The Most Expensive 1%.
SpaceX has spent the past month doing very little.
Shares have bounced between $133 and $150, with no major catalyst pushing them decisively in either direction.
But on September 21, that could change.
JPMorgan thinks SpaceX could suddenly find itself on the receiving end of roughly $15.5 billion in buying.
And the reason has surprisingly little to do with the company’s business at all.
It starts with 1%… and $15.5 billion in passive buying.
So, let’s see where all that money is coming from. ⇩
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The Rule!
SpaceX is the 6th-largest company in the Nasdaq 100 by market value.
But it’s only the 19th-largest holding in the index.
Why the gap?
✱ An index weighting is simply the percentage of an index assigned to each company. If a stock has a 5% weighting, a fund tracking the index generally needs roughly 5% of its portfolio exposed to that stock.
So how does Nasdaq decide how much SpaceX counts?
1 Nasdaq doesn’t look only at what a company is worth. It also looks at how much of that company investors can actually trade — known as its free float.
For the Nasdaq 100 calculation, it uses whichever is lower:
the company’s full market value, or a value based on three times its free float.
2 That’s important because a company can be enormous on paper while relatively few of its shares are actually available to investors. When that happens, Nasdaq gives the company a smaller weight in the index than its overall market value would normally suggest.
3 That’s exactly what happened with SpaceX.
Despite its enormous market value, relatively few shares have been available to trade — leaving SpaceX with a much smaller index weighting than its size would suggest.
→ The result: SpaceX ranks 6th by market value, but just 19th by index weight.
And that gap is now starting to close. ↓
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So, What Changed?
Source: Bloomberg · September 8, 2026
More than 1 billion shares have been released from lockup restrictions since the IPO, nearly tripling SpaceX’s free float.
SpaceX hasn’t suddenly become more valuable.
More of it has simply become available to trade.
And under Nasdaq’s formula, that changes the math. ↓
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And… That Changes The Math.
→ JPMorgan estimates SpaceX’s Nasdaq 100 weighting could rise from 1.25% to roughly 2.25% at the upcoming rebalance.
One percentage point doesn’t sound particularly dramatic.
Across $1.7 trillion of index-tracking money, however, JPMorgan estimates the adjustment could require roughly $15.5 billion in net SpaceX buying as passive funds bring their holdings in line with the new weighting.
Those funds aren’t making a fresh call on SpaceX’s rockets, AI ambitions or valuation. They’re doing what index funds are built to do: follow the index.
Which leaves SpaceX in a rather unusual position.
The release of locked-up shares creates more stock that could be sold.
It also creates the conditions for index funds to potentially buy $15.5 billion more of it.
More shares. More sellers. And, potentially, a lot more buyers.↓
Buyers, Meet Sellers.
There is, of course, another side to all that buying.
The same lockup expirations increasing SpaceX’s weight in the Nasdaq 100 are also putting more shares into the hands of investors who are now free to sell them.
So the setup cuts both ways.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, sees two possibilities: newly unlocked shares could be sold into the expected index demand, absorbing some of that buying, or demand from index funds could be strong enough to push the stock higher.
Either way, September 21 brings a rather unusual collision: new shares available to sell, just as billions in potential buyers arrive.
And We’ve Seen This Before.
When Berkshire Hathaway reduced its Apple stake two years ago, more Apple shares became part of the stock’s available float.
That affected its index weighting too.
Piper Sandler estimated the resulting adjustment could generate roughly $40 billion in passive buying.
So the mechanism itself isn’t new.
✱ What makes SpaceX unusual is the scale of the shares still coming unlocked — and how much its place in the index could continue to change along with them.
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