How Much?

source:Yahoo Finance

SpaceX has roughly $100 billion in cash — an enormous cushion by almost any standard.

Sounds like plenty… until you start pricing Elon Musk’s plans.

His spending list keeps growing. Starship is scaling. Starlink is expanding. And SpaceX is pushing into an AI compute buildout.

All of that requires capital — a lot of it. And for investors, the question is becoming more about what it will cost to get there.

KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock put a number on it:

Another $325 billion.

That’s how much he estimates SpaceX may need to raise over the next 18 to 24 months as the company expands its AI compute capacity.

And the calculation: 1 GW of AI capacity.→ Roughly $50 billion. → SpaceX could want six or seven.

Suddenly, that $100 billion cash pile looks a little different.

Here’s the math.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

Did Trump Draw a Red Line Around This Mystery Stock?

When a major U.S. trading partner targeted one American energy company’s profits, Trump publicly warned it was making a “big mistake.”

Why defend this company?
One man believes the answer points to an overlooked opportunity hiding at the center of America’s AI-energy boom.

Click here to learn more

$50 Billion × Seven.

1 KeyBanc’s math starts with one number:
$50B / GW – The industry benchmark for building AI data-center capacity

2 Then comes SpaceX’s expected scale:
6–7 GW – Potential compute capacity by the end of 2027 — below the more aggressive 8–9 GW estimates previously modeled

3 Put those together:
$250–300B – Estimated cumulative capital required for the buildout, before any cost advantages SpaceX might achieve

4 Then factor in SpaceX’s existing cash, spending needs and the pace of the buildout:
~$325B – KeyBanc’s estimate for additional capital SpaceX could need to raise over the next 18–24 months
Source: KeyBanc / Michael Leshock, via Yahoo Finance · August 17, 2026

Put simply, the $325 billion estimate is the cost of scale.
At roughly $50 billion per GW, getting to six or seven gigawatts adds up quickly.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

42 Straight Sells. Zero Buys. So Where Is the AI Money Going?

Nvidia insiders sold $1.8 billion in stock in a single year, according to the report.

One man isn’t abandoning AI he’s looking beyond the infrastructure trade to a mystery cybersecurity company already used by 70% of the Fortune 100.

Click here to learn more

The Funding Gap.

What $325 billion actually means in context.

Put $325 billion in perspective. It’s not simply a large capex number — it would represent multiple rounds of financing over a relatively short period.

If KeyBanc’s estimate is close, SpaceX’s next phase would depend not only on building the infrastructure, but also on maintaining access to enormous amounts of capital while that buildout is underway.

That adds another variable to the investment case: how much SpaceX can build, how quickly it can monetize it, and how much outside capital it takes to get there.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Forget Mag7 – this is where smart money is flowing

A new type of AI called “Accelerated AI” is about to take the world by storm…

And stocks connected to it are already breaking out: 133%… 210%… and even 320% or more just in the last few months.

But it’s just getting started…

If you want to learn more about “Accelerated AI” – and get name and ticker of the #1 pick to play this opportunity…

Click here for more details. (No purchase necessary.)
 

And The Stock? Up↑

While the projected capital bill is getting bigger, the stock has been recovering.

✱ SpaceX  SPCX ( ▲ 4.3% ) was roughly 41% above its August 3 intraday low in less than two weeks, extending its rebound following the post-earnings selloff and lockup-related volatility.

That creates an interesting split: KeyBanc is modeling hundreds of billions in future financing needs while investors are pushing the stock higher.

For now, the market appears willing to look past the size of the bill.

The next question is what SpaceX can deliver for it.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon’s next move is brewing, and it’s bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
Get the Name & Ticker — Free

Q2.

The number that changed the math:

Second-quarter capex came in at roughly three times Wall Street’s estimate, showing that the buildout is already moving at a much more capital-intensive pace than analysts had expected.

SpaceX also stopped short of providing specific 2026 guidance, leaving analysts to estimate how quickly that spending could grow from here.

KeyBanc’s $325 billion forecast is one attempt to answer that question.

Flight 14↓

SpaceX expects Starship to fly again this month, with Flight 14 testing another important piece of the company’s long-term plan: making the system rapidly reusable while deploying upgraded Starlink satellites.

The bigger target is cadence.

Musk said SpaceX expects Starship flights to increase rapidly, adding that “probably a year from now, we will be doing at least 1 flight a day, possibly more.”

One flight a day would require a very different operating model from today —
→ faster turnaround,
→ reliable recovery and
→ hardware that can be flown repeatedly rather than replaced.

Every dollar of the $325 billion capital question ultimately depends on whether reusability milestones like this one actually land on schedule.

The Most Skeptical Voice:

Piper Sandler cut its target from $156 to $140 on August 4, keeping a Neutral rating.

Two concerns stand out:
→ First, the firm raised its own FY27 capex forecast to roughly $65 billion — about $17 billion higher than its prior estimate, underscoring just how much the spending picture keeps expanding even among cautious analysts.

→ Second, Piper flagged that SpaceX’s AI cloud contracts remain cancelable despite being highly profitable — meaning future revenue is less predictable than the headline numbers suggest, since customers aren’t locked in the way a normal long-term contract would lock them in.

The first concern reinforces what KeyBanc is seeing: analysts are raising their estimates for how much SpaceX may have to spend.

The second is about what sits on the other side of that spending.

If AI infrastructure requires tens of billions in upfront capital while some customer contracts remain cancelable, investors have less certainty around how much future revenue is locked in against those investments.

That means the capital commitments and customer commitments don’t necessarily carry the same level of certainty.

Short sellers, meanwhile, haven’t made a large bet against the story. Short interest stands at just 2.67% of shares — though with SpaceX only recently public, there isn’t enough history yet to read too much into that figure.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

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How Much?

source:Yahoo Finance

SpaceX has roughly $100 billion in cash — an enormous cushion by almost any standard.

Sounds like plenty… until you start pricing Elon Musk’s plans.

His spending list keeps growing. Starship is scaling. Starlink is expanding. And SpaceX is pushing into an AI compute buildout.

All of that requires capital — a lot of it. And for investors, the question is becoming more about what it will cost to get there.

KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock put a number on it:

Another $325 billion.

That’s how much he estimates SpaceX may need to raise over the next 18 to 24 months as the company expands its AI compute capacity.

And the calculation: 1 GW of AI capacity.→ Roughly $50 billion. → SpaceX could want six or seven.

Suddenly, that $100 billion cash pile looks a little different.

Here’s the math.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

Did Trump Draw a Red Line Around This Mystery Stock?

When a major U.S. trading partner targeted one American energy company’s profits, Trump publicly warned it was making a “big mistake.”

Why defend this company?
One man believes the answer points to an overlooked opportunity hiding at the center of America’s AI-energy boom.

Click here to learn more

$50 Billion × Seven.

1 KeyBanc’s math starts with one number:
$50B / GW – The industry benchmark for building AI data-center capacity

2 Then comes SpaceX’s expected scale:
6–7 GW – Potential compute capacity by the end of 2027 — below the more aggressive 8–9 GW estimates previously modeled

3 Put those together:
$250–300B – Estimated cumulative capital required for the buildout, before any cost advantages SpaceX might achieve

4 Then factor in SpaceX’s existing cash, spending needs and the pace of the buildout:
~$325B – KeyBanc’s estimate for additional capital SpaceX could need to raise over the next 18–24 months
Source: KeyBanc / Michael Leshock, via Yahoo Finance · August 17, 2026

Put simply, the $325 billion estimate is the cost of scale.
At roughly $50 billion per GW, getting to six or seven gigawatts adds up quickly.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

42 Straight Sells. Zero Buys. So Where Is the AI Money Going?

Nvidia insiders sold $1.8 billion in stock in a single year, according to the report.

One man isn’t abandoning AI he’s looking beyond the infrastructure trade to a mystery cybersecurity company already used by 70% of the Fortune 100.

Click here to learn more

The Funding Gap.

What $325 billion actually means in context.

Put $325 billion in perspective. It’s not simply a large capex number — it would represent multiple rounds of financing over a relatively short period.

If KeyBanc’s estimate is close, SpaceX’s next phase would depend not only on building the infrastructure, but also on maintaining access to enormous amounts of capital while that buildout is underway.

That adds another variable to the investment case: how much SpaceX can build, how quickly it can monetize it, and how much outside capital it takes to get there.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Forget Mag7 – this is where smart money is flowing

A new type of AI called “Accelerated AI” is about to take the world by storm…

And stocks connected to it are already breaking out: 133%… 210%… and even 320% or more just in the last few months.

But it’s just getting started…

If you want to learn more about “Accelerated AI” – and get name and ticker of the #1 pick to play this opportunity…

Click here for more details. (No purchase necessary.)
 

And The Stock? Up↑

While the projected capital bill is getting bigger, the stock has been recovering.

✱ SpaceX  SPCX ( ▲ 4.3% ) was roughly 41% above its August 3 intraday low in less than two weeks, extending its rebound following the post-earnings selloff and lockup-related volatility.

That creates an interesting split: KeyBanc is modeling hundreds of billions in future financing needs while investors are pushing the stock higher.

For now, the market appears willing to look past the size of the bill.

The next question is what SpaceX can deliver for it.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon’s next move is brewing, and it’s bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
Get the Name & Ticker — Free

Q2.

The number that changed the math:

Second-quarter capex came in at roughly three times Wall Street’s estimate, showing that the buildout is already moving at a much more capital-intensive pace than analysts had expected.

SpaceX also stopped short of providing specific 2026 guidance, leaving analysts to estimate how quickly that spending could grow from here.

KeyBanc’s $325 billion forecast is one attempt to answer that question.

Flight 14↓

SpaceX expects Starship to fly again this month, with Flight 14 testing another important piece of the company’s long-term plan: making the system rapidly reusable while deploying upgraded Starlink satellites.

The bigger target is cadence.

Musk said SpaceX expects Starship flights to increase rapidly, adding that “probably a year from now, we will be doing at least 1 flight a day, possibly more.”

One flight a day would require a very different operating model from today —
→ faster turnaround,
→ reliable recovery and
→ hardware that can be flown repeatedly rather than replaced.

Every dollar of the $325 billion capital question ultimately depends on whether reusability milestones like this one actually land on schedule.

The Most Skeptical Voice:

Piper Sandler cut its target from $156 to $140 on August 4, keeping a Neutral rating.

Two concerns stand out:
→ First, the firm raised its own FY27 capex forecast to roughly $65 billion — about $17 billion higher than its prior estimate, underscoring just how much the spending picture keeps expanding even among cautious analysts.

→ Second, Piper flagged that SpaceX’s AI cloud contracts remain cancelable despite being highly profitable — meaning future revenue is less predictable than the headline numbers suggest, since customers aren’t locked in the way a normal long-term contract would lock them in.

The first concern reinforces what KeyBanc is seeing: analysts are raising their estimates for how much SpaceX may have to spend.

The second is about what sits on the other side of that spending.

If AI infrastructure requires tens of billions in upfront capital while some customer contracts remain cancelable, investors have less certainty around how much future revenue is locked in against those investments.

That means the capital commitments and customer commitments don’t necessarily carry the same level of certainty.

Short sellers, meanwhile, haven’t made a large bet against the story. Short interest stands at just 2.67% of shares — though with SpaceX only recently public, there isn’t enough history yet to read too much into that figure.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Season Two.

Bill Ackman and Netflix have done this before.

Pershing Square built a major position in the streamer in early 2022, then exited just months later after Netflix’s subscriber slowdown sent the shares sharply lower. The round trip cost the fund more than $400 million.

Roll the credits.

Or so it seemed.

Four years later, Pershing Square’s latest filing arrived with Netflix back in the portfolio — 3.15 million shares, accounting for 4.9% of the fund.

And Netflix wasn’t the only new addition.

The filing revealed five other new positions in Pershing Square’s first public disclosure since its NYSE debut in April — giving us the clearest look yet at where Ackman is putting money now.

Here is the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

42 Straight Sells. Zero Buys. So Where Is the AI Money Going?

Nvidia insiders sold $1.8 billion in stock in a single year, according to the report.

One man isn’t abandoning AI he’s looking beyond the infrastructure trade to a mystery cybersecurity company already used by 70% of the Fortune 100.

Click here to learn more

The Netflix Arc.

The fund expects double-digit revenue growth alongside expanding margins as content costs grow more slowly than revenue. It also argues Netflix  NFLX ( ▲ 5.43% ) currently trades at a substantial valuation discount.

And that’s the important difference between 2022 and 2026.

Back then, the subscriber decline raised a much bigger question about whether Netflix’s growth could continue as streaming competition intensified.

→ Four years later, Pershing Square believes that competitive picture has changed enough to revisit the stock.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Forget Mag7 – this is where smart money is flowing

A new type of AI called “Accelerated AI” is about to take the world by storm…

And stocks connected to it are already breaking out: 133%… 210%… and even 320% or more just in the last few months.

But it’s just getting started…

If you want to learn more about “Accelerated AI” – and get name and ticker of the #1 pick to play this opportunity…

Click here for more details. (No purchase necessary.)
 

The Other Five Positions.

There’s a noticeable pattern in four of the five.

→ Visa  V ( ▲ 1.68% ) and Mastercard  MA ( ▲ 1.31% ) sit between consumers and trillions of dollars of payments.
→ S&P Global sits deep inside credit markets, benchmarks and financial data.
→ ICE ICE ( ▲ 2.58% ) operates exchanges, clearing houses and market-data businesses.

Different businesses, but they share an attractive characteristic: they occupy infrastructure that other parts of the financial system repeatedly need to use.

Alcon $ALC ( ▲ 1.35% ) , the eye-care company, is the obvious departure from that theme.

And two of these positions — ICE and Alcon — were added after June 30, so the filing itself is already slightly behind Pershing Square’s current portfolio.

Ackman and Ryan Israel offered another clue in their Q2 letter:
“A market focused on artificial intelligence had created opportunities in other stocks.“

That may be the bigger message behind the new portfolio.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon’s next move is brewing, and it’s bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
Get the Name & Ticker — Free

The Existing Top Three↓

Here is Pershing Square’s biggest conviction.

✱ And Microsoft is worth another look.

We covered it yesterday from a very different angle: strong Azure growth, a massive contracted backlog and overwhelming analyst support, all while the stock has lagged its hyperscaler peers.

Ackman started building Pershing Square’s Microsoft position in February 2026, while the shares were under pressure, describing the company as a “core holding” purchased at a “highly compelling valuation.”

Now it’s Pershing Square’s largest disclosed position.

The Scoreboard.

Pershing Square’s new positions tell us where Ackman sees opportunity.
Here’s how the fund has performed so far.

Netflix and several of the other new positions were established during or after the reporting period, so their impact isn’t fully reflected in the fund’s performance since April.

Still, +0.6% is useful context alongside the portfolio changes disclosed this week.

The filing shows where Pershing Square is positioning now. How those positions contribute to returns will become clearer over time.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Season Two.

Bill Ackman and Netflix have done this before.

Pershing Square built a major position in the streamer in early 2022, then exited just months later after Netflix’s subscriber slowdown sent the shares sharply lower. The round trip cost the fund more than $400 million.

Roll the credits.

Or so it seemed.

Four years later, Pershing Square’s latest filing arrived with Netflix back in the portfolio — 3.15 million shares, accounting for 4.9% of the fund.

And Netflix wasn’t the only new addition.

The filing revealed five other new positions in Pershing Square’s first public disclosure since its NYSE debut in April — giving us the clearest look yet at where Ackman is putting money now.

Here is the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

42 Straight Sells. Zero Buys. So Where Is the AI Money Going?

Nvidia insiders sold $1.8 billion in stock in a single year, according to the report.

One man isn’t abandoning AI he’s looking beyond the infrastructure trade to a mystery cybersecurity company already used by 70% of the Fortune 100.

Click here to learn more

The Netflix Arc.

The fund expects double-digit revenue growth alongside expanding margins as content costs grow more slowly than revenue. It also argues Netflix  NFLX ( ▲ 5.43% ) currently trades at a substantial valuation discount.

And that’s the important difference between 2022 and 2026.

Back then, the subscriber decline raised a much bigger question about whether Netflix’s growth could continue as streaming competition intensified.

→ Four years later, Pershing Square believes that competitive picture has changed enough to revisit the stock.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Forget Mag7 – this is where smart money is flowing

A new type of AI called “Accelerated AI” is about to take the world by storm…

And stocks connected to it are already breaking out: 133%… 210%… and even 320% or more just in the last few months.

But it’s just getting started…

If you want to learn more about “Accelerated AI” – and get name and ticker of the #1 pick to play this opportunity…

Click here for more details. (No purchase necessary.)
 

The Other Five Positions.

There’s a noticeable pattern in four of the five.

→ Visa  V ( ▲ 1.68% ) and Mastercard  MA ( ▲ 1.31% ) sit between consumers and trillions of dollars of payments.
→ S&P Global sits deep inside credit markets, benchmarks and financial data.
→ ICE ICE ( ▲ 2.58% ) operates exchanges, clearing houses and market-data businesses.

Different businesses, but they share an attractive characteristic: they occupy infrastructure that other parts of the financial system repeatedly need to use.

Alcon $ALC ( ▲ 1.35% ) , the eye-care company, is the obvious departure from that theme.

And two of these positions — ICE and Alcon — were added after June 30, so the filing itself is already slightly behind Pershing Square’s current portfolio.

Ackman and Ryan Israel offered another clue in their Q2 letter:
“A market focused on artificial intelligence had created opportunities in other stocks.“

That may be the bigger message behind the new portfolio.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon’s next move is brewing, and it’s bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
Get the Name & Ticker — Free

The Existing Top Three↓

Here is Pershing Square’s biggest conviction.

✱ And Microsoft is worth another look.

We covered it yesterday from a very different angle: strong Azure growth, a massive contracted backlog and overwhelming analyst support, all while the stock has lagged its hyperscaler peers.

Ackman started building Pershing Square’s Microsoft position in February 2026, while the shares were under pressure, describing the company as a “core holding” purchased at a “highly compelling valuation.”

Now it’s Pershing Square’s largest disclosed position.

The Scoreboard.

Pershing Square’s new positions tell us where Ackman sees opportunity.
Here’s how the fund has performed so far.

Netflix and several of the other new positions were established during or after the reporting period, so their impact isn’t fully reflected in the fund’s performance since April.

Still, +0.6% is useful context alongside the portfolio changes disclosed this week.

The filing shows where Pershing Square is positioning now. How those positions contribute to returns will become clearer over time.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Zero ”Sell ratings”.

That’s unusual.

What’s more unusual is what the stock has done while Wall Street has been this confident.

Over the past year, Alphabet gained 69%. Amazon gained 21%. Microsoft fell.

You could explain that away if Microsoft’s business had fallen behind too.

But:
→ Azure kept growing.
→ Earnings kept beating expectations.
→ Microsoft’s contracted revenue surged.
→ And analysts kept their Buy ratings.

So we have three hyperscalers riding the same AI boom, two stocks that took off — and one that Wall Street still thinks has some catching up to do.

Here is the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

42 Straight Sells. Zero Buys. So Where Is the AI Money Going?

Nvidia insiders sold $1.8 billion in stock in a single year, according to the report.

One man isn’t abandoning AI he’s looking beyond the infrastructure trade to a mystery cybersecurity company already used by 70% of the Fortune 100.

Click here to learn more

Same Boom. Very Different Charts.

Alphabet  GOOG ( ▲ 0.55% ) and Amazon  AMZN ( ▼ 0.37% ) rallied.

Their cloud businesses gave investors plenty to work with. Google Cloud grew 82% in Q2, while AWS accelerated 37%, its fastest growth in 18 quarters.

The strange part: Microsoft MSFT ( ▲ 0.87% ) has been participating in the same cloud and AI spending cycle — just without the same enthusiasm showing up in its share price.

And even on a YTD basis, the contrast is hard to miss:
→ Microsoft’s 2.3% gain trails the S&P 500’s 13.3% by roughly 11 percentage points.

That’s what makes Microsoft interesting here.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Forget Mag7 – this is where smart money is flowing

A new type of AI called “Accelerated AI” is about to take the world by storm…

And stocks connected to it are already breaking out: 133%… 210%… and even 320% or more just in the last few months.

But it’s just getting started…

If you want to learn more about “Accelerated AI” – and get name and ticker of the #1 pick to play this opportunity…

Click here for more details. (No purchase necessary.)
 

The Recent Bounce.

The stock has already made up some ground.

It has bounced +25.94% from its July low, but still sits below both consensus target (+15% upside) and the street-high target (+74% upside).

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

Buy this “Anti-OpenAI” stock

Just months ago, OpenAI was in line to become the next $1 trillion AI juggernaut.

This week, it has been deemed “a bloodbath.”

OpenAI sales goals are on pace to fall short by 90%.

That’s a big problem for Sam Altman to fix.

However, it’s an even more urgent catastrophe for the publicly-traded companies that have struck deals with OpenAI.

In other words, companies who have invested hundreds of billions upfront for a promise that OpenAI will pay them back once it’s profitable.

Already, the dominoes are falling…

Share prices of OpenAI’s partners have crashed as much as 30% since last month.

Goldman Sachs says there are “signs of panic” among companies lending money to AI firms, like OpenAI.

Here’s what you must understand today:

The companies primed to crash as OpenAI’s contagion spreads are likely in your portfolio, with one blue-chip tech stock set to fare the worst.

I reveal the name and ticker of that company to sell right here in this video. 

Near-Unanimous↓

✱ Zero Sell ratings among 57 analysts covering the stock is a genuinely unusual level of consensus.

Recent revisions have skewed toward upgrades rather than cuts — meaning this bullishness held through a full year of price weakness, not just after the recent bounce.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

Will You Survive the MAR-A-LAGO RESET?

Bloomberg calls it “a dire shift of fortunes for America” and The Wall Street Journal calls it a “New World Order.” Now, Dr. David Eifrig – a 40-year market veteran who traded through Black Monday and has recommended more than a dozen triple-digit winners – warns that you must make one of the most important financial decisions of your lifetime today. He strongly recommends this ONE step to potentially secure your retirement.

The Bull Case.

So, What Does Wall Street See?

→ $678B — Already contracted
Microsoft’s commercial backlog surged 84% to $678 billion. That’s revenue customers have committed to, but Microsoft hasn’t recognized yet — giving the company an unusually large window into future demand.

→ $100B — Azure is monetizing it
Azure crossed $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, while Microsoft 365 Copilot passed 30 million paid seats. AI demand is increasingly showing up as actual revenue and subscriptions.

→ $133.75B — Profits are following
FY26 net income climbed 31.34% to $133.75 billion, giving bulls evidence that Microsoft’s enormous infrastructure spending is producing earnings alongside the growth.

Backlog. Monetization. Profit. That’s the argument behind those 54 bullish ratings.

And Then There’s The $870 Call.

!!! Analyst opinion — not a TradingLessons recommendation

Arete Research sits at the far end of the bullish camp with a $870 price target — roughly 76% above Microsoft’s current price.

The thesis assumes Azure AI keeps expanding as businesses move AI workloads from experimentation into everyday operations, while Copilot adoption continues across the enterprise.

That’s a lot of execution baked into one target.

Microsoft wouldn’t get there on the strength of another good quarter.
The $870 case requires Azure, Copilot, and AI monetization to keep delivering for years.

Source: Arete Research

Now For The Part The Bulls Need To Prove…

✱ Microsoft has the growth. The next question is whether all that AI spending can translate into more cash.

1 The bull case
— Azure stays above 40% growth for another quarter or two
— Copilot keeps adding paid seats
— Capex growth begins to moderate
— The $678B backlog starts showing up more clearly in free cash flow

2 The bear case
— Azure begins to decelerate
— Copilot adoption starts leveling off
— AI infrastructure produces lower returns than expected
— Heavy capex continues weighing on cash generation

And here’s the number that keeps this from being an easy bull case:

→ Net income: +31%
→ Free cash flow: -6.46%

Microsoft is earning substantially more on paper while generating less free cash after its enormous infrastructure spending.

For the bulls, that’s the temporary cost of building AI capacity ahead of demand. For the bears, it’s exactly the number worth watching.

The $678 billion backlog looks impressive. Turning it into more cash is the next test.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

Zero ”Sell ratings”.

That’s unusual.

What’s more unusual is what the stock has done while Wall Street has been this confident.

Over the past year, Alphabet gained 69%. Amazon gained 21%. Microsoft fell.

You could explain that away if Microsoft’s business had fallen behind too.

But:
→ Azure kept growing.
→ Earnings kept beating expectations.
→ Microsoft’s contracted revenue surged.
→ And analysts kept their Buy ratings.

So we have three hyperscalers riding the same AI boom, two stocks that took off — and one that Wall Street still thinks has some catching up to do.

Here is the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

42 Straight Sells. Zero Buys. So Where Is the AI Money Going?

Nvidia insiders sold $1.8 billion in stock in a single year, according to the report.

One man isn’t abandoning AI he’s looking beyond the infrastructure trade to a mystery cybersecurity company already used by 70% of the Fortune 100.

Click here to learn more

Same Boom. Very Different Charts.

Alphabet  GOOG ( ▲ 0.55% ) and Amazon  AMZN ( ▼ 0.37% ) rallied.

Their cloud businesses gave investors plenty to work with. Google Cloud grew 82% in Q2, while AWS accelerated 37%, its fastest growth in 18 quarters.

The strange part: Microsoft MSFT ( ▲ 0.87% ) has been participating in the same cloud and AI spending cycle — just without the same enthusiasm showing up in its share price.

And even on a YTD basis, the contrast is hard to miss:
→ Microsoft’s 2.3% gain trails the S&P 500’s 13.3% by roughly 11 percentage points.

That’s what makes Microsoft interesting here.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Forget Mag7 – this is where smart money is flowing

A new type of AI called “Accelerated AI” is about to take the world by storm…

And stocks connected to it are already breaking out: 133%… 210%… and even 320% or more just in the last few months.

But it’s just getting started…

If you want to learn more about “Accelerated AI” – and get name and ticker of the #1 pick to play this opportunity…

Click here for more details. (No purchase necessary.)
 

The Recent Bounce.

The stock has already made up some ground.

It has bounced +25.94% from its July low, but still sits below both consensus target (+15% upside) and the street-high target (+74% upside).

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

Buy this “Anti-OpenAI” stock

Just months ago, OpenAI was in line to become the next $1 trillion AI juggernaut.

This week, it has been deemed “a bloodbath.”

OpenAI sales goals are on pace to fall short by 90%.

That’s a big problem for Sam Altman to fix.

However, it’s an even more urgent catastrophe for the publicly-traded companies that have struck deals with OpenAI.

In other words, companies who have invested hundreds of billions upfront for a promise that OpenAI will pay them back once it’s profitable.

Already, the dominoes are falling…

Share prices of OpenAI’s partners have crashed as much as 30% since last month.

Goldman Sachs says there are “signs of panic” among companies lending money to AI firms, like OpenAI.

Here’s what you must understand today:

The companies primed to crash as OpenAI’s contagion spreads are likely in your portfolio, with one blue-chip tech stock set to fare the worst.

I reveal the name and ticker of that company to sell right here in this video. 

Near-Unanimous↓

✱ Zero Sell ratings among 57 analysts covering the stock is a genuinely unusual level of consensus.

Recent revisions have skewed toward upgrades rather than cuts — meaning this bullishness held through a full year of price weakness, not just after the recent bounce.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

Will You Survive the MAR-A-LAGO RESET?

Bloomberg calls it “a dire shift of fortunes for America” and The Wall Street Journal calls it a “New World Order.” Now, Dr. David Eifrig – a 40-year market veteran who traded through Black Monday and has recommended more than a dozen triple-digit winners – warns that you must make one of the most important financial decisions of your lifetime today. He strongly recommends this ONE step to potentially secure your retirement.

The Bull Case.

So, What Does Wall Street See?

→ $678B — Already contracted
Microsoft’s commercial backlog surged 84% to $678 billion. That’s revenue customers have committed to, but Microsoft hasn’t recognized yet — giving the company an unusually large window into future demand.

→ $100B — Azure is monetizing it
Azure crossed $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, while Microsoft 365 Copilot passed 30 million paid seats. AI demand is increasingly showing up as actual revenue and subscriptions.

→ $133.75B — Profits are following
FY26 net income climbed 31.34% to $133.75 billion, giving bulls evidence that Microsoft’s enormous infrastructure spending is producing earnings alongside the growth.

Backlog. Monetization. Profit. That’s the argument behind those 54 bullish ratings.

And Then There’s The $870 Call.

!!! Analyst opinion — not a TradingLessons recommendation

Arete Research sits at the far end of the bullish camp with a $870 price target — roughly 76% above Microsoft’s current price.

The thesis assumes Azure AI keeps expanding as businesses move AI workloads from experimentation into everyday operations, while Copilot adoption continues across the enterprise.

That’s a lot of execution baked into one target.

Microsoft wouldn’t get there on the strength of another good quarter.
The $870 case requires Azure, Copilot, and AI monetization to keep delivering for years.

Source: Arete Research

Now For The Part The Bulls Need To Prove…

✱ Microsoft has the growth. The next question is whether all that AI spending can translate into more cash.

1 The bull case
— Azure stays above 40% growth for another quarter or two
— Copilot keeps adding paid seats
— Capex growth begins to moderate
— The $678B backlog starts showing up more clearly in free cash flow

2 The bear case
— Azure begins to decelerate
— Copilot adoption starts leveling off
— AI infrastructure produces lower returns than expected
— Heavy capex continues weighing on cash generation

And here’s the number that keeps this from being an easy bull case:

→ Net income: +31%
→ Free cash flow: -6.46%

Microsoft is earning substantially more on paper while generating less free cash after its enormous infrastructure spending.

For the bulls, that’s the temporary cost of building AI capacity ahead of demand. For the bears, it’s exactly the number worth watching.

The $678 billion backlog looks impressive. Turning it into more cash is the next test.

Lesson Of The Day:

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The ”Perimeter of Debt”.

Burry just added to his four biggest shorts and compared today’s market to 2005 — right before the mortgage crisis.

His latest warning: the debt the market may not be counting.

After building bearish positions across semiconductors and some of the market’s biggest AI names, he added again this week — including to Nvidia, Palantir, Oracle, Caterpillar, and SOXX.

Then he brought up 2005.

His concern goes deeper into the AI supply chain — long-term leases, purchase agreements, power contracts, and other commitments that companies may be taking on today to secure tomorrow’s capacity.

Burry has a name for it: The “perimeter of debt.”

And the timing makes his argument particularly interesting.

Because while Burry is warning about what sits underneath the AI buildout, some of the companies he’s betting against are reporting extraordinary demand.

One of them just grew revenue 454% and jumped 26%.

So who’s reading the AI boom correctly?

Here is the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

Phase 2 of the AI Supercycle Has Arrived

Google’s DeepMind CEO says AI will be “10X bigger than the Industrial Revolution. And maybe 10X faster.”

Best-selling financial author Alexander Green has identified three companies positioned to soar.

He was right about Apple. In 1996. Under $1 a share.

He was right about Netflix. At $1.62.

He was right about Amazon. Under $2.

He warned his readers about the dot-com crash. One month before it peaked.

He warned about the housing crisis. Nine months before Lehman Brothers collapsed.

Now Alexander Green says the biggest wealth-creation event of his 40-year career is unfolding right now.

He calls it Phase 2 of the AI Supercycle.

And he’s identified three stocks he believes could dominate the next phase.

CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT IF HE’S RIGHT

What He Added?

Burry has been building this bearish view for weeks, and this week’s moves show his conviction is growing.

He described Nvidia NVDA ( ▲ 2.85% ) , Palantir PLTR ( ▼ 2.42% ) , and Oracle ORCL ( ▲ 5.03% ) as his three largest shorts, then increased bearish exposure elsewhere across the AI buildout.

Caterpillar  CAT ( ▲ 2.58% ) may be the most revealing of the group.
Burry increased his short at $844 with a simple explanation: “Data center plans are already aging.”

✱ That pushes his argument beyond chips and software. He’s now expressing the same concern across the physical infrastructure supporting the AI expansion — from semiconductors to data centers and the equipment used to build them.

The short book is starting to look less like a collection of stocks and more like one big bet on the AI buildout.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Do this before November 3

For the last 78 years, one thing has predicted a bull market…

With 100% accuracy…

The midterm election.

It doesn’t matter which party wins.

Or what the economic conditions are.

In war and in peace…

The 12 months following a midterm election are the most profitable.

This midterm will be no different.

And I just caught Wall Street sneaking money into two stocks — ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
 

What’s “Perimeter of Debt”?

Burry says his upcoming research takes “a wider interpretation of liabilities.”

The basic idea: a company can take on obligations that behave a lot like debt without ever calling them debt.

His focus is on the enormous long-term commitments being made across the AI buildout. Data centers and AI companies are locking themselves into contracts for chips, power, compute capacity, and other infrastructure — sometimes years in advance and with no easy way to cancel.

→ Those commitments may not appear as traditional borrowings on the balance sheet.

But Burry’s argument is that the risk is still there.

If a company commits to spending billions over the next several years and can’t walk away from the contract, that obligation starts behaving a lot like debt — whether accounting rules label it that way or not.

That’s what he means by expanding the “perimeter of debt.”

Instead of looking only at how much traditional debt a company carries, Burry wants to draw a much wider circle around its obligations — including contracts, purchase commitments, leases, backstops, and other promises that could become painful if demand slows or the AI buildout gets pulled back.

And that’s why he says circular financing isn’t really the issue.

Burry’s argument asks how much money companies have already committed to spending — whether it’s officially called debt or not.

His concern is what happens if the boom reverses while all those commitments are still there.

!!! “Perimeter of debt” → How much debt-like risk exists across the AI supply chain, including obligations that don’t appear as traditional debt.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon’s next move is brewing, and it’s bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
Get the Name & Ticker — Free

Burry’s Two Historical Parallels↓

1 2005-06

Goldman Sachs held a $3 billion complex mortgage position that looked dangerous enough to threaten the system — right around when Burry made his famous housing short. Goldman managed to offload the position. Once it did, other banks, including Merrill Lynch, loaded up on similar risk in 2006 — risk that helped destroy them two years later. Burry’s point: one firm exiting doesn’t mean the risk disappeared. It just moved to whoever was willing to buy it next.

2 Enron

Burry says today’s dynamic has “shades of Enron’s effort to make wholesale power an investable class” — a reference to Enron’s attempt to turn ordinary electricity trading into a tradeable, packageable financial product, years before its collapse exposed how much hidden leverage and accounting manipulation was underneath that effort.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

The Prophet’s” #1 Retirement Stock Right Now — Free

Whitney Tilson — the man CNBC calls “The Prophet,” twice featured on 60 Minutes — is revealing the name and ticker of what he calls America’s Greatest Retirement Stock.

Completely free.

It’s already outperformed Apple, Amazon, and the S&P 500 combined…

A billionaire put 60% of his $9 billion fund into it…

And Google’s former CEO just partnered with it directly.

Right now it’s trading at a rare discount.

>>> No email required. Get the name free.<<<

So Far, The Scorecard Is Split.

On the surface, that’s an even split: two stocks moving against the bearish view, two moving with it.

But YTD performance isn’t Burry’s actual P&L.
He entered these positions at different prices, at different times, and in some cases through puts with specific strikes and expirations.

So this isn’t really a 2–2 win-loss record.

→ It’s a snapshot of something more interesting: the same AI buildout Burry is betting against is already producing very different outcomes across the stocks tied to it.

Meanwhile, Retail Has Picked A Side.

Burry’s skepticism isn’t getting much company from retail traders.

Three of the four names lean bullish among retail traders, including Palantir, where Burry has been increasing both his put exposure and direct short position.

✱ Oracle is the exception. It’s the only name where retail sentiment currently points in the same bearish direction as Burry’s trade.

So while Burry keeps adding to the bearish side of the AI buildout, retail is mostly standing on the other side.

Burry Is Buying Too…

✱ For all the attention on his shorts, Burry still has plenty of conviction on the other side of the market.

He added to Molina Healthcare $MOH ( ▲ 4.62% )  at $198, bringing the position back in line with some of the largest holdings in his portfolio. Burry said its relative weight had fallen because of other capital movements — not because his view of the company had changed.

His outlook remains long-term bullish, with one additional wrinkle: Burry said the current political season may be developing favorably for Molina, calling it a “nice surprise.”

He didn’t elaborate on exactly which policy developments he was referring to.

So while Burry is adding to shorts across the AI buildout, he’s also putting more capital behind one of his highest-conviction longs.

Bearish on the buildout. Still very willing to buy elsewhere.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

The ”Perimeter of Debt”.

Burry just added to his four biggest shorts and compared today’s market to 2005 — right before the mortgage crisis.

His latest warning: the debt the market may not be counting.

After building bearish positions across semiconductors and some of the market’s biggest AI names, he added again this week — including to Nvidia, Palantir, Oracle, Caterpillar, and SOXX.

Then he brought up 2005.

His concern goes deeper into the AI supply chain — long-term leases, purchase agreements, power contracts, and other commitments that companies may be taking on today to secure tomorrow’s capacity.

Burry has a name for it: The “perimeter of debt.”

And the timing makes his argument particularly interesting.

Because while Burry is warning about what sits underneath the AI buildout, some of the companies he’s betting against are reporting extraordinary demand.

One of them just grew revenue 454% and jumped 26%.

So who’s reading the AI boom correctly?

Here is the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

Phase 2 of the AI Supercycle Has Arrived

Google’s DeepMind CEO says AI will be “10X bigger than the Industrial Revolution. And maybe 10X faster.”

Best-selling financial author Alexander Green has identified three companies positioned to soar.

He was right about Apple. In 1996. Under $1 a share.

He was right about Netflix. At $1.62.

He was right about Amazon. Under $2.

He warned his readers about the dot-com crash. One month before it peaked.

He warned about the housing crisis. Nine months before Lehman Brothers collapsed.

Now Alexander Green says the biggest wealth-creation event of his 40-year career is unfolding right now.

He calls it Phase 2 of the AI Supercycle.

And he’s identified three stocks he believes could dominate the next phase.

CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT IF HE’S RIGHT

What He Added?

Burry has been building this bearish view for weeks, and this week’s moves show his conviction is growing.

He described Nvidia NVDA ( ▲ 2.85% ) , Palantir PLTR ( ▼ 2.42% ) , and Oracle ORCL ( ▲ 5.03% ) as his three largest shorts, then increased bearish exposure elsewhere across the AI buildout.

Caterpillar  CAT ( ▲ 2.58% ) may be the most revealing of the group.
Burry increased his short at $844 with a simple explanation: “Data center plans are already aging.”

✱ That pushes his argument beyond chips and software. He’s now expressing the same concern across the physical infrastructure supporting the AI expansion — from semiconductors to data centers and the equipment used to build them.

The short book is starting to look less like a collection of stocks and more like one big bet on the AI buildout.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Do this before November 3

For the last 78 years, one thing has predicted a bull market…

With 100% accuracy…

The midterm election.

It doesn’t matter which party wins.

Or what the economic conditions are.

In war and in peace…

The 12 months following a midterm election are the most profitable.

This midterm will be no different.

And I just caught Wall Street sneaking money into two stocks — ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
 

What’s “Perimeter of Debt”?

Burry says his upcoming research takes “a wider interpretation of liabilities.”

The basic idea: a company can take on obligations that behave a lot like debt without ever calling them debt.

His focus is on the enormous long-term commitments being made across the AI buildout. Data centers and AI companies are locking themselves into contracts for chips, power, compute capacity, and other infrastructure — sometimes years in advance and with no easy way to cancel.

→ Those commitments may not appear as traditional borrowings on the balance sheet.

But Burry’s argument is that the risk is still there.

If a company commits to spending billions over the next several years and can’t walk away from the contract, that obligation starts behaving a lot like debt — whether accounting rules label it that way or not.

That’s what he means by expanding the “perimeter of debt.”

Instead of looking only at how much traditional debt a company carries, Burry wants to draw a much wider circle around its obligations — including contracts, purchase commitments, leases, backstops, and other promises that could become painful if demand slows or the AI buildout gets pulled back.

And that’s why he says circular financing isn’t really the issue.

Burry’s argument asks how much money companies have already committed to spending — whether it’s officially called debt or not.

His concern is what happens if the boom reverses while all those commitments are still there.

!!! “Perimeter of debt” → How much debt-like risk exists across the AI supply chain, including obligations that don’t appear as traditional debt.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon’s next move is brewing, and it’s bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
Get the Name & Ticker — Free

Burry’s Two Historical Parallels↓

1 2005-06

Goldman Sachs held a $3 billion complex mortgage position that looked dangerous enough to threaten the system — right around when Burry made his famous housing short. Goldman managed to offload the position. Once it did, other banks, including Merrill Lynch, loaded up on similar risk in 2006 — risk that helped destroy them two years later. Burry’s point: one firm exiting doesn’t mean the risk disappeared. It just moved to whoever was willing to buy it next.

2 Enron

Burry says today’s dynamic has “shades of Enron’s effort to make wholesale power an investable class” — a reference to Enron’s attempt to turn ordinary electricity trading into a tradeable, packageable financial product, years before its collapse exposed how much hidden leverage and accounting manipulation was underneath that effort.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

The Prophet’s” #1 Retirement Stock Right Now — Free

Whitney Tilson — the man CNBC calls “The Prophet,” twice featured on 60 Minutes — is revealing the name and ticker of what he calls America’s Greatest Retirement Stock.

Completely free.

It’s already outperformed Apple, Amazon, and the S&P 500 combined…

A billionaire put 60% of his $9 billion fund into it…

And Google’s former CEO just partnered with it directly.

Right now it’s trading at a rare discount.

>>> No email required. Get the name free.<<<

So Far, The Scorecard Is Split.

On the surface, that’s an even split: two stocks moving against the bearish view, two moving with it.

But YTD performance isn’t Burry’s actual P&L.
He entered these positions at different prices, at different times, and in some cases through puts with specific strikes and expirations.

So this isn’t really a 2–2 win-loss record.

→ It’s a snapshot of something more interesting: the same AI buildout Burry is betting against is already producing very different outcomes across the stocks tied to it.

Meanwhile, Retail Has Picked A Side.

Burry’s skepticism isn’t getting much company from retail traders.

Three of the four names lean bullish among retail traders, including Palantir, where Burry has been increasing both his put exposure and direct short position.

✱ Oracle is the exception. It’s the only name where retail sentiment currently points in the same bearish direction as Burry’s trade.

So while Burry keeps adding to the bearish side of the AI buildout, retail is mostly standing on the other side.

Burry Is Buying Too…

✱ For all the attention on his shorts, Burry still has plenty of conviction on the other side of the market.

He added to Molina Healthcare $MOH ( ▲ 4.62% )  at $198, bringing the position back in line with some of the largest holdings in his portfolio. Burry said its relative weight had fallen because of other capital movements — not because his view of the company had changed.

His outlook remains long-term bullish, with one additional wrinkle: Burry said the current political season may be developing favorably for Molina, calling it a “nice surprise.”

He didn’t elaborate on exactly which policy developments he was referring to.

So while Burry is adding to shorts across the AI buildout, he’s also putting more capital behind one of his highest-conviction longs.

Bearish on the buildout. Still very willing to buy elsewhere.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

…coincidence? Maybe.

Defense tech is having a very good week.

Or… the Pentagon just put a number on the bottleneck.

Within days, a $1.37 billion raise, a $300 million funding round, and a company targeting a $2.53 billion IPO valuation all landed across different corners of the defense industry.

Normally, those would be three separate stories.

Except the Pentagon just told its biggest contractors to figure out how to build weapons faster.

Recent conflicts have put pressure on US missile inventories, while the systems used to find and track targets have become considerably faster and more sophisticated.

The technology advanced. The production lines didn’t keep pace.

Now billions are moving toward the gap between the two.

Here is the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

Phase 2 of the AI Supercycle Has Arrived

Google’s DeepMind CEO says AI will be “10X bigger than the Industrial Revolution. And maybe 10X faster.”

Best-selling financial author Alexander Green has identified three companies positioned to soar.

He was right about Apple. In 1996. Under $1 a share.

He was right about Netflix. At $1.62.

He was right about Amazon. Under $2.

He warned his readers about the dot-com crash. One month before it peaked.

He warned about the housing crisis. Nine months before Lehman Brothers collapsed.

Now Alexander Green says the biggest wealth-creation event of his 40-year career is unfolding right now.

He calls it Phase 2 of the AI Supercycle.

And he’s identified three stocks he believes could dominate the next phase.

CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT IF HE’S RIGHT

The Supply Chain.

Software solved targeting. Nobody solved the supply chain…

Reuters reported last week that the US used “virtually all” of its long-range precision missile stockpile during five months of conflict with Iran. That single sentence explains almost everything else in today’s newsletter — three separate defense-tech deals, all landing within days of each other, all chasing the same underlying problem.

Why weapons, not targeting, became the constraint?

Palantir’s Maven Smart System — the Pentagon’s primary AI operating system, per Reuters — analyzes satellite, drone, and radar data to identify and validate strike targets.

It became so effective during the Iran conflict that it supported thousands of strikes.

Reuters defense commentator Peter Apps put the shift plainly, speaking to LBC: ✱ AI now generates more targets than there are weapons to service them, meaning the human role has shifted to “controlling the burn rate.”

Missiles remain physical products with complex supply chains that cannot scale at software speed — and that mismatch is now the defining constraint of modern warfare.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Do this before November 3

For the last 78 years, one thing has predicted a bull market…

With 100% accuracy…

The midterm election.

It doesn’t matter which party wins.

Or what the economic conditions are.

In war and in peace…

The 12 months following a midterm election are the most profitable.

This midterm will be no different.

And I just caught Wall Street sneaking money into two stocks — ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
 

A 21-day Deadline & 3 Answers↓

The Pentagon’s response gives us a sense of just how large the production gap has become.

The Associated Press reported that Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg gave major defense contractors 21 days to submit plans for substantially increasing weapons production. The US has also signed more than $3 billion in agreements with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman tied to expanding capacity.

And the production targets aren’t small.

This push is also showing up in private markets — and now the public ones too.

Three companies, three different layers of the defense stack: build faster, intercept cheaper, see more.

And all three attracted major capital within days of each other.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

Trump: ‘You can’t fight it.’

President Trump just went on record: the AI data center buildout sweeping America is unstoppable. s Communities across the country have been pushing back – over rising electricity bills, strained water supplies, and projects landing next door to homes and schools. But the AI buildout isn’t slowing down. In fact, Elon Musk’s master plan – hidden inside SpaceX – avoids every obstacle. Analyst Rob Spivey says folks who understand what Elon is building – and why – could make a lot of money in the right stocks.

Get the name and ticker of the No. 1 stock at the center of it FREE (not Tesla or SpaceX).

Hadrian — Someone Has To Build It.

→ Hadrian is going after perhaps the least glamorous — and increasingly important — layer of defense tech: making the parts.

It builds the automated manufacturing facilities that mass-produce parts for the vehicles the military already relies on — submarines, and now, per its expansion, additional facilities including a planned site in Mesa, Arizona.

Hadrian’s latest $1.37 billion raise brought its valuation to $7.87 billion and total funding to roughly $2 billion.

The investor list stretches well beyond defense-focused venture capital, with participation from major asset managers, venture firms, and wealth platforms.

The list:
WCM Investment Management, Washington Harbour Partners, Valor Equity Partners, 137 Ventures, and Baillie Gifford led, with participation from 1789 Capital, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Apollo and T. Rowe Price funds, CapitalG, Andreessen Horowitz, Founders Fund, Lux Capital, and Altimeter.

That’s traditional asset management, venture capital, and wealth platforms all in the same round is a signal that Hadrian’s thesis is landing broadly, not just with defense-focused specialists.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

The Prophet’s” #1 Retirement Stock Right Now — Free

Whitney Tilson — the man CNBC calls “The Prophet,” twice featured on 60 Minutes — is revealing the name and ticker of what he calls America’s Greatest Retirement Stock.

Completely free.

It’s already outperformed Apple, Amazon, and the S&P 500 combined…

A billionaire put 60% of his $9 billion fund into it…

And Google’s former CEO just partnered with it directly.

Right now it’s trading at a rare discount.

>>> No email required. Get the name free.<<<

Cambridge Aerospace — Someone Has To Stop It.

Cambridge Aerospace is attacking a different part of the problem: the cost of interception.

The British startup is developing lower-cost systems designed to intercept drones and cruise missiles, alongside a rocket-powered ballistic-missile interceptor and radar technology. It already holds several UK government contracts.

The economics are easy to understand. Low-cost drones can be deployed at scale; the systems used to stop them can be considerably more expensive.

Cambridge wants to narrow that gap.

→ The catch? Existing interceptors are expensive partly because they’ve been proven to work. Cambridge’s cheaper approach still has to prove it can do the same.

Lyntris — The IPO.

Lyntris brings this defense-tech wave to the public market.

The battlefield sensor and software company is seeking up to $528 million, offering 24 million shares at $19–$22. It was formed by Trive Capital through the combination of Accelint and Vitesse and has expanded through 12 acquisitions since 2018.

The number investors will probably notice first: $923.9 million in backlog, more than double where it stood a year ago.

The financials are more mixed. Revenue for the first half climbed to $241 million, from $179.1 million a year earlier, while the net loss widened to $13 million from $9.7 million.

✱  And Lyntris isn’t arriving alone. Five other defense companies have debuted in New York since April, according to Reuters.

Private capital found defense early. Now the IPO market is testing the appetite.

In short…

✱ AI made defense smarter. Now the challenge is making enough of it.

Hadrian and Cambridge Aerospace are raising billions to expand manufacturing and cheaper interceptors, while Lyntris is heading toward the public markets with a growing defense backlog.

Different companies, same bet: the next defense-tech race may be won on the factory floor.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

…coincidence? Maybe.

Defense tech is having a very good week.

Or… the Pentagon just put a number on the bottleneck.

Within days, a $1.37 billion raise, a $300 million funding round, and a company targeting a $2.53 billion IPO valuation all landed across different corners of the defense industry.

Normally, those would be three separate stories.

Except the Pentagon just told its biggest contractors to figure out how to build weapons faster.

Recent conflicts have put pressure on US missile inventories, while the systems used to find and track targets have become considerably faster and more sophisticated.

The technology advanced. The production lines didn’t keep pace.

Now billions are moving toward the gap between the two.

Here is the story.⇩

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The Supply Chain.

Software solved targeting. Nobody solved the supply chain…

Reuters reported last week that the US used “virtually all” of its long-range precision missile stockpile during five months of conflict with Iran. That single sentence explains almost everything else in today’s newsletter — three separate defense-tech deals, all landing within days of each other, all chasing the same underlying problem.

Why weapons, not targeting, became the constraint?

Palantir’s Maven Smart System — the Pentagon’s primary AI operating system, per Reuters — analyzes satellite, drone, and radar data to identify and validate strike targets.

It became so effective during the Iran conflict that it supported thousands of strikes.

Reuters defense commentator Peter Apps put the shift plainly, speaking to LBC: ✱ AI now generates more targets than there are weapons to service them, meaning the human role has shifted to “controlling the burn rate.”

Missiles remain physical products with complex supply chains that cannot scale at software speed — and that mismatch is now the defining constraint of modern warfare.

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The Pentagon’s response gives us a sense of just how large the production gap has become.

The Associated Press reported that Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg gave major defense contractors 21 days to submit plans for substantially increasing weapons production. The US has also signed more than $3 billion in agreements with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman tied to expanding capacity.

And the production targets aren’t small.

This push is also showing up in private markets — and now the public ones too.

Three companies, three different layers of the defense stack: build faster, intercept cheaper, see more.

And all three attracted major capital within days of each other.

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Hadrian — Someone Has To Build It.

→ Hadrian is going after perhaps the least glamorous — and increasingly important — layer of defense tech: making the parts.

It builds the automated manufacturing facilities that mass-produce parts for the vehicles the military already relies on — submarines, and now, per its expansion, additional facilities including a planned site in Mesa, Arizona.

Hadrian’s latest $1.37 billion raise brought its valuation to $7.87 billion and total funding to roughly $2 billion.

The investor list stretches well beyond defense-focused venture capital, with participation from major asset managers, venture firms, and wealth platforms.

The list:
WCM Investment Management, Washington Harbour Partners, Valor Equity Partners, 137 Ventures, and Baillie Gifford led, with participation from 1789 Capital, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Apollo and T. Rowe Price funds, CapitalG, Andreessen Horowitz, Founders Fund, Lux Capital, and Altimeter.

That’s traditional asset management, venture capital, and wealth platforms all in the same round is a signal that Hadrian’s thesis is landing broadly, not just with defense-focused specialists.

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Cambridge Aerospace — Someone Has To Stop It.

Cambridge Aerospace is attacking a different part of the problem: the cost of interception.

The British startup is developing lower-cost systems designed to intercept drones and cruise missiles, alongside a rocket-powered ballistic-missile interceptor and radar technology. It already holds several UK government contracts.

The economics are easy to understand. Low-cost drones can be deployed at scale; the systems used to stop them can be considerably more expensive.

Cambridge wants to narrow that gap.

→ The catch? Existing interceptors are expensive partly because they’ve been proven to work. Cambridge’s cheaper approach still has to prove it can do the same.

Lyntris — The IPO.

Lyntris brings this defense-tech wave to the public market.

The battlefield sensor and software company is seeking up to $528 million, offering 24 million shares at $19–$22. It was formed by Trive Capital through the combination of Accelint and Vitesse and has expanded through 12 acquisitions since 2018.

The number investors will probably notice first: $923.9 million in backlog, more than double where it stood a year ago.

The financials are more mixed. Revenue for the first half climbed to $241 million, from $179.1 million a year earlier, while the net loss widened to $13 million from $9.7 million.

✱  And Lyntris isn’t arriving alone. Five other defense companies have debuted in New York since April, according to Reuters.

Private capital found defense early. Now the IPO market is testing the appetite.

In short…

✱ AI made defense smarter. Now the challenge is making enough of it.

Hadrian and Cambridge Aerospace are raising billions to expand manufacturing and cheaper interceptors, while Lyntris is heading toward the public markets with a growing defense backlog.

Different companies, same bet: the next defense-tech race may be won on the factory floor.

Lesson Of The Day:

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