Dead Simple…

Warren Buffett has spent more than six decades making stock picking look look like a walk in the park.

But when it comes to what happens after he’s gone, the Oracle of Omaha has left behind a very different playbook.

→ No hunt for the next Coca-Cola.
→ No Berkshire-style treasure hunting.

In fact, his instructions are so simple they almost sound strange coming from Buffett.

And buried inside them is perhaps his most revealing investing lesson yet.

Here’s the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Sam Altman Back New Potential $367 Trillion “Medical AI”

The three most successful tech billionaires in history are now backing a new use for AI that could dwarf anything we’ve seen before. And Nature says this tech is so revolutionary, it could add $367 trillion to the economy – the equivalent of $1 million per American.

Click here to see the stocks that could soar as “Medical AI” goes online nationwide.

Very Un-Buffetty…

Buffett laid out the plan in his 2013 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders:

✱ 90% → Low-cost S&P 500 index fund › Broad exposure to America’s largest companies.

✱ 10% → Short-term U.S. government bonds › A smaller cushion of stability and liquidity.

And that’s basically it.

Buffett wrote: “Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.”

→ No Berkshire stock.
→ No handpicked portfolio of wonderful businesses.
→ No instructions for analyzing balance sheets, hunting for undervalued companies or trying to find the next great investment.

Which is what makes the advice so interesting.

The man who spent his career making investing look extraordinarily sophisticated left his family a portfolio that takes about five minutes to understand.

Other Headlines sponsored by MarketWise*

• Is Trump Rewriting the Declaration of Independence? › Click here to see how it could affect you.

• Major Buy Alert Issued for August 31st → Here are the stocks you need to buy for the chance to profit.

• World’s Largest Investors Are Moving Their Money (Not Into AI) › Click to watch.

So, Why Not Pick Stocks↓

Buffett has never been shy about the difficulty of doing what made him famous.

At Berkshire’s 2021 annual meeting, he put it plainly: “I do not think the average person can pick stocks.”

Buffett had the time, temperament, and skill to study businesses at a level most investors never will. An index fund skips that entire exercise. You don’t need to find tomorrow’s winners — you own a piece of the market and let the winners eventually reveal themselves.

There’s an important distinction here. Buffett isn’t saying stock picking can’t work. His career makes that argument pretty difficult.

He’s saying most people probably shouldn’t expect to replicate it.

You don’t need to invest like Buffett to follow Buffett’s advice.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

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How’s That Advice Holding Up?

→ Pretty well.

Here’s the S&P 500, recent track record:

And those gains didn’t come with smooth sailing.

Markets had plenty to digest, including the war in Iran and its ripple effects across oil, inflation, and Treasury yields. Yet the S&P 500 still delivered a strong year.

That gets to the heart of Buffett’s advice: You don’t need to predict every storm to make it through one.

Own the market, stay invested, and let time do more of the work.

The Buffett Fine Print ⚠️

There’s one important catch: Buffett designed the 90/10 portfolio for his wife, not for everyone.

The money would arrive as a large inheritance, with a long investing horizon and very different needs from someone saving a little from every paycheck, approaching retirement, or relying on their portfolio for income.

So the lesson isn’t necessarily “put 90% of your money in the S&P 500.” 
It’s the thinking behind it: keep costs low, diversify broadly, and don’t make investing more complicated than it needs to be.

The 90/10 split is Buffett’s prescription for one portfolio. The simplicity behind it is the part anyone can borrow.

Lesson Of The Day:

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15% in a month…

Gold is back.

December futures climbed above $4,700 this morning, reaching their highest level since May.

And this hasn’t exactly been a slow crawl.

→ +6.3% in one week
→ +14.9% in one month
→ +39.5% in one year

That’s a pretty good month for something people usually buy when they’re nervous.

But the timing is the interesting part.

Here’s the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

#1 Stock to Own as Trump Launches Historic Mission Backing “Medical AI”

In the biggest federal push since the Apollo program that landed on the Moon… Trump is now pouring the full support of the federal government into a new type of AI that could soon be worth 500 times more than ChatGPT. It works 10,000 times faster than human PhDs… and Elon Musk calls the underlying tech “the most disruptive force in history.” Click here to learn about the #1 stock to own as this new AI goes live.

An Unlikely Helper…

Part of gold’s latest move actually started last Wednesday.

And oddly enough, Treasury bonds helped.

Gold is often where investors turn when they’re worried about inflation, currencies, geopolitical risk or the financial system itself.

Treasuries play a different role. They’re backed by the U.S. government and, importantly, they pay interest.

That interest rate — the yield — affects how investors divide money between the two.

✱ When Treasury yields climb, bonds become more attractive because investors can lock in a higher return.

✱ When yields fall, that incentive gets smaller.

And last Wednesday, yields fell fast.

Treasury surprised the market by doubling certain long-term bond buybacks. Bond prices jumped, which pushed yields lower — with the 30-year dropping roughly 9–10 basis points shortly after the announcement. Gold surged more than 3% the same day.

The simple version:

Treasury yields ↑ → bonds offer more income → tougher competition for gold

Treasury yields ↓ → bonds offer less income → one headwind for gold gets smaller

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

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The Dollar Gave It Another Push↓

And here is the other layer…

The announcement also pushed the U.S. dollar lower.

Gold is priced in dollars globally, so when the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for buyers holding euros, yen, pounds and other currencies.

Cheaper gold can mean more global demand.

And lately, the dollar has been falling alongside Treasury yields.

That left gold with a pretty friendly setup:

Yields ↓ → less competition from bonds

Dollar ↓ → cheaper gold overseas

Add geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns already pushing investors toward safe havens…

…and suddenly gold above $4,700 doesn’t look quite so surprising.

Other Headlines sponsored by MarketWise*

• Is Trump Rewriting the Declaration of Independence? › Click here to see how it could affect you.

• Major Buy Alert Issued for August 31st → Here are the stocks you need to buy for the chance to profit.

• World’s Largest Investors Are Moving Their Money (Not Into AI) › Click to watch.

$6.4 Billion Followed The Rally.

Gold’s rally wasn’t happening in isolation.

While futures were pushing back above $4,700, investors were quietly adding billions of dollars of exposure through gold-backed ETFs.

→ Last week alone, those funds attracted roughly $6.4 billion, equivalent to about 46.7 tonnes of gold — their strongest weekly inflow in around 10 months.

The timing is what makes that notable.

These weren’t bargain hunters stepping into gold after a selloff. They were buying after a 6.3% weekly gain and nearly 15% over the past month.

That gives the rally a different complexion.

Price momentum can feed on itself for a while. But ETF flows show capital being deliberately allocated to gold even as the cost of getting in keeps rising.

And $6.4 billion in one week is a fairly expensive way of saying investors aren’t done yet.

And Gold Still Isn’t Back.

image: investing

After a nearly 15% run in a month, you’d think gold would be knocking on record-high territory.

Not quite.

Gold is still roughly 15% below the highs it reached earlier this year, around $5,300 an ounce.

So while the latest move looks impressive, there’s another way to read it:

Gold isn’t breaking out. It’s climbing back.

There are some encouraging signs.

Gold has reclaimed its 200-day moving average, real yields have stopped climbing, the dollar has softened, and central banks continue to add to their holdings.

That was enough for Truist to recently upgrade its view on gold back to neutral.

$4,700 isn’t the finish line.

Lesson Of The Day:

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15% in a month…

Gold is back.

December futures climbed above $4,700 this morning, reaching their highest level since May.

And this hasn’t exactly been a slow crawl.

→ +6.3% in one week
→ +14.9% in one month
→ +39.5% in one year

That’s a pretty good month for something people usually buy when they’re nervous.

But the timing is the interesting part.

Here’s the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

#1 Stock to Own as Trump Launches Historic Mission Backing “Medical AI”

In the biggest federal push since the Apollo program that landed on the Moon… Trump is now pouring the full support of the federal government into a new type of AI that could soon be worth 500 times more than ChatGPT. It works 10,000 times faster than human PhDs… and Elon Musk calls the underlying tech “the most disruptive force in history.” Click here to learn about the #1 stock to own as this new AI goes live.

An Unlikely Helper…

Part of gold’s latest move actually started last Wednesday.

And oddly enough, Treasury bonds helped.

Gold is often where investors turn when they’re worried about inflation, currencies, geopolitical risk or the financial system itself.

Treasuries play a different role. They’re backed by the U.S. government and, importantly, they pay interest.

That interest rate — the yield — affects how investors divide money between the two.

✱ When Treasury yields climb, bonds become more attractive because investors can lock in a higher return.

✱ When yields fall, that incentive gets smaller.

And last Wednesday, yields fell fast.

Treasury surprised the market by doubling certain long-term bond buybacks. Bond prices jumped, which pushed yields lower — with the 30-year dropping roughly 9–10 basis points shortly after the announcement. Gold surged more than 3% the same day.

The simple version:

Treasury yields ↑ → bonds offer more income → tougher competition for gold

Treasury yields ↓ → bonds offer less income → one headwind for gold gets smaller

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon’s next move is brewing, and it’s bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
Get the Name & Ticker — Free

The Dollar Gave It Another Push↓

And here is the other layer…

The announcement also pushed the U.S. dollar lower.

Gold is priced in dollars globally, so when the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for buyers holding euros, yen, pounds and other currencies.

Cheaper gold can mean more global demand.

And lately, the dollar has been falling alongside Treasury yields.

That left gold with a pretty friendly setup:

Yields ↓ → less competition from bonds

Dollar ↓ → cheaper gold overseas

Add geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns already pushing investors toward safe havens…

…and suddenly gold above $4,700 doesn’t look quite so surprising.

Other Headlines sponsored by MarketWise*

• Is Trump Rewriting the Declaration of Independence? › Click here to see how it could affect you.

• Major Buy Alert Issued for August 31st → Here are the stocks you need to buy for the chance to profit.

• World’s Largest Investors Are Moving Their Money (Not Into AI) › Click to watch.

$6.4 Billion Followed The Rally.

Gold’s rally wasn’t happening in isolation.

While futures were pushing back above $4,700, investors were quietly adding billions of dollars of exposure through gold-backed ETFs.

→ Last week alone, those funds attracted roughly $6.4 billion, equivalent to about 46.7 tonnes of gold — their strongest weekly inflow in around 10 months.

The timing is what makes that notable.

These weren’t bargain hunters stepping into gold after a selloff. They were buying after a 6.3% weekly gain and nearly 15% over the past month.

That gives the rally a different complexion.

Price momentum can feed on itself for a while. But ETF flows show capital being deliberately allocated to gold even as the cost of getting in keeps rising.

And $6.4 billion in one week is a fairly expensive way of saying investors aren’t done yet.

And Gold Still Isn’t Back.

image: investing

After a nearly 15% run in a month, you’d think gold would be knocking on record-high territory.

Not quite.

Gold is still roughly 15% below the highs it reached earlier this year, around $5,300 an ounce.

So while the latest move looks impressive, there’s another way to read it:

Gold isn’t breaking out. It’s climbing back.

There are some encouraging signs.

Gold has reclaimed its 200-day moving average, real yields have stopped climbing, the dollar has softened, and central banks continue to add to their holdings.

That was enough for Truist to recently upgrade its view on gold back to neutral.

$4,700 isn’t the finish line.

Lesson Of The Day:

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Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

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Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

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$1 trillion by 2030…

That’s Elon Musk’s new target for SpaceX.

For context, analysts expect SpaceX to generate roughly $44.6 billion this year.

So getting to Musk’s number would require revenue to grow roughly 22-fold in four years.

Ambitious? Very.

But then we looked at who else is approaching $1 trillion.

Amazon generated $716.9 billion last year. Walmart did $713.2 billion.

Meaning both are already more than 70% of the way there.

So we have SpaceX trying to pull off one of the fastest revenue expansions in corporate history…

…and Amazon potentially reaching the same milestone by slowing down.

Here’s the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

#1 Stock to Own as Trump Launches Historic Mission Backing “Medical AI”

In the biggest federal push since the Apollo program that landed on the Moon… Trump is now pouring the full support of the federal government into a new type of AI that could soon be worth 500 times more than ChatGPT. It works 10,000 times faster than human PhDs… and Elon Musk calls the underlying tech “the most disruptive force in history.” Click here to learn about the #1 stock to own as this new AI goes live.

So, Who’s Actually Closest?

Put them next to each other and Musk’s target starts looking very different.

Amazon and Walmart have already generated more than 70% of $1 trillion in annual revenue. SpaceX is starting from less than 5% based on its 2026 estimate.

And Amazon’s math gets particularly interesting.

It only needs roughly 7% annual growth to cross $1 trillion by 2030. So far this year, it’s growing at roughly 18%.

So the destination is the same.

The interesting part is how fast each company has to travel to get there.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon’s next move is brewing, and it’s bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
Get the Name & Ticker — Free

Quite A Trip…↓

1 Mid-June IPO – $135

2 Post-IPO peak – $225 ↑ 67% from IPO

3 August low – $104 ↓ 54% from the peak

4 Now – $143 – Just 6% above its IPO price

The stock has essentially made a $121 round trip from peak to trough before recovering back above where it started.

For all the excitement around SpaceX’s $1 trillion ambitions, the market has spent its first few months trying to decide what the company is worth today.

Amazon Only Needs 7%

Amazon generated $382.1 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, growing 18% — more than twice the annual pace it needs to reach $1 trillion by 2030.

So Amazon doesn’t need to maintain 18% growth.

✱ It can slow down considerably and still get there.

And there’s still room to grow. E-commerce produces most of Amazon’s revenue, while AWS produces an outsized share of its profits. Jassy estimates roughly 85% of global IT spending still happens on-premises, leaving much of the potential cloud market outside AWS today.

Add Amazon’s push into its own AI chips and compute infrastructure, and the $1 trillion path starts looking surprisingly ordinary.

→ SpaceX needs acceleration. Amazon has room to hit the brakes.

The Case of Walmart.

Walmart’s path is less about speed.

→ Revenue grew 4.7% in FY2026 — solid, but below the roughly 7% annual pace needed to cross $1 trillion by FY2031.

But Walmart has something SpaceX can’t manufacture quickly: scale that already exists.

Roughly 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart. It’s the second-largest U.S. e-commerce player behind Amazon, while its online and advertising businesses are adding new sources of growth on top of an enormous retail base.

→ And then there’s the dividend: Walmart has increased it for 50+ consecutive years.

This isn’t the moonshot route to $1 trillion.

It’s the keep-opening-the-doors-every-morning route.

Fresh Number.

Walmart reported Q2 this week, and the revenue number landed surprisingly close to the pace we’ve been talking about.

→ $187.94B — Q2 revenue
→ +6% — Year-over-year growth
→ $0.81 — Adjusted EPS

And management raised its full-year outlook.

Sounds pretty good.

The stock fell roughly 9% anyway.

The issue wasn’t really revenue. Part of Walmart’s margin improvement came from a one-time tariff refund, and management reinvested that benefit into more than 11,000 price rollbacks.

→ That helped customers, but also contributed to softer Q3 profit guidance.

For our $1 trillion race, though, the 6% revenue growth is the number to watch.

That’s still below the roughly 7% annual pace needed for the faster $1 trillion timeline, but close enough to keep Walmart moving toward the milestone.

So Walmart answered one question this week:

Can a $700+ billion retailer still grow around 6%? Yes.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

$1 trillion by 2030…

That’s Elon Musk’s new target for SpaceX.

For context, analysts expect SpaceX to generate roughly $44.6 billion this year.

So getting to Musk’s number would require revenue to grow roughly 22-fold in four years.

Ambitious? Very.

But then we looked at who else is approaching $1 trillion.

Amazon generated $716.9 billion last year. Walmart did $713.2 billion.

Meaning both are already more than 70% of the way there.

So we have SpaceX trying to pull off one of the fastest revenue expansions in corporate history…

…and Amazon potentially reaching the same milestone by slowing down.

Here’s the story.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

#1 Stock to Own as Trump Launches Historic Mission Backing “Medical AI”

In the biggest federal push since the Apollo program that landed on the Moon… Trump is now pouring the full support of the federal government into a new type of AI that could soon be worth 500 times more than ChatGPT. It works 10,000 times faster than human PhDs… and Elon Musk calls the underlying tech “the most disruptive force in history.” Click here to learn about the #1 stock to own as this new AI goes live.

So, Who’s Actually Closest?

Put them next to each other and Musk’s target starts looking very different.

Amazon and Walmart have already generated more than 70% of $1 trillion in annual revenue. SpaceX is starting from less than 5% based on its 2026 estimate.

And Amazon’s math gets particularly interesting.

It only needs roughly 7% annual growth to cross $1 trillion by 2030. So far this year, it’s growing at roughly 18%.

So the destination is the same.

The interesting part is how fast each company has to travel to get there.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon’s next move is brewing, and it’s bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
Get the Name & Ticker — Free

Quite A Trip…↓

1 Mid-June IPO – $135

2 Post-IPO peak – $225 ↑ 67% from IPO

3 August low – $104 ↓ 54% from the peak

4 Now – $143 – Just 6% above its IPO price

The stock has essentially made a $121 round trip from peak to trough before recovering back above where it started.

For all the excitement around SpaceX’s $1 trillion ambitions, the market has spent its first few months trying to decide what the company is worth today.

Amazon Only Needs 7%

Amazon generated $382.1 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, growing 18% — more than twice the annual pace it needs to reach $1 trillion by 2030.

So Amazon doesn’t need to maintain 18% growth.

✱ It can slow down considerably and still get there.

And there’s still room to grow. E-commerce produces most of Amazon’s revenue, while AWS produces an outsized share of its profits. Jassy estimates roughly 85% of global IT spending still happens on-premises, leaving much of the potential cloud market outside AWS today.

Add Amazon’s push into its own AI chips and compute infrastructure, and the $1 trillion path starts looking surprisingly ordinary.

→ SpaceX needs acceleration. Amazon has room to hit the brakes.

The Case of Walmart.

Walmart’s path is less about speed.

→ Revenue grew 4.7% in FY2026 — solid, but below the roughly 7% annual pace needed to cross $1 trillion by FY2031.

But Walmart has something SpaceX can’t manufacture quickly: scale that already exists.

Roughly 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart. It’s the second-largest U.S. e-commerce player behind Amazon, while its online and advertising businesses are adding new sources of growth on top of an enormous retail base.

→ And then there’s the dividend: Walmart has increased it for 50+ consecutive years.

This isn’t the moonshot route to $1 trillion.

It’s the keep-opening-the-doors-every-morning route.

Fresh Number.

Walmart reported Q2 this week, and the revenue number landed surprisingly close to the pace we’ve been talking about.

→ $187.94B — Q2 revenue
→ +6% — Year-over-year growth
→ $0.81 — Adjusted EPS

And management raised its full-year outlook.

Sounds pretty good.

The stock fell roughly 9% anyway.

The issue wasn’t really revenue. Part of Walmart’s margin improvement came from a one-time tariff refund, and management reinvested that benefit into more than 11,000 price rollbacks.

→ That helped customers, but also contributed to softer Q3 profit guidance.

For our $1 trillion race, though, the 6% revenue growth is the number to watch.

That’s still below the roughly 7% annual pace needed for the faster $1 trillion timeline, but close enough to keep Walmart moving toward the milestone.

So Walmart answered one question this week:

Can a $700+ billion retailer still grow around 6%? Yes.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

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The Speed Of Debt…

The national debt crossed $40 trillion this week. But the size of the number isn’t nearly as striking as the speed we’re adding to it.

Forty trillion is hard to picture. Six weeks isn’t.

From 1776 to 1976 — through the Civil War, two World Wars and the Great Depression — the United States accumulated roughly $550 billion in federal debt.

That took 200 years.

This summer, America added roughly the same amount in about six weeks.

And this week, the total pushed past $40 trillion.

The chart makes the acceleration hard to miss. But the more interesting story may be what happened next: with long-term borrowing costs climbing to levels not seen in nearly two decades, the Treasury stepped in Wednesday and doubled the size of its long-bond buybacks.

Here’s how the debt pile got this big and why it’s suddenly getting more expensive to carry… ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

#1 Stock to Own as Trump Launches Historic Mission Backing “Medical AI”

In the biggest federal push since the Apollo program that landed on the Moon… Trump is now pouring the full support of the federal government into a new type of AI that could soon be worth 500 times more than ChatGPT. It works 10,000 times faster than human PhDs… and Elon Musk calls the underlying tech “the most disruptive force in history.” Click here to learn about the #1 stock to own as this new AI goes live.

Six Weeks, Day By Day?

A quick note on the numbers: $550 billion and roughly $600 billion refer to slightly different endpoints. The debt increase crossed $550 billion around the six-week mark; extending the calculation through Aug. 17 brings the increase to $597.35 billion — effectively $600 billion.

Same trend. A few extra days. Another $47 billion.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

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Get the Name & Ticker — Free

What’s Driving the Pace?↓

✱ Revenue is genuinely growing — 65% is not a small number.

However… spending is growing faster, at nearly 96%, which is the entire mechanical explanation for why total debt roughly doubled from $19 trillion to $39 trillion over the period Bilello’s analysis covers.

This isn’t a revenue collapse story. It’s a spending-outpacing-everything story.

For fiscal 2026, the gap looks something like this:

→ $1.33 spent for every $1.00 collected

That works out to roughly $5.6 trillion coming in against $7.4–$7.5 trillion going out.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Forget Mag7 – this is where smart money is flowing

A new type of AI called “Accelerated AI” is about to take the world by storm…

And stocks connected to it are already breaking out: 133%… 210%… and even 320% or more just in the last few months.

But it’s just getting started…

If you want to learn more about “Accelerated AI” – and get name and ticker of the #1 pick to play this opportunity…

Click here for more details. (No purchase necessary.)
 

📎 This Connects To Yesterday’s Treasury Story

Yesterday, Treasury doubled its long-dated bond buybacks after the 30-year yield climbed to a 19-year high.

By Aug. 18, the 10-year yield was at 4.71% and the 30-year at 5.28% — right around the levels that prompted Treasury to step in.

The move wasn’t really about crossing $40 trillion.
→ It was about what comes with it: more borrowing, more bonds to sell, and investors demanding more to hold them.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

42 Straight Sells. Zero Buys. So Where Is the AI Money Going?

Nvidia insiders sold $1.8 billion in stock in a single year, according to the report.

One man isn’t abandoning AI he’s looking beyond the infrastructure trade to a mystery cybersecurity company already used by 70% of the Fortune 100.

Click here to learn more

A Few Stats…

Big numbers get easier to understand when you divide them by people.

→ $116,480 Debt per American — every man, woman and child
→ $295,494 — Debt per U.S. household
→ ~$280,000+ — Debt per taxpayer — spread across roughly 140 million filers
→ ~$466,000 — The equivalent for a family of four

And then there’s the speed.

Over the past year, the national debt grew by an average of roughly:

$91,549 per second
$5.49 million per minute
$329.58 million per hour
$7.91 billion per day

For perspective, the per-person share was roughly $40,900 in 2010. Today, it’s above $116,000 — nearly tripling in 16 years.

Interests > Defense Spending

BofA Projections:

And This Is Where It Gets Personal
→ Higher government borrowing can affect the rates you pay.

In simple terms: when the government needs to borrow more, it has to sell more Treasury bonds. To attract enough buyers, those bonds may need to offer higher yields.

Those yields influence borrowing costs across the economy, so the effects can eventually reach mortgages, car loans, business loans and other credit.

Higher yields also push down the value of existing bonds — one reason the broader bond market is already down roughly 2.5% in 2026.

The odometer is still running. The bigger question is what happens if the recent pace continues.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

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The Speed Of Debt…

The national debt crossed $40 trillion this week. But the size of the number isn’t nearly as striking as the speed we’re adding to it.

Forty trillion is hard to picture. Six weeks isn’t.

From 1776 to 1976 — through the Civil War, two World Wars and the Great Depression — the United States accumulated roughly $550 billion in federal debt.

That took 200 years.

This summer, America added roughly the same amount in about six weeks.

And this week, the total pushed past $40 trillion.

The chart makes the acceleration hard to miss. But the more interesting story may be what happened next: with long-term borrowing costs climbing to levels not seen in nearly two decades, the Treasury stepped in Wednesday and doubled the size of its long-bond buybacks.

Here’s how the debt pile got this big and why it’s suddenly getting more expensive to carry… ⇩

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Six Weeks, Day By Day?

A quick note on the numbers: $550 billion and roughly $600 billion refer to slightly different endpoints. The debt increase crossed $550 billion around the six-week mark; extending the calculation through Aug. 17 brings the increase to $597.35 billion — effectively $600 billion.

Same trend. A few extra days. Another $47 billion.

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What’s Driving the Pace?↓

✱ Revenue is genuinely growing — 65% is not a small number.

However… spending is growing faster, at nearly 96%, which is the entire mechanical explanation for why total debt roughly doubled from $19 trillion to $39 trillion over the period Bilello’s analysis covers.

This isn’t a revenue collapse story. It’s a spending-outpacing-everything story.

For fiscal 2026, the gap looks something like this:

→ $1.33 spent for every $1.00 collected

That works out to roughly $5.6 trillion coming in against $7.4–$7.5 trillion going out.

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📎 This Connects To Yesterday’s Treasury Story

Yesterday, Treasury doubled its long-dated bond buybacks after the 30-year yield climbed to a 19-year high.

By Aug. 18, the 10-year yield was at 4.71% and the 30-year at 5.28% — right around the levels that prompted Treasury to step in.

The move wasn’t really about crossing $40 trillion.
→ It was about what comes with it: more borrowing, more bonds to sell, and investors demanding more to hold them.

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42 Straight Sells. Zero Buys. So Where Is the AI Money Going?

Nvidia insiders sold $1.8 billion in stock in a single year, according to the report.

One man isn’t abandoning AI he’s looking beyond the infrastructure trade to a mystery cybersecurity company already used by 70% of the Fortune 100.

Click here to learn more

A Few Stats…

Big numbers get easier to understand when you divide them by people.

→ $116,480 Debt per American — every man, woman and child
→ $295,494 — Debt per U.S. household
→ ~$280,000+ — Debt per taxpayer — spread across roughly 140 million filers
→ ~$466,000 — The equivalent for a family of four

And then there’s the speed.

Over the past year, the national debt grew by an average of roughly:

$91,549 per second
$5.49 million per minute
$329.58 million per hour
$7.91 billion per day

For perspective, the per-person share was roughly $40,900 in 2010. Today, it’s above $116,000 — nearly tripling in 16 years.

Interests > Defense Spending

BofA Projections:

And This Is Where It Gets Personal
→ Higher government borrowing can affect the rates you pay.

In simple terms: when the government needs to borrow more, it has to sell more Treasury bonds. To attract enough buyers, those bonds may need to offer higher yields.

Those yields influence borrowing costs across the economy, so the effects can eventually reach mortgages, car loans, business loans and other credit.

Higher yields also push down the value of existing bonds — one reason the broader bond market is already down roughly 2.5% in 2026.

The odometer is still running. The bigger question is what happens if the recent pace continues.

Lesson Of The Day:

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Wait, The Treasury Buys Treasuries?

The Treasury just announced it will at least double the size of one of its bond buybacks.

Which sounds extremely boring.

Until you see what happened next.

Long-term Treasury yields moved lower, while equity futures moved higher.

And the timing made it more interesting: Treasury had published its quarterly buyback schedule only two weeks earlier. This increase wasn’t on it.

So why did markets care?

Here is the story. ⇩

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“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

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Get the Name & Ticker — Free

What A Treasury “Buyback” Actually Is?

1 It starts with older bonds.
Treasury regularly issues new debt. As newer bonds replace older ones, those older “off-the-run” Treasuries can become less actively traded and less liquid.

2 Treasury buys some of them back.
A buyback allows Treasury to purchase those older securities from investors. The primary goal isn’t to shrink the national debt — it’s to improve liquidity and keep the Treasury market functioning smoothly.

3 More demand can push yields lower.
Buying adds demand for those bonds, which can lift their prices. And because bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, higher prices generally mean lower yields.

4 Now Treasury is doing more of it.
The maximum size of certain long-term buyback operations is increasing from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, covering bonds in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity buckets.

That helps explain today’s immediate reaction: long-term Treasury yields moved lower after the announcement.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

42 Straight Sells. Zero Buys. So Where Is the AI Money Going?

Nvidia insiders sold $1.8 billion in stock in a single year, according to the report.

One man isn’t abandoning AI he’s looking beyond the infrastructure trade to a mystery cybersecurity company already used by 70% of the Fortune 100.

Click here to learn more

It Was Getting Expensive↓

✱ Long-term yields had been climbing as investors weighed inflation, government borrowing and the growing supply of Treasury debt.
By Tuesday, the 30-year yield had reached its highest level since 2007.

Long-term Treasury yields are essentially the economy’s baseline cost of money. When they rise, borrowing tends to get more expensive across the system — mortgages, corporate loans, infrastructure projects and government financing all feel some version of it.

Stay high long enough, and the pressure starts to spread.

→ Homebuyers face higher mortgage rates.
→ Companies pay more to borrow and invest.
→ The government pays more interest to finance its debt.
→ Stocks face more competition from bonds offering higher returns.

And more supply was coming: Treasury was preparing to auction another $16 billion of 20-year bonds into a market already dealing with elevated yields.

Then came Wednesday’s buyback announcement.

Treasury announced it would become a bigger buyer itself, doubling the ceiling on certain long-term buybacks just two weeks after publishing its quarterly schedule.

This came at a moment when the cost of long-term money was becoming increasingly expensive across the economy.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Forget Mag7 – this is where smart money is flowing

A new type of AI called “Accelerated AI” is about to take the world by storm…

And stocks connected to it are already breaking out: 133%… 210%… and even 320% or more just in the last few months.

But it’s just getting started…

If you want to learn more about “Accelerated AI” – and get name and ticker of the #1 pick to play this opportunity…

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Why Stocks Care About a Treasury Buyback? 

Lower long-term yields generally mean cheaper financing and a lower hurdle for future earnings. That tends to be particularly helpful for growth and technology companies, where investors are placing more value on profits expected years from now.

There’s also a simpler way to think about it: when the return available from relatively safe government bonds falls, stocks become a little more attractive by comparison.

The announcement was about bonds.

The reaction didn’t stay there.

So, How To Read This? 

Depends who you ask.

1 John Briggs, head of U.S. rates strategy at Natixis, sees the move as more than routine market maintenance.

His read is that the timing sends a message: if long-term yields climb too far, Treasury may be willing to step in more aggressively.

In other words, Wednesday may have given markets a first glimpse of where Treasury starts getting uncomfortable with higher yields.

2 Peter Boockvar at One Point BFG makes a different point: this isn’t the government paying down its debt.

Treasury still owes the same amount. The buybacks simply change the mix of bonds in the market, improve liquidity and help relieve pressure in certain maturities.

In short: the debt isn’t disappearing — it’s being rearranged.

So why should anyone outside a bond desk care?

Because Higher Yields = Higher Mortgage Rates

On Tuesday, the average 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.75%.

That same day, the 30-year Treasury yield reached a 19-year high.

Not exactly unrelated.

Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, because most 30-year mortgages don’t actually stay outstanding for 30 years — homeowners refinance, sell or pay them off earlier.

So when Treasury yields climb, mortgage lenders generally need to charge more too.

And when yields fall?

That pressure can start moving the other way.

Wednesday’s Treasury announcement pushed the 10-year yield down roughly 6 basis points within minutes.

One day doesn’t make a mortgage trend.

But if lower Treasury yields stick around, homebuyers could eventually see some of that relief show up in the rate they’re actually quoted.

How We Got Above 5%? 

The connection goes something like this:

Iran conflict → oil prices ↑ → inflation concerns ↑ → bond yields ↑ → borrowing costs ↑

And that last part is where the story moves from geopolitics to your wallet.

Higher Treasury yields have helped keep mortgage rates elevated, made borrowing more expensive for businesses and increased the government’s own cost of financing its debt.

Wednesday’s buyback announcement doesn’t reverse that entire chain.

But it does show that Treasury is paying attention to the pressure building at the long end of the bond market — and is willing to use its buyback program more aggressively as yields climb.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

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Wait, The Treasury Buys Treasuries?

The Treasury just announced it will at least double the size of one of its bond buybacks.

Which sounds extremely boring.

Until you see what happened next.

Long-term Treasury yields moved lower, while equity futures moved higher.

And the timing made it more interesting: Treasury had published its quarterly buyback schedule only two weeks earlier. This increase wasn’t on it.

So why did markets care?

Here is the story. ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon’s next move is brewing, and it’s bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
Get the Name & Ticker — Free

What A Treasury “Buyback” Actually Is?

1 It starts with older bonds.
Treasury regularly issues new debt. As newer bonds replace older ones, those older “off-the-run” Treasuries can become less actively traded and less liquid.

2 Treasury buys some of them back.
A buyback allows Treasury to purchase those older securities from investors. The primary goal isn’t to shrink the national debt — it’s to improve liquidity and keep the Treasury market functioning smoothly.

3 More demand can push yields lower.
Buying adds demand for those bonds, which can lift their prices. And because bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, higher prices generally mean lower yields.

4 Now Treasury is doing more of it.
The maximum size of certain long-term buyback operations is increasing from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, covering bonds in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity buckets.

That helps explain today’s immediate reaction: long-term Treasury yields moved lower after the announcement.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

42 Straight Sells. Zero Buys. So Where Is the AI Money Going?

Nvidia insiders sold $1.8 billion in stock in a single year, according to the report.

One man isn’t abandoning AI he’s looking beyond the infrastructure trade to a mystery cybersecurity company already used by 70% of the Fortune 100.

Click here to learn more

It Was Getting Expensive↓

✱ Long-term yields had been climbing as investors weighed inflation, government borrowing and the growing supply of Treasury debt.
By Tuesday, the 30-year yield had reached its highest level since 2007.

Long-term Treasury yields are essentially the economy’s baseline cost of money. When they rise, borrowing tends to get more expensive across the system — mortgages, corporate loans, infrastructure projects and government financing all feel some version of it.

Stay high long enough, and the pressure starts to spread.

→ Homebuyers face higher mortgage rates.
→ Companies pay more to borrow and invest.
→ The government pays more interest to finance its debt.
→ Stocks face more competition from bonds offering higher returns.

And more supply was coming: Treasury was preparing to auction another $16 billion of 20-year bonds into a market already dealing with elevated yields.

Then came Wednesday’s buyback announcement.

Treasury announced it would become a bigger buyer itself, doubling the ceiling on certain long-term buybacks just two weeks after publishing its quarterly schedule.

This came at a moment when the cost of long-term money was becoming increasingly expensive across the economy.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Forget Mag7 – this is where smart money is flowing

A new type of AI called “Accelerated AI” is about to take the world by storm…

And stocks connected to it are already breaking out: 133%… 210%… and even 320% or more just in the last few months.

But it’s just getting started…

If you want to learn more about “Accelerated AI” – and get name and ticker of the #1 pick to play this opportunity…

Click here for more details. (No purchase necessary.)
 

Why Stocks Care About a Treasury Buyback? 

Lower long-term yields generally mean cheaper financing and a lower hurdle for future earnings. That tends to be particularly helpful for growth and technology companies, where investors are placing more value on profits expected years from now.

There’s also a simpler way to think about it: when the return available from relatively safe government bonds falls, stocks become a little more attractive by comparison.

The announcement was about bonds.

The reaction didn’t stay there.

So, How To Read This? 

Depends who you ask.

1 John Briggs, head of U.S. rates strategy at Natixis, sees the move as more than routine market maintenance.

His read is that the timing sends a message: if long-term yields climb too far, Treasury may be willing to step in more aggressively.

In other words, Wednesday may have given markets a first glimpse of where Treasury starts getting uncomfortable with higher yields.

2 Peter Boockvar at One Point BFG makes a different point: this isn’t the government paying down its debt.

Treasury still owes the same amount. The buybacks simply change the mix of bonds in the market, improve liquidity and help relieve pressure in certain maturities.

In short: the debt isn’t disappearing — it’s being rearranged.

So why should anyone outside a bond desk care?

Because Higher Yields = Higher Mortgage Rates

On Tuesday, the average 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.75%.

That same day, the 30-year Treasury yield reached a 19-year high.

Not exactly unrelated.

Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, because most 30-year mortgages don’t actually stay outstanding for 30 years — homeowners refinance, sell or pay them off earlier.

So when Treasury yields climb, mortgage lenders generally need to charge more too.

And when yields fall?

That pressure can start moving the other way.

Wednesday’s Treasury announcement pushed the 10-year yield down roughly 6 basis points within minutes.

One day doesn’t make a mortgage trend.

But if lower Treasury yields stick around, homebuyers could eventually see some of that relief show up in the rate they’re actually quoted.

How We Got Above 5%? 

The connection goes something like this:

Iran conflict → oil prices ↑ → inflation concerns ↑ → bond yields ↑ → borrowing costs ↑

And that last part is where the story moves from geopolitics to your wallet.

Higher Treasury yields have helped keep mortgage rates elevated, made borrowing more expensive for businesses and increased the government’s own cost of financing its debt.

Wednesday’s buyback announcement doesn’t reverse that entire chain.

But it does show that Treasury is paying attention to the pressure building at the long end of the bond market — and is willing to use its buyback program more aggressively as yields climb.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

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Target vs. Walmart

source:Yahoo Finance

Apparently, growing faster doesn’t always win you the checkout line.

Last quarter, Walmart grew revenue 7.3%. Target managed 6.7% — the slowest growth among the four big-box retailers we tracked.

Then the stocks went in opposite directions.

Target beat revenue, EPS and gross-margin expectations, and its shares climbed 21.7% after the report. Walmart beat on revenue too, but softer-than-expected earnings guidance helped send its shares 11.9% lower.

Now we get the rematch.

Target reports Wednesday. Walmart follows Thursday.

And beyond who beats or misses, these two reports give us something more useful: two very different reads on where the American consumer is spending…

Here is the story. ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

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The Numbers.

At first glance, these don’t look like two dramatically different quarters.

Walmart actually grew faster: 7.3% vs. Target’s 6.7%. Both beat revenue expectations.

Then came the part Wall Street cared about.

→ Target $TGT ( ▲ 0.97% ) delivered the bigger revenue beat, topped EPS expectations and raised its outlook.
→ Walmart’s $WMT ( ▲ 0.76% ) quarter was solid, but its forward EPS guidance came in below what analysts expected.

Target shares climbed 21.7% after reporting. Walmart fell 11.9%.

The stock reactions diverged almost entirely on guidance, not on the quarter itself.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by OxfordClub*

42 Straight Sells. Zero Buys. So Where Is the AI Money Going?

Nvidia insiders sold $1.8 billion in stock in a single year, according to the report.

One man isn’t abandoning AI he’s looking beyond the infrastructure trade to a mystery cybersecurity company already used by 70% of the Fortune 100.

Click here to learn more

Good Quarter. Wrong Outlook.

The contrast is hard to miss. Both retailers beat revenue expectations, and Walmart actually posted slightly faster growth.

But investors were already looking past Q1.

Target paired its beat with a stronger outlook, while Walmart’s forward EPS guidance came in below Wall Street expectations.

✱  The result was a roughly 34-percentage-point difference in their post-earnings stock performance, despite comparable underlying revenue growth.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

Forget Mag7 – this is where smart money is flowing

A new type of AI called “Accelerated AI” is about to take the world by storm…

And stocks connected to it are already breaking out: 133%… 210%… and even 320% or more just in the last few months.

But it’s just getting started…

If you want to learn more about “Accelerated AI” – and get name and ticker of the #1 pick to play this opportunity…

Click here for more details. (No purchase necessary.)
 

What’s New At Target? Quite A Lot.

Target enters Q2 with more than a better stock chart. The company has been reworking what shoppers actually find on the shelves — adding 3,000 new beauty products, refreshing 75% of home décor and making more than half of its back-to-school assortment new.

Technology is getting its own reset, too. Target hired its first Chief AI Officer, with a mandate spanning inventory and the shopping experience.

Now comes the harder part: proving those changes are showing up in the numbers.

Wall Street is looking for roughly +2.3% comparable sales and $2.29 EPS, helped by an easier comparison with last year’s weaker quarter.

Analysts are split on what happens after that.
1 Jefferies’ Corey Tarlowe believes the market is underestimating how durable Target’s traffic improvement could be.
2 Deutsche Bank’s Krisztina Katai wants more evidence that the gains extend beyond favorable year-over-year comparisons.

The turnaround is in motion. This week tells us how much of it has reached the shopper.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

“I called Tesla in 2019. Here’s what I’m buying now.”

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon’s next move is brewing, and it’s bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
Get the Name & Ticker — Free

Walmart Has A Different Test.

Walmart enters this week from almost the opposite direction.

Walmart Q2 FY2027 expectations:
→ EPS: $0.73-$0.74 (top of Walmart’s own $0.72-$0.74 guidance range)
→ Revenue: $186.3-186.8 billion, +7.4% YoY
→ US comp sales (ex-fuel) expected: +3.57%, down from +4.1% last quarter
→ Estimates have been trending down: 73 cents now vs 74 cents a month ago vs 75 cents three months ago
→ Full-year FY2027 guidance: adjusted EPS $2.75-$2.85

RBC’s Steven Shemesh sees Walmart and Target together as a broader check on the health of the U.S. consumer.

And Walmart offers a different lens: its enormous exposure to groceries and everyday essentials makes its results particularly useful for seeing how households are spending when they have less discretion over what goes in the cart.

In short, Walmart’s numbers read more like a macro signal than a company-specific turnaround story.

Put simply: one report tells us how the turnaround is progressing. The other helps tell us how the consumer is holding up.

By Thursday, we’ll know whether the gap is closing — or getting wider.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

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