The market just erased a war. In 8 days.

credit: Yahoo Finance

Let that sink in for a second.

The S&P 500 quietly erased every single loss from the Iran war.

Every. Single. One.

1 The S&P is knocking on the door of 7,000.
2 The Nasdaq just notched its tenth straight winning session.
3 The Magnificent Seven ETF is up another 2%.
4 The VIX surged above 30 in the early days of the war. It’s now back to a 17 handle.

That round trip took only eight trading sessions.

The war happened. The market just… moved on.

Here’s what’s actually going on. ⇩

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Eight sessions. That’s it.

Last year, after the Liberation Day sell-off, it took 26 trading sessions for volatility to cool back down. This time it took 8.

And the S&P is already within 0.5% of a record close — only 53 sessions after the March 30 low.

Last year the same recovery took 88 sessions.

The pattern is becoming impossible to ignore: volatility spikes are being treated as events to fade, not trends to follow.

Yeah, but… (always check the fine print)

Bank of America just made $8.6 billion in three months.

→ Profits up 17% ▲ . Investment banking up 21% ▲ . Trading revenue up 13% ▲.
→ A record quarter for equity trading.
→ M&A advisory fees alone jumped 45%.

Good quarter then.

But here’s the thing about being the second largest bank in America — you see everything.
→ The consumer spending.
→ The credit card data.
→ The loan books.
→ The private credit exposure.
→ All of it flows through.

And what Bank of America is seeing right now is giving their strategists pause.

!!! This is not a “close-eyes-and-buy” market.

That’s not a random opinion. It comes backed by their monthly survey of professional fund managers.

And the latest results are worth sitting with.
→ Growth expectations: cut to levels not seen since early 2022.
→ Inflation pessimism: highest since 2021.
→ Overall sentiment: worst since last summer.

The scoreboard says bull market. The fund managers say proceed with caution.

To be fair — this survey was taken between April 2 and 9. Right in the middle of the war. Right before the ceasefire. So some of that gloom may already be fading.

But some of it probably isn’t.

The market is at 7,000. The fear gauge is back below 18. Banks are printing money.

And the smartest money in the room is quietly reading the fine print.

(A reason to pay attention.)

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Story 1: But the consumer is still spending. Somehow.

→ $4 gas.
→ Record low consumer sentiment.
→ An active war in the Middle East two weeks ago.

And the vibes? Historically bad.

The University of Michigan has been asking Americans how they feel about the economy since 1952. In early April, the answer hit an all time low. Lower than the 2008 financial crisis. Lower than the pandemic. Lower than any point in the last 70 years.

People were not feeling good.

And yet.

Jamie Dimon’s take on Tuesday’s earnings call was simple. People still have jobs. Unemployment is low. And when things get tight, consumers cut back on travel — they don’t fall off a cliff.

→ The US added 178,000 jobs in March.
→ Unemployment ticked down to 4.3%.

His logic: as long as people have paychecks, they find ways to absorb higher prices. Maybe they take a gig job. Maybe they cut back on travel. But they keep spending.

Bank of America‘s own data backs that up. Combined debit and credit card spending from their US customers rose 7% year over year in Q1.
Credit card delinquencies over 90 days? Actually went down – from 1.34% to 1.30%.

Wall Street keeps underestimating the consumer.

They keep proving it wrong and keep swiping anyway.

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The biggest in Wall Street history…

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Meanwhile….

I want you to think about the last pair of shoes you bought.

Now imagine the company that made them woke up one morning and decided shoes were no longer their thing.

They sold the shoe business for $39 million. Raised $50 million from an institutional investor. And announced they are now an AI infrastructure company.

Their stock went up 707% ▲ today.

Story 2: The Shoe Company That Became An AI Company

Last month Allbirds BIRD ( ▲ 691.17% ) sold its entire shoe business to American Exchange Group for $39 million. $39 million for a brand that was once worth $4 billion at IPO.

Then today they announced something nobody saw coming.

Allbirds raised $50 million from an institutional investor.
→ The plan: pivot entirely to AI compute infrastructure.
→ The new name: NewBird AI.
→ The vision: become a fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service provider.

The stock went up 707% ▲.

In one day. From a shoe company.

NewBird AI plans to use its initial capital to acquire high-performance GPU assets to serve customers needing dedicated AI compute capacity.

The company also quietly noted in its SEC filing that it will ask shareholders to approve removing “references to the company being operated for the environmental conservation public benefit.”

Sooo… No more sustainable shoes. No more environmental mission. Just GPUs.

NewBird AI is hoping GPU demand proves a longer lasting trend.
History will be the judge.

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Story 3: Software’s Comeback Nobody Saw Coming

Two weeks ago software stocks were being escorted out of the building. Anthropic‘s multi-agent orchestration announcement sent the entire sector into an existential spiral.
→ ServiceNow was down 7.6%.
→ Palo Alto was down 6.7%.
→ Atlassian was down 3%.

This week those same stocks are having their best three day stretch in almost a year.

The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF IGV is up 4.45% ▲ today alone.

→ Oracle ORCL ( ▲ 4.68% ) up more than 20% this week
→ Microsoft MSFT ( ▲ 5.17% ) today
→ ServiceNow NOW ( ▲ 7.48% ) today
→ Datadog DDOG ( ▲ 8.87% ) today
→ Atlassian TEAM ( ▲ 9.19% ) today
→ Intuit INTU ( ▲ 6.29% ) today
→ CrowdStrike CRWD ( ▲ 2.74% ) today
→ Autodesk ADSK ( ▲ 4.82% ) today

What changed?

Two things.

1 Mean reversion. These stocks fell so far so fast that investors who do their homework decided the prices were simply too cheap to ignore.
Bottom fishers arrived.

2 The market may have been too panicky. As one strategist put it — the sell-off hit companies that could survive and thrive in the AI era right alongside those actually threatened by it. Separating those two groups is where the real opportunity lives.

Plain English: the market panicked and threw out the good with the bad. Someone is going to make a lot of money figuring out which is which.

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A Few Quick Hits:

→ Robinhood HOOD ( ▲ 10.53% ) – The SEC removed the pattern day trading rule that stopped small investors from making more than four day trades in five days if their account had less than $25,000. All traders now just need enough in their margin account to cover their exposure. Webull BULL jumped 11.43%▲ on the same news. Retail traders everywhere are having a moment.

→ Broadcom AVGO ( ▲ 3.61% ) – Expanded its chip partnership with Meta META ( ▲ 1.59% ) to produce multi-generation custom chips powering Meta’s AI accelerators through 2029. JPMorgan estimates the first deployment alone represents a $12 to $15 billion revenue opportunity for Broadcom. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan will move from Meta’s board to an advisory role as part of the deal.

→ Snap SNAP ( ▲ 7.59% ) – Announced it’s cutting roughly 1,000 roles – about 16% of its full-time workforce – to save $500 million in annualized expenses. Q1 revenue expected up 12% year over year. The market rewarded the cuts immediately. CEO Evan Spiegel cited AI enabling teams to “reduce repetitive work.” Layoffs dressed up as efficiency. Classic tech.

→ Lyft LYFT ( ▲ 7.19% ) – Revealed details of its 80,000 square foot Nashville warehouse being built to service, charge, and maintain Waymo’s autonomous vehicle fleet. More than 70 workers being hired – including former Lyft drivers. Meanwhile Uber $UBER has committed more than $10 billion to robotaxis. Two very different bets on the same future.

!!! Not financial advice. The stocks mentioned are for educational purposes only. Do your own research before making investment decisions, please check the disclaimer below.

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