol here >>>

“The Buck Stops Here,”

Dylan Jovine, CEO & Founder
Behind the Markets

P.S. This isn’t just an exchange rule—it’s federal law. 7 U.S.C. § 13(a)(2) carries a penalty of up to 10 years in prison for price manipulation. On May 29th, the bankers have to choose: deliver the physical gold they promised, or admit the vaults are empty.Click here to see the “Shadow Miner” ticker that wins either way. >>
 


The Check-the-Box Problem

You contribute. You feel good. You close the app.

And the money sits there. In cash. In a money market fund. Doing approximately nothing.

Vanguard did the research on this and found that a significant chunk of IRA contributions stay parked in cash long after the contribution is made — sometimes for months.

People separate the “contributing” decision from the “investing” decision.

It’s like packing your gym bag, driving to the gym, sitting in the parking lot, and then driving home.

Meanwhile, something bigger is developing.


Tomorrow Night.

President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires tomorrow at 8 p.m. ET.

Iran’s response? They want a permanent end to the war, sanctions lifted, and reconstruction funding. Not exactly a quick handshake deal.

So what’s the market doing with all of this?

Gold sitting at $4,655 an ounce — down 12% ▼ since the war began in late February

 CPI data drops this week, with economists forecasting a 1% jump for March — the biggest one-month move since 2022

Wells Fargo just scrapped its forecast for two Fed cuts in 2026. Now they expect zero. 


SPONSOR BREAK presented by Paradigm* 

$2 Gold Stock With Major Discovery

A tiny $2 stock…
Quietly controls the largest gold deposit in the entire world…

Worth almost $1 TRILLION in total…

And I believe on April 15, they’re preparing to announce this historic discovery to the world.

Once that happens, the sky is the limit for early investors who get in now.
Click here to see everything you need to know.


Why Is Gold Down If There’s a War?

Fair question. Shouldn’t war = gold goes up?

Usually, yes. But this war came with a twist.

source: Bloomberg

The Strait of Hormuz closure spiked oil prices. Spiked oil prices stoked inflation fears. Inflation fears pushed the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. And higher rates make gold less attractive — it pays no interest, so when your money market fund is yielding 4%+, why hold a shiny rock?

On top of that, when markets panic, investors sell everything — including gold — to cover losses elsewhere.

The result: gold is down 12% from where it started when the war began. Down more than 10% in March alone — its worst month since 2008.

Normally inflation is good for gold. But this inflation is being driven by an oil shock and not a structural debasement of the dollar.

Markets are treating it as something that ends when the Strait reopens, not something that requires a permanent inflation hedge.

!!! CPI data drops this Friday. Economists are forecasting a 1% monthly increase — the sharpest single-month jump since 2022.
The war has added over $1 per gallon to gas prices. That number is going to get attention.

If it comes in hotter than expected, gold could move.


SPONSOR BREAK presented by StansberryResearch* 

Elon Musk Just Did Something He’s Never Done Before
This February, Elon spent millions to send a message to 125 million Americans. Most people ignored it. But Wall Street veteran Whitney Tilson couldn’t stop thinking about it, and says what Elon was really saying explains everything about what’s unfolding in America’s economy right now.
He’s sharing his full analysis, free, here.

 


Watch Friday.

Two of the smartest banks on Wall Street looked at gold and gave wildly different answers.

Goldman Sachs still has a year-end target of $5,400 on gold.
JPMorgan sees a range of $4,000–$6,300.

That $2,300 range is just Wall Street’s polite way of saying “we have absolutely no idea.” Watch Friday.

!!! Not financial advice. The stocks mentioned are for educational purposes only. Do your own research before making investment decisions, please check the disclaimer below.


Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇


Lesson Of The Day:


Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.


💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Ouch. (And Also, Wow.)

Q1 2026 is officially in the books.

And it was not pretty.

The S&P 500 fell 4.6% in the first three months of the year — the worst quarter since Q3 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent markets into a tailspin.

This after three straight years of double-digit returns. The kind of reversal that makes you question everything you thought you knew.

But this wasn’t a clean sell-off.

Only about half of the S&P 500 was actually down in Q1. 264 stocks fell.
The rest? Fine. Some of them were absolutely flying.

So this was a market that rotated — violently, aggressively, and with very clear opinions about who wins next.

Here’s the story 


SPONSOR BREAK presented by StansberryResearch* 

Elon Musk Just Did Something He’s Never Done Before
This February, Elon spent millions to send a message to 125 million Americans. Most people ignored it. But Wall Street veteran Whitney Tilson couldn’t stop thinking about it, and says what Elon was really saying explains everything about what’s unfolding in America’s economy right now.
He’s sharing his full analysis, free, here.
 


The SaaSpocalypse is real

The biggest drag on the index wasn’t some random small cap nobody’s heard of.

It was Nvidia. Microsoft. Apple. Alphabet. The names on everyone’s watchlist, the stocks that carried markets for three straight years — they just became the reason Q1 was rough.

But the real story is software.

SaaS companies — the ones that dominated 2025 — got absolutely demolished. The market has a new fear and it has a name: agentic AI.

The thesis is simple and brutal: If AI agents can do the work that enterprise software automates, why do you need the software? 

Investors didn’t wait around for an answer. They just sold.

AppLovin — up 108% in 2025 — became the single worst performer in the entire index for Q1 2026.

Short seller reports, a federal investigation, and the software collapse hit it from every angle simultaneously.

One year you’re the belle of the ball. Next quarter you’re the cautionary tale.

SaaS companies made up more than half of the bottom 20 performers in Q1. And that is a very clear message.


SPONSOR BREAK presented by Paradigm* 

$2 Gold Stock With Major Discovery

A tiny $2 stock…
Quietly controls the largest gold deposit in the entire world…

Worth almost $1 TRILLION in total…

And I believe on April 15, they’re preparing to announce this historic discovery to the world.

Once that happens, the sky is the limit for early investors who get in now.
Click here to see everything you need to know.


The Winners

While everyone was watching the Mag7 stumble, something quietly extraordinary was happening in a corner of the market most people can’t name at a dinner party.

Memory chips.
Optical components.

The physical infrastructure that actually moves AI data around inside data centers.

Sandisk — spun off from Western Digital last year — gained 168% in Q1.

That’s not a typo.
One hundred and sixty eight percent. In three months.

Making it the top performer in the entire S&P 500 for the second quarter in a row — something that according to Bloomberg has never happened before in the index’s history.

The fuel? Hyperscalers — Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta — are spending aggressively on data center buildout.

All that AI compute needs somewhere to live.

Flash storage,
fiber optics,
the cables and
cooling systems that hold it all together.

Nvidia even invested $2 billion each into Coherent and Lumentum, with purchase commitments attached.

The market isn’t scared of AI. It’s repricing who actually wins from AI.
And right now, the answer looks a lot more like the infrastructure underneath it.

Energy was the other big winner.
Fifteen of the top 30 performers in Q1 were energy and chemical stocks, as oil surged well above $100 a barrel.

APA up 74%.
Occidental up 58%.
Valero up 52%.

The second best quarter for energy relative to the S&P 500 since 1999.

And then there’s Tesla.


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He’s sharing his full analysis, free, here.

 


358,023. The number that broke the story.

And then there’s Tesla.

This morning, Tesla reported Q1 deliveries: 358,023 vehicles.

Analysts expected 380,500. Tesla’s own consensus estimate was 365,645.
It missed both. By a lot.

It gets worse. Tesla produced about 408,000 vehicles in the quarter, meaning it made 50,400 more cars than it sold. The largest production-to-delivery gap in the company’s history. By a significant margin.

Shares were down more than 4% before the market opened.

(Not exactly the morning Elon was hoping for.)

Here’s the complicated part though.

Tesla is no longer just a car company in the market’s eyes.
It’s the other half of Terafab.
It’s the company whose full self-driving chips are being co-developed with SpaceX.
It’s the stock retail investors treat like a vote on whether Elon Musk wins the future.

So you’ve got a company that missed delivery estimates by 6%, is sitting on its biggest inventory overhang ever, and is simultaneously being positioned as a cornerstone of the most anticipated IPO in history.

Two completely different stories. Same ticker.

The question the market is chewing on today: does the SpaceX narrative bail out the Tesla fundamentals? Or do the fundamentals eventually catch up with the story?

History says the fundamentals always win.


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I Called Black Monday. Now I’m Calling April 20!

I predicted the 1987 crash six weeks early. I called the fall of the Berlin Wall. I pinpointed the exact bottom in 2009.

Now I’m staking my reputation on April 20, 2026 – the day I believe Elon will announce the SpaceX IPO.

Bloomberg is calling it “the biggest listing of ALL TIME.”

A $1.5 TRILLION valuation… the “wealth-building” moment of the decade.

Today, I’ll show you how to get in before the big announcement.

Click Here to See How to Secure Your “SpaceX Access Code”


“Take your marks”…

credit: businessinsider

Q1 was… a market that was making up its mind.

Software out.
Infrastructure in.
Energy back.
Tesla: complicated 😃 

Q2 starts today. The scoreboard just reset.

!!! Not financial advice. The stocks mentioned are for educational purposes only. Do your own research before making investment decisions, please check the disclaimer below.


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To The Moon. Literally.

Live today · Launch window opens 6:24 PM ED

Credit: SpaceX

There’s a 32-story rocket sitting on Pad 39B at Kennedy Space Center right now.

In a few hours, it lights up. Four astronauts go somewhere no human has been since 1972.

And this morning — same day, same calendar square — the company that built the rocket quietly filed paperwork with the SEC to raise $75 billion.

I want you to picture the SpaceX PR team this morning.

Someone walked into that office, put their coffee down, and said:
“Okay so… Artemis launches tonight AND we filed for the IPO today. Should we maybe… space these out?”

Reader, they did not space these out.

And honestly? Respect.

Because today is the kind of day that comes along maybe once a decade.

This is either the greatest marketing timing in corporate history, or a cosmic coincidence…

Here’s the story 


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The numbers are genuinely absurd

Let’s do the SpaceX IPO math real quick because the numbers deserve a moment.

$75 billion raise. $1.75 trillion valuation. Both records. By a lot. (according to Bloomberg)

The company Elon started in a warehouse in 2002 — after three rockets exploded — is now worth more than Toyota, Walmart, and Mastercard.

The part that’s actually interesting for regular investors: 
SpaceX is reportedly allocating up to 30% of the offering to retail. The typical IPO gives retail about 10%. So they’re tripling the individual investor slice — which either means Musk genuinely wants Main Street along for the ride, or demand from institutions isn’t quite as rabid as the headlines suggest.

(Probably the first one. But worth noting.)


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The Fine Print Nobody Reads (But Should)

SpaceX is considering a dual-class share structure for the IPO.
Here’s what that actually means in plain English.

Most companies have one type of share.
One share = one vote. Simple.

Dual-class means there are two tiers.
 Class A shares go to the public — that’s you.
 Class B shares stay with insiders — that’s Musk.

The catch? Class B shares carry way more voting power. Sometimes 10x more.
So you could own 1,000 shares of SpaceX and Musk could own 100 — and he’d still outvote you. By a lot.

This isn’t unusual.
Meta does it.
Alphabet does it.
Snap does it.

Mark Zuckerberg owns 99.7% of Meta’s Class B shares, which represents about 13% of the stock but over 53% of the voting power. That’s the same idea.

What it means practically: Musk can ignore shareholders. He can make decisions they disagree with — new missions, new ventures, pivots, personnel — and there is nothing they can do about it except sell.

We’ve seen this movie before with Tesla. Retail investors love the stock. They also have essentially zero say in how the company is run.


Elon’s Secret Cash Machine

Everyone thinks SpaceX is a rocket company.

It’s not. Not really.

It’s an internet company that happens to own the most impressive delivery system ever built.

Starlink launched in 2019. The idea was simple but insane: instead of running cables under oceans and through mountains, what if you just… put the internet in space?

SpaceX has launched over 7,000 satellites into low Earth orbit. They’re roughly 340 miles up — close enough to deliver internet speeds that can actually compete with your home broadband.

To anywhere on the planet.
A fishing boat in the middle of the Pacific.
A farm in rural Montana… also,
in Ukraine.

Starlink became critical military and civilian infrastructure almost overnight. Governments started paying for it. Then corporations. Then consumers.

And here’s the beautiful part — it’s a subscription business.
Like Netflix. Like Spotify.

That recurring revenue is now reportedly the majority of SpaceX’s profits.

! Not the rocket launches. Not the NASA contracts. Not the Falcon 9 flights that made Elon famous.

Starlink. 7,000+ satellites already in orbit and zero serious competition at scale.

The rockets are the show. Starlink is the business.


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Wait, They’re Building What?

credit: SpaceX

SpaceX and Tesla just announced a joint venture called Terafab.

The idea: build every stage of semiconductor production under one roof.
 No outsourcing. No supply chain drama. Just chips, made in-house, in Austin, Texas.

Two types of chips specifically.

1 The first is an edge-inference processor — the brain inside Tesla’s full self-driving system, Optimus robots, and the Robotaxi fleet. Every time a Tesla decides not to hit a traffic cone, that chip is doing the thinking.

2 The second is more interesting. A space-hardened variant. Built to survive radiation, extreme temperatures, and the general hostility of being 340 miles above Earth. These go into SpaceX satellites, orbital infrastructure, and xAI projects.

Why does this matter? Because right now, SpaceX buys chips from the same suppliers everyone else fights over. Terafab changes that.

Vertical integration means lower costs, faster iteration, and zero dependency on Taiwan if things get geopolitically complicated.


The Part That Sounds Like Sci-Fi (But isn’t)

credit: SpaceX

Then there’s the orbital data centers.

Musk’s argument is straightforward: land is expensive, cooling is expensive, energy is expensive.

In space, you have unlimited solar power and the vacuum of space for cooling.

So why not put the servers up there?

Wall Street called this science fiction six months ago.

They’re not calling it that anymore.

The SpaceX IPO money funds all of this. So when you look at that $75 billion raise — that’s not just rockets. That’s chips, satellites, and a bet that the next generation of AI compute runs from orbit.

Whether it works is a different question.

But the market is about to price it in either way.


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$4. We Crossed It.

35%  jump or $1.04 more per gallon…

You know that number you’ve been dreading every time you pull into a gas station?

We crossed it.

As of today, the national average for a gallon of regular gas hit $4.018.
The first time since August 2022.

That’s not a headline you read and forget. That’s a number you feel every single week when you’re standing at the pump, watching the dollars tick up, doing the mental math on whether you really need to go to that thing on Saturday.

And here’s the part that makes it sting a little more.

When the Iran war started in late February, gas was $2.98 a gallon (national average).

Today it’s $4.02.

That’s a 35%  jump or $1.04 more per gallon…

Diesel is even worse. Up 45% to $5.45. Which means trucks cost more to run. Which means shipping costs more. Which means groceries cost more. Which means everything costs more.

One closed strait. Lots of consequences.

Here’s the story 


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Quick geography reminder…

The Strait of Hormuz is a 21-mile chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Before the war, roughly one fifth of the world’s oil supply traveled through it every single day.

It’s been effectively closed for a month.

And crude oil is up more than 50%  since the war began.

Today brought a plot twist though.

The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the US military campaign against Iran — even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

Markets went wild on the headline.

 Oil swung.
 The dollar fell.
Treasury yields dropped.

And gold? Gold went absolutely vertical.


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Once that happens, the sky is the limit for early investors who get in now.

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This ad is sent on behalf of Paradigm Press, LLC, at 1001 Cathedral St., Baltimore, MD 21201. If you’re not interested in this opportunity from Paradigm Press, LLC, please click here to remove your email from these offers.


The $4,700 Metal

Gold jumped as much as 3.12% today, touching $4,699.50 an ounce.

That’s three straight sessions of gains. And it’s happening for a very specific reason.

When Trump signals peace talks, traders do two things simultaneously:

1 They sell oil (less war = more supply = lower prices) 
2 They buy gold (uncertainty is still high, dollar is weakening, rates might fall)

Gold doesn’t pay interest. So when rates are high, holding gold feels a little pointless your money could be sitting in a bond making 5%.

But the moment the threat of rate hikes fades? Gold starts looking a lot more attractive again.

That’s exactly what happened Monday. Powell said inflation expectations are still anchored. Traders who were betting on more rate hikes changed their minds.

And gold went up.

Despite this week’s surge, gold is still on track for its worst month since 2008.

Read that again.

Gold is up 3.12%  today and it’s still having its worst month in 17 years.

That tells you how brutal the first few weeks of the war were — forced selling, equity routs, margin calls. Everything got dumped. Including gold.

What’s happening now is the recovery. The rebound. The market slowly exhaling.

Silver had an even better day than gold — up 6.51%  to $75.16 an ounce. Palladium jumped 4.18% .

When the precious metals complex moves together like this, it’s not a coincidence. It’s the market sending a very clear message: we still don’t trust this situation.


Two scenarios. 

It is not a ceasefire yet. It is more like a negotiation with guns still drawn.

Which means today’s gold rally could evaporate tomorrow on a single bad headline. And today’s oil dip could reverse just as fast.

Same as last week. Pick your world.

World A: Peace deal happens. Strait reopens. Oil crashes back. Gas falls. Gold pulls back.Markets party like it’s February again.

World B: Talks stall. Strait stays closed. Oil grinds higher toward $100.
Gas approaches $5 nationally — Patrick De Haan from GasBuddy told CNBC that’s where we could be headed if the closure continues. Gold keeps climbing as the chaos hedge of choice.

History doesn’t give you a clean answer here.

But your gas receipts are already telling you which world we’re living in right now.


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Where You’re Feeling It Most

Not all $4 is created equal.

California: $5.90 a gallon
Hawaii: $5.50 
Washington: $5.30
Oklahoma, Iowa, Kansas: under $3.30

If you’re in California right now, $4 national average sounds like a vacation.
If you’re in Kansas, you’re watching the news and thanking your lucky stars you don’t live on the coast.

The national average hitting $4 is a psychological threshold. GasBuddy says $5 nationwide is possible if the strait stays blocked.

$5 is the number where consumer behavior historically breaks.
Road trips get cancelled. Restaurants feel it in foot traffic. Airlines feel it in bookings.

We’re not there yet.

But we’re watching the number with the same energy as a flight tracker when your bag is at the connection airport and you have 22 minutes.


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The Speed of “Ouch”

From Zero to $90 Billion in Three Weeks

source: UCL swift

Six weeks ago, fiber optic stocks were the most boring thing you could own.

Fast forward to this week.

A cluster of fiber optic companies – Lumentum, Coherent, Corning, Ciena – had been on an absolute tear.

Up 44% in 19 days in some cases.

Analysts were raising price targets. Morgan Stanley was projecting a $90 billion market by 2028. BNP Paribas had a Wall Street-high target of $1,040 on Lumentum.

Why?

The AI data center boom needed light and these companies move light through cables at the speed of, well, light.

The thesis was simple, elegant, and very compelling:
AI needs data. Data needs speed. Speed needs light.

Copper is slow. Fiber is fast.

These companies that make fiber optic components are sitting at a chokepoint in the AI buildout. And when capital finds a chokepoint, it floods in.

It was working beautifully.

Until Monday.

Here’s the story 


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Three Punches. Same Day.

Monday was not a good day to own fiber optic stocks.

Or memory stocks.
Or AI construction stocks.


Punch #1 — Google Put The Memory Stocks On A Diet

Google Research published details on a new AI algorithm that needs significantly less memory to run.

Less memory needed = less demand for memory chips = bad day for everyone who owns memory chips.

→ Micron ▼ MU ( ▼ 9.88% )
→ Western Digital ▼ WDC ( ▼ 8.6% )
→ Sandisk ▼ SNDK ( ▼ 7.04% )
→ Seagate ▼ STX ( ▼ 4.64% )

JPMorgan tried to throw Seagate a lifeline — initiating coverage with an “overweight” rating and citing “opportunity for significant upside.”

The stock dropped anyway.

When the tide is going out, a positive analyst note is a bucket of water thrown at the ocean.


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Jim Rickards just found this HUGE RED FLAG for AI stocks…
 
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Because the last time he saw something like this was in 2008…
 
Three weeks before Lehman Brothers went under, triggering a market panic.
 
He believes this major AI company will go bust…
 
In a crisis that could be 10 times bigger than Lehman Brothers.
 


Punch #2 — Samsung Walked In The Door

Here’s the one that rattled the fiber optic names specifically.

Reports broke that Samsung is entering the silicon photonics market.

The entire bull case for optical stocks rested on one idea: these companies own a chokepoint. Limited competition. Pricing power. Margins that stay fat because nobody else can do what they do.

Samsung entering the market doesn’t kill the chokepoint. It widens it.

And a wider chokepoint means thinner margins.

And thinner margins mean the $90 billion market that everyone was so excited about just got a lot more crowded.

Micron ▼ MU ( ▼ 9.6% )
Western Digital ▼ WDC ( ▼ 8.6% )
Sandisk ▼ SNDK ( ▼ 7.04% )
Seagate ▼ STX ( ▼ 4.64% )  

The stocks that were printing all-time highs three weeks ago just had one of their worst days of the year.


Punch #3 — The Whole AI Construction Trade Joined In

When a theme breaks, it tends to break in layers.

Sterling Infrastructure ▼ STRL ( ▼ 8.97% )
Vertiv Holdings ▼ VRT ( ▼ 6.71% )
Emcor ▼ EME ( ▼ 4.34% )

First the headline names. Then the supporting cast. Then everyone checks their portfolio and has a quiet moment alone.


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Where Did The Money Go?

Here’s the interesting part.

While the AI infrastructure trade was getting hammered, another corner of the market was having a quietly excellent Monday.

Software. Specifically, the boring, profitable, subscription-based kind.

→ ServiceNow ▲ NOW ( ▲ 5.59% )
→ Salesforce ▲ CRM ( ▲ 3.19% )
→ CrowdStrike ▲ CRWD ( ▲ 2.84% )
→ Zscaler ▲ ZS ( ▲ 3.08% )
→ Atlassian ▲ TEAM ( ▲ 2.7% )

This is called a rotation. When traders lose confidence in a high-growth, high-risk trade, they don’t put the money under the mattress. They move it somewhere with predictable cash flows, sticky customers, and earnings they can actually model.

SaaS and cybersecurity companies don’t depend on whether Samsung enters photonics or Google builds a leaner algorithm. They just collect their subscriptions every month and go home.

In uncertain markets, boring is beautiful.


The Morgan Stanley Warning …

Someone saw this coming.

Three weeks ago, right in the middle of all the excitement, Morgan Stanley buried one line in their research note:

“Having added ~$180 billion+ of market capitalization over the last year, we have begun to price-in perfection.” (Source: Sherwood, as reported from Morgan Stanley research)

Pricing in perfection means the stocks are only cheap if everything goes right.

No new competitors.
No algorithm efficiency gains.
No demand slowdown.
No Samsung.

The moment Samsung walks through the door, perfection ends.

Monday was perfection ending.

!!! Not financial advice. The stocks mentioned are for educational purposes only. Do your own research before making investment decisions, please check the disclaimer below.


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SpaceX IPO: 30% For Retail?

$80B raise. 3% float. 30% retail…

Last August, Figma went public. The design software company priced its IPO at $33 a share.

By the time the market opened, it was trading at $95.

A 188% gain before most people had finished their morning coffee.

Retail investors – the regular people – watched every dollar of that gain happen in real time.

From the sidelines.

Because that’s how IPOs work.

The institutions get in at $33.

You get in at $95.

If you’re lucky enough to get in at all.

It’s just the system. The banks control the allocation.

Retail gets whatever’s left — which is typically between 5% and 10% of total shares.

However…

SpaceX just announced it’s considering giving retail investors 30% of its IPO.

Three times the normal allocation. For what could be the biggest public offering in human history.

The door that’s been closed for decades just cracked open.

Here’s the story 


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The Biggest IPO Ever. By A Lot.

SpaceX is expected to raise between $40 billion and $80 billion in its IPO.

For context:

The largest IPO in history was Saudi Aramco in 2019, which raised $25.6 billion.

SpaceX at the low end doubles that. At the high end, it nearly triples it.

The company is expected to file confidentially with regulators in the coming days.

A public filing typically follows a couple of months later.

The target date: mid-June.

Which happens to be right before Elon Musk’s 55th birthday.

(He is not subtle.)


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The Playbook Nobody Has Tried Before

SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen carried a message to Wall Street this week that made bankers uncomfortable.

Musk wants ordinary investors to own as much as 30% of the IPO.

In public listings, companies typically allocate no more than 5% to 10% to retail investors.

SpaceX is considering three to six times that.

But the retail allocation is just one piece of a much stranger playbook.

Instead of executives flying around the world on a traditional roadshow – pitching fund managers in conference rooms in New York, London, and Hong Kong – Musk wants investors to come to SpaceX.

Visit the manufacturing facilities.
Watch a rocket launch.
Leave wanting to put in big orders.

Also under consideration: preferential treatment for existing investors in Musk’s other companies – Tesla shareholders and others who’ve already bet on his vision – and unusually long lockup periods that limit how quickly early investors can sell.

This is not how IPOs are done.

It is very much how Musk does things.


Beyond the Spectacle…

For most of financial history, the best investment opportunities were structurally inaccessible to regular people.

Companies stayed private longer.

The gains compounded inside venture capital funds and sovereign wealth portfolios.

With young companies staying private longer, the number of public companies listed on the NYSE shrank from 7,322 in 1996 to roughly half that number by the late 2010s.

The companies that went public were often already past their highest-growth years.

Retail investors got the table scraps of the innovation economy.

SpaceX represents something different.

A company at the absolute frontier of human ambition — rockets, satellites, Starlink, Mars — going public while still in its most explosive growth phase.

And its founder is explicitly choosing to let regular people in at the ground floor.

Not as an afterthought.

As a stated priority.


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The 1979 Iran crisis helped ignite gold’s greatest bull run in history.

Gold set 54 all-time highs that year.

The mining stocks?

They exploded 1,000%… 3,000%… even 13,000%.

History doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes.

One company, right now, is sitting on more gold than the national reserves of most G7 nations…

And it’s still trading at a 99% discount to what it’s actually worth.

Get the name, ticker and buy-up-to price here >>>

 


The Catch (There’s Always One)

A few things worth keeping in your back pocket.

! The 30% is not confirmed.

SpaceX’s CFO floated it to Wall Street. The plan is not final. Investment banks are pushing back — they want to reserve allocation for their institutional clients, who represent billions in recurring business.

 The valuation is extraordinary.

SpaceX is expected to trade at roughly 110 times its 2025 revenue — higher than almost any comparable public company. That’s not a red flag by itself. But it means the stock is pricing in enormous future growth. If that growth is even slightly delayed, early buyers feel it.

! The float is historically thin.

SpaceX is expected to sell only 3% to 4% of its equity in the IPO. That’s the thinnest large-cap float in modern history. A thin float means any sentiment shift — good or bad — hits a narrow order book. PitchBook analysts expect 20% to 30% price swings on news that would move a normal stock by 5%.

! In other words: this is not a trade for the faint-hearted.


The Figma Problem, Solved?

Here’s what’s really being tested with the SpaceX IPO.

For years, the argument for keeping retail out of IPOs was that institutions provide stability — they don’t flip shares on day one, they hold positions, they anchor the price.

Retail, the argument went, is too volatile. Too emotional. Too short-term.

SpaceX’s bet is the opposite.

That retail investors — the ones who watched every Starship launch, who use Starlink in their homes, who actually believe in the mission — will be the most patient holders of all.

That belief, more than any financial model, is what’s actually being tested in June.

If it works, every major IPO after this will have to answer the same question:

Why aren’t you doing what SpaceX did?

!!! Please read this: SpaceX being an incredible company does not make it a safe investment. It has never traded publicly, carries an aggressive valuation, comes with no guarantee of returns and early volatility could be extreme.
Treat this as high-risk capital only.


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More Cake. Fewer Forks.

Engels’ Pause.

source: Britannica

In the early 1800s, in England, factories started producing more than ever before.

Steam engines. Power looms. Iron foundries.

And output exploded.

However… for sixty years, workers saw almost none of it.

Economists call it Engels’ Pause.

While factory owners got rich, real wages for workers barely moved.

The productivity gains were real. The distribution of those gains was not.

Eventually – after six decades – wages caught up.

But for two generations of workers, the math was: More output. Same pay.

Fast forward to March 2026.

The New York State Comptroller just released the annual Wall Street bonus report.

Profits up 30%.

Bonus pool: record high.

Headcount: down.

Here’s the story 


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The Record That Isn’t Quite A Record

Wall Street’s bonus pool hit $49.2 billion in 2025.

A new all-time high. Up 9% from the year before.

The average bonus? $246,900.

Up 6%.

Profits across the securities industry totaled $65.1 billion — a rise of more than 30% in a single year.

Trading activity surged. Underwriting fees climbed. Asset management revenue grew.

Wall Street had, by almost every measure, a spectacular 2025.

But here’s the asterisk hiding in paragraph four of the report.

Adjusted for inflation, the bonus pool peaked in 2006 at $53.7 billion.

The 2025 “record” is Wall Street catching up to itself from twenty years ago.

The headlines were right. They just left out the context.

Engels would recognize the pattern.


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Frozen. On Purpose.

Here’s the number that isn’t making headlines.

Securities industry employment in New York City edged down to 198,200 in 2025.

Down from a 30-year high of 201,500 in 2024.

So let’s make sure we have this right.

Profits up 30%.
Bonus pool up 9%.
Average bonus up 6%.
Headcount: down… with 3,300 fewer people than the year before.

Trading desks run leaner. Algorithms handle what analysts used to. Back-office functions that once employed dozens now run on software.

The industry made more.

It needed less to make it.


The Salary That Lives In A Different City

Step back for a second and look at this number.

The average annual salary in NYC’s securities industry — including bonuses — hit $505,677 in 2024.

That’s nearly five times the average salary in the rest of New York City’s private sector.

Seven times the average private sector wage nationally.

One industry. One city. Five times everyone around them.

And that’s the average.

The CEO-to-median-worker pay ratio at S&P 500 finance firms headquartered in New York State hit 236-to-1 in 2024.

For context: the rest of the nation averaged 194-to-1.

New York’s gap is wider than the country’s gap.

Bonuses alone accounted for 42% of total securities industry wages.

Which means the average Wall Street worker earned more in their bonus check than most Americans earn in an entire year.

The Comptroller noted that 1 in every 13 jobs in New York City is directly or indirectly tied to the securities industry.

Wall Street accounted for 20.2% of all economic activity in the city in 2024.

It is, in every measurable sense, the engine of New York.


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The Hidden Warning In The Report

Here’s the part most outlets skipped entirely.

The Governor’s budget assumed Wall Street bonuses in the broader finance and insurance sector would rise 25.9% this fiscal year.

New York City’s financial plan assumed a 15.1% increase in securities industry bonuses.

DiNapoli’s actual estimate came in below both projections.

The 2025 bonuses will generate $199 million more in state income tax and $91 million more for the city compared to last year.

That sounds like good news.

But if the budget was written assuming even higher bonuses – and the actual number came in lower – that gap has to come from somewhere.

And DiNapoli wasn’t subtle about the risk sitting underneath all of this.

“Geopolitical conflicts have global repercussions that pose extraordinary risks for the short- and long-term outlook on the financial sector and for broader economic markets.”

This is the good news report.

The good news report came with a warning.


Wall Street’s Share Of Everything

Here’s a number that puts it all in perspective.

1 in every 13 jobs in New York City is directly or indirectly tied to the securities industry. – Office of the NY State Comptroller, IMPLAN economic modeling

Wall Street accounted for 20.2% of all economic activity in the city in 2024.

It contributed $6.7 billion to New York City’s budget in FY 2025 alone — up 35% from the year before.

At the state level: $22 billion in tax contributions. Nearly 20% of all state tax collections.

New York State runs on Wall Street… it is, in every measurable sense, the engine of the city.

Which is exactly why the warning at the bottom of this report matters as much as the record at the top.


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Lesson Of The Day:


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