Gold vs. 5%…

Gold has had quite the run.

The metal is hovering around $4,400 an ounce, while the 10-year Treasury yield came within a whisker of 5% this week.

Put those two numbers next to each other and things get interesting.

Historically, higher yields have tended to make life harder for gold. Not every time, and certainly not in a straight line — but the relationship has been one of the more useful ways to understand the metal.

Right now?

Gold doesn’t seem particularly bothered.

So we went looking for what else might be keeping it up.

The trail leads from interest rates… to central banks… to a $40 trillion pile of U.S. debt.

Let’s follow it. ⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Katusa Research*

A Rare Gold Signal Fired

What I’m about to show you doesn’t come from me.
It comes from SentimenTrader — a quantitative research firm with no gold
newsletter to sell and no side in this fight.
Their GLD sentiment gauge just did something it has done only eight times
since 2008…
Its 50-day average dropped below 36% for the first time in three months.
The signal fired June 23rd.
My team pulled every prior instance and checked what gold did next.
Here’s the full record:

One year after every one of those eight signals, gold was higher.
Every single time. Median gain: roughly 16%.
Two honest caveats, because you deserve them. Eight signals is a small
sample — history rhyming is not history repeating.

But here’s why this matters more for our world than for GLD holders.
Gold miners are leverage on this exact move – find out what I’m buying.

When the metal recovers a double-digit percentage, producers’ margins expand
faster than the gold price itself.

Which is why quality gold stocks have historically amplified these turns in both
directions. Down first, then up.

And historically, gold’s friendliest stretch of the year — opened in July.

Bearish sentiment at an extreme.

A seasonal tailwind just beginning. But, I don’t call bottoms.

I position for asymmetry when the crowd leaves the room.

That’s what the entries and position sizing in The 3 Best Gold Stocks to Buy
Now are for…

And it’s yours the moment you join at the 2016 charter price…

Regards,
Marin Katusa
 

First, That 5%.

✱ Gold and high yields aren’t usually the best of friends.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.96% this week, while real yields — what investors earn after accounting for expected inflation — remained above 2%.

→ Normally, that should make gold’s job harder.

After all, gold pays no interest. When investors can earn an attractive inflation-adjusted return from Treasuries, holding a non-yielding metal becomes a little harder to justify.

And yet…

Gold averaged $4,506 an ounce in Q2, up 37% from a year earlier, even with real yields above 2%.

That’s the unusual part.

The old relationship hasn’t disappeared. But something else is clearly strong enough to compete with it.

So, who’s buying?↓

Enter: The Central Banks.

If higher yields are supposed to be holding gold back, central banks have been pushing the other way.

They bought 289 tonnes in Q2 — 62% more than a year earlier and the strongest second quarter on record.

Some of the biggest buyers:

→ Poland: +51 tonnes
→ China: +33 tonnes
→ Uzbekistan: +16 tonnes
→ Kazakhstan: +15 tonnes

But one quarter doesn’t really tell the story.

Over the past four years, central banks have bought roughly 1,000 tonnes of gold per year. During the decade before that, they averaged closer to 500 tonnes.

In other words, the world’s central banks have roughly doubled their annual gold-buying habit.

That’s a lot of steady demand for a market where new supply doesn’t appear overnight.

And it helps explain why gold has been able to shrug off something that would normally hurt it: high real yields.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Katusa Research*

Gold’s biggest move is still ahead

We’re up about 150%. The last gold bull ran past 500%. History says
we’re early.

For 20 years, I’ve watched what central banks do with their gold.
The pattern I see now? I’ve seen once before – right before gold tripled.
People keep telling me gold has had its run and the easy money is gone.
I get it. The price has cooled off from where it peaked earlier this year, and
pullbacks make people nervous.
But history says it’s time to buy…

This chart lines up the great gold bull markets by length and size.
— The current one, in green, is about 47 months old and up roughly
150%.
— The 2000s bull ran 139 months and past 500%.
— The 1970s bulls ran hot for years.
In short, this gold bull market has a long way to go… Here’s the Fuel…

Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, the fourth straight year at
more than double the historical average. For the first time since 1996, foreign central banks hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries. Central banks are buying at the fastest pace in decades…

But here’s what’s changed:
New players in the market are buying as much as the central banks, if not more.

And the newest whale isn’t a country at all:
— It’s Tether, the company behind the world’s most-used digital
dollar. It has quietly built one of the largest private gold hoards on
earth…
With around 140 tonnes and $24 billion of gold… Hauling one to two tons a week into a Swiss vault. This past winter, it bought more gold than every central bank except Brazil and Poland.
Nobody had that buyer on their list a year ago.
So no matter what… I believe gold now has a floor under it…
And when the price of gold moves a little… the right small gold stocks move a
lot.
Three of those names are waiting for you in your second free report, called The
3 Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now…

Regards,
Marin Katusa
 

They Told Us So.

And central banks don’t sound finished.

In the World Gold Council’s latest survey, 89% said they expect global central-bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months.

More tellingly, a record 45% expect to add to their own reserves.

This isn’t about trying to catch the next move in gold.

Central banks are managing reserves measured in the billions — and they cited diversification, performance during crises, inflation protection, and geopolitical uncertainty among the reasons for holding the metal.

→ A Treasury is ultimately an obligation of the U.S. government. A corporate bond depends on a company. A bank deposit depends on a bank.

→ Gold is simply an asset held outright.

For institutions deciding where to store hundreds of billions of dollars, that distinction can carry a lot of weight.

Enough, in fact, to start reshuffling what the world keeps in reserve.↓

Gold Moved Up the Table.

Here’s a stat that deserves a second look:

Gold surpassed U.S. Treasurys as a share of global official reserves in 2025.

That sounds like central banks were dumping Treasurys for gold.

They weren’t.

✱ According to the IMF, much of the shift came from something simpler: gold got a lot more expensive. As its price climbed, so did its weight on central-bank balance sheets.

And the dollar remains dominant, accounting for roughly 57% of allocated global foreign-exchange reserves in Q1 2026.

So this isn’t a changing-of-the-guard story. It’s a changing-of-the-mix story.

Gold didn’t replace the dollar. It simply became too big to ignore.

Which brings us to the other side of the reserve equation.

Meanwhile, $40 Trillion.

There’s another number sitting in the background of the gold story.

$40 trillion.

U.S. federal debt ended 2025 at roughly $37.6 trillion. This year, it crossed the $40 trillion mark.

But the size of the debt is only part of the story.

Federal interest expense has already reached roughly $1.05 trillion this fiscal year. And as older debt gets refinanced at higher rates, carrying that debt becomes increasingly expensive.

That doesn’t give us a neat equation where:

More debt = higher gold.

But think about it from a central bank’s perspective.

Reserve managers are deciding where to store hundreds of billions of dollars while the world’s largest government bond market carries $40T+ in debt, a growing interest bill, and yields flirting with 5%.

Treasurys still offer something gold doesn’t: income.

Gold offers something Treasurys don’t: no issuer at all.

For a reserve manager, owning some of both starts to look less unusual.

So, Is the Old Gold Playbook Broken?

Not quite.

Rates still matter. The dollar still matters. Inflation still matters. And geopolitics certainly hasn’t left the conversation.

But there’s another force in the market now: a structural buyer.

Central banks have roughly doubled their annual gold purchases compared with the previous decade. And nearly half of those surveyed say they expect to keep adding to their own reserves.

That helps explain the unusual picture we started with:

10-year Treasury → ~5%
Gold → ~$4,400

Historically, those two numbers might have looked difficult to square.

Today, less so.

$4,400 gold may look expensive on a chart.

For a central bank thinking about diversification, geopolitics and the next decade?

Price isn’t the only thing on the ledger.

Lesson Of The Day:

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