$80B raise. 3% float. 30% retail…
Last August, Figma went public. The design software company priced its IPO at $33 a share.
By the time the market opened, it was trading at $95.
A 188% gain before most people had finished their morning coffee.
Retail investors – the regular people – watched every dollar of that gain happen in real time.
From the sidelines.
Because that’s how IPOs work.
The institutions get in at $33.
You get in at $95.
If you’re lucky enough to get in at all.
It’s just the system. The banks control the allocation.
Retail gets whatever’s left — which is typically between 5% and 10% of total shares.
However…
SpaceX just announced it’s considering giving retail investors 30% of its IPO.
Three times the normal allocation. For what could be the biggest public offering in human history.
The door that’s been closed for decades just cracked open.
Here’s the story ⇩
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The Biggest IPO Ever. By A Lot.
SpaceX is expected to raise between $40 billion and $80 billion in its IPO.
For context:
The largest IPO in history was Saudi Aramco in 2019, which raised $25.6 billion.
SpaceX at the low end doubles that. At the high end, it nearly triples it.
The company is expected to file confidentially with regulators in the coming days.
A public filing typically follows a couple of months later.
The target date: mid-June.
Which happens to be right before Elon Musk’s 55th birthday.
(He is not subtle.)
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The Playbook Nobody Has Tried Before
SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen carried a message to Wall Street this week that made bankers uncomfortable.
Musk wants ordinary investors to own as much as 30% of the IPO.
In public listings, companies typically allocate no more than 5% to 10% to retail investors.
SpaceX is considering three to six times that.
But the retail allocation is just one piece of a much stranger playbook.
Instead of executives flying around the world on a traditional roadshow – pitching fund managers in conference rooms in New York, London, and Hong Kong – Musk wants investors to come to SpaceX.
→ Visit the manufacturing facilities.
→ Watch a rocket launch.
→ Leave wanting to put in big orders.
Also under consideration: preferential treatment for existing investors in Musk’s other companies – Tesla shareholders and others who’ve already bet on his vision – and unusually long lockup periods that limit how quickly early investors can sell.
This is not how IPOs are done.
It is very much how Musk does things.
Beyond the Spectacle…
For most of financial history, the best investment opportunities were structurally inaccessible to regular people.
Companies stayed private longer.
The gains compounded inside venture capital funds and sovereign wealth portfolios.
With young companies staying private longer, the number of public companies listed on the NYSE shrank from 7,322 in 1996 to roughly half that number by the late 2010s.
The companies that went public were often already past their highest-growth years.
Retail investors got the table scraps of the innovation economy.
SpaceX represents something different.
A company at the absolute frontier of human ambition — rockets, satellites, Starlink, Mars — going public while still in its most explosive growth phase.
And its founder is explicitly choosing to let regular people in at the ground floor.
Not as an afterthought.
As a stated priority.
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The Catch (There’s Always One)
A few things worth keeping in your back pocket.
! The 30% is not confirmed.
SpaceX’s CFO floated it to Wall Street. The plan is not final. Investment banks are pushing back — they want to reserve allocation for their institutional clients, who represent billions in recurring business.
✓ The valuation is extraordinary.
SpaceX is expected to trade at roughly 110 times its 2025 revenue — higher than almost any comparable public company. That’s not a red flag by itself. But it means the stock is pricing in enormous future growth. If that growth is even slightly delayed, early buyers feel it.
! The float is historically thin.
SpaceX is expected to sell only 3% to 4% of its equity in the IPO. That’s the thinnest large-cap float in modern history. A thin float means any sentiment shift — good or bad — hits a narrow order book. PitchBook analysts expect 20% to 30% price swings on news that would move a normal stock by 5%.
! In other words: this is not a trade for the faint-hearted.
The Figma Problem, Solved?
Here’s what’s really being tested with the SpaceX IPO.
For years, the argument for keeping retail out of IPOs was that institutions provide stability — they don’t flip shares on day one, they hold positions, they anchor the price.
Retail, the argument went, is too volatile. Too emotional. Too short-term.
SpaceX’s bet is the opposite.
That retail investors — the ones who watched every Starship launch, who use Starlink in their homes, who actually believe in the mission — will be the most patient holders of all.
That belief, more than any financial model, is what’s actually being tested in June.
If it works, every major IPO after this will have to answer the same question:
Why aren’t you doing what SpaceX did?
!!! Please read this: SpaceX being an incredible company does not make it a safe investment. It has never traded publicly, carries an aggressive valuation, comes with no guarantee of returns and early volatility could be extreme.
Treat this as high-risk capital only.
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