Day Two

Two red days.

That is what everybody saw.

SpaceX fell another 3.56% Thursday, extending its first pullback since going public. The stock closed at $185 after falling as much as 10% intraday.

What fewer people noticed was everything happening underneath the stock.

SpaceX is preparing a $20 billion investment-grade bond deal. Analysts published targets ranging from $63 to $401.

Nasdaq 100 inclusion moved one step closer. And investors were once again debating whether Elon Musk is building the next great industrial company — or the most expensive stock on Earth.

The stock fell. The company didn’t.

Here is the story. ⇩

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SpaceX Raised $20 Billion More

While the stock was pulling back, SpaceX was preparing its first investment-grade bond deal.

The company is reportedly lining up at least $20 billion in debt financing, with investor calls expected as soon as next week. The proceeds would refinance a bridge loan that represents the majority of SpaceX’s long-term debt.

Three things stand out.

1 First, investment-grade ratings mean lower borrowing costs. That makes every future Starlink launch, AI data center, satellite deployment, and Mars-related project cheaper to finance.

2 Second, the same banks that led the record-breaking IPO — Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley — are leading the bond deal as well.

3 Third, companies under financial pressure do not typically issue investment-grade debt days after completing the largest IPO in history.

The stock may be correcting.

Wall Street’s appetite for SpaceX appears intact.

The Analyst Targets — from $63 to $401

Five analysts. Five very different views. One stock. Here is the full range:

That spread tells you everything you need to know about SpaceX.

Nobody agrees what it is worth.

The bulls see a company sitting at the intersection of space infrastructure, communications, AI computing, defense technology, and autonomous systems.

The bears see a company valued as if most of those future businesses have already succeeded.

Neither is impossible. Neither is guaranteed.

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The 2030 revenue debate — Musk vs Goldman vs Morgan Stanley

The disagreement becomes even clearer when looking at 2030 revenue forecasts.

Elon Musk: $1 trillion

Goldman Sachs: $470 billion

Morgan Stanley: $330 billion

2025 revenue: $18.7 billion

At Goldman’s estimate, SpaceX’s current valuation would eventually fall to roughly 5x sales by 2030.

At today’s revenue, it trades closer to 100x.

The entire valuation debate comes down to one question:

How much of the next five years is already priced in?

The One That Buffett Missed 

One of the most shared statistics this week had nothing to do with rockets.

At SpaceX’s peak valuation, Elon Musk added roughly $164 billion to his net worth in a single day.

Warren Buffett accumulated $148 billion over more than six decades.

A lifetime versus a Monday.

Buffett has always been respectful of Musk.

In 2022 he said: “Taking on General Motors, Ford, Toyota — he’s got an idea and he’s winning.”

Yet Berkshire Hathaway never bought Tesla.

Never bought SpaceX.

Never bought any Musk company.

Charlie Munger may be the more fascinating story.

Munger reportedly had lunch with Musk in late 2008 when Tesla was worth roughly $200 million.

He passed.

Tesla eventually crossed $1 trillion.

Years later Munger called Musk: “A certified genius.“

Sometimes the greatest investors in history miss the biggest winners.

Not because they do not recognize brilliance.

Because investing is also knowing which risks you are willing to take.

What’s Next?

The next catalyst is not the stock chart.

It is the calendar.

Nasdaq 100 eligibility arrives after just 15 trading days, putting SpaceX on track for potential inclusion in early July. That could force index funds to become buyers.

The S&P 500 is a different story. SpaceX must wait at least a year and satisfy profitability requirements before it can qualify.

SpaceX has now fallen for two consecutive days.

It is still up roughly 37% from its IPO price.

Meanwhile the company is preparing a $20 billion investment-grade bond deal, analysts are debating whether it is worth $63 or $401, and Wall Street is already positioning for index inclusion.

The pullback is the stock.

The bond deal, the analyst targets, and the inclusion timeline are the business.

They are not the same thing.

First week complete.

Lesson Of The Day:

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