Mission Accomplished?

For most of human history, getting anything into space was an extraordinarily expensive undertaking.

Rockets and satellites were largely the business of governments. And the idea of making money somewhere above the atmosphere was, well, ambitious.

Then launching things got cheaper.

A lot cheaper.

Companies started building satellites, investors started writing checks, and suddenly space looked less like a government science project and more like the next great industry.

Wall Street was delighted.

Perhaps a little too delighted.

Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya recently shared research from his firm, Social Capital, tracking ten publicly traded space companies.

The results were spectacular.

→ Up 1,123% from January 2024 to their May 2026 peak.

→ Down 67% from that peak by mid-October.

That’s quite a return trip for an industry built around reaching new heights.

And even after the selloff, the basket remained approximately 300% above its starting value.

But the research raises a question that stock prices alone can’t answer.

Who’s going to pay for all the services they’re supposed to provide?

Because building a space industry is one thing.

Building one that can support itself is another.

Here’s the story.⇩

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The Basket… 

Social Capital’s basket brings together ten companies with rather different ambitions.

→ Rocket Lab RKLB ( ▼ 4.87% ) builds rockets and satellite systems.

→ AST SpaceMobile ASTS ( ▼ 3.1% ) wants ordinary smartphones to connect directly to satellites.

→ Intuitive Machines LUNR ( ▼ 5.87% ) focuses on lunar missions and space infrastructure.

→ Planet Labs PL ( ▼ 5.74% ) uses satellites to photograph and monitor Earth.

The remaining six — Redwire RDW ( ▼5.79% ), BlackSky BKSY ( ▼5.1% ) , Spire Global SPIR ( ▼3.45% ) , Satellogic SATL ( ▼2.13% ) , Virgin Galactic SPCE ( ▲ 0.2% )  , and Globalstar GSAT ( ▲ 0.56% ) — round out a group spanning everything from satellite data to space tourism.

Social Capital gave each an equal share of its hypothetical portfolio… and that’s where things get interesting.

Imagine putting $10,000 into this basket at the beginning of 2024.

By May 2026, the investment would have grown to approximately $122,300.

Enough to make the space economy look like a rather brilliant idea.

Then came the return trip.

By October 16, that same investment would have been worth roughly $40,000.

More than $82,000 of its peak value had disappeared.

And yet, a 300% gain from where it started.

✱ Was this one of the market’s greatest investment opportunities or a spectacular collapse?

The basket’s performance says plenty about investor enthusiasm.

But it doesn’t explain why so much money started chasing space companies in the first place.

For that, we need to look at what’s been happening to the cost of getting into orbit. ↓

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Space Is Getting Crowded…

According to Chamath Palihapitiya’s research, launch costs per kilogram have fallen roughly 25-fold between the Space Shuttle era and SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

That’s changed the economics of putting satellites into orbit.

And investors have been paying attention.

→ 2012: Approximately $500 million invested in private space hardware.
→ 2025: Roughly $17 billion.

A 34-fold increase.

And the industry isn’t just attracting more money. It’s attracting more companies.

→ 2000: 32 companies built satellites that reached orbit.
→ 2025: 184 companies.

Nearly six times as many businesses building hardware for space.

Quite a crowded neighborhood for somewhere with so much room.

And the growth extends beyond SpaceX. According to Palihapitiya, private investment in space hardware increased more than 30-fold even when SpaceX is excluded.

Cheaper launches have made business ideas that once seemed financially impractical considerably more realistic.

Satellite communications. Earth observation. Space infrastructure.

The cost of reaching customers from orbit is falling. The number of companies trying to do it is rising.

But there’s another side to this expansion.

→ Building satellites is getting easier to finance.

Finding enough customers willing to pay for their services is a different challenge.

And the industry’s biggest customer may not be who investors expect. ↓

Houston, Who’s Paying?

The space industry has no shortage of ambitious companies.

But when it comes to paying the bills, one customer still dominates.

The government.

Social Capital examined seven companies in its space-stock basket that disclosed their customer revenue.

The findings were rather revealing.

→ 56% of their combined 2025 revenue came directly from governments.

→ Roughly 60% when including private customers whose spending was ultimately government-funded.

So while Wall Street is imagining a booming commercial space economy, much of the industry’s current revenue still depends on public spending.

And that spending has been shifting toward defense.

According to Palihapitiya, the Space Force’s regular budget overtook NASA’s in fiscal 2023.

✱ For fiscal 2027, the Space Force has requested approximately $71.3 billion, including $12.1 billion in additional proposed funding.

! That’s a request, not money Congress has approved.

Still, it illustrates just how important government contracts have become.

But there’s a difference between an industry supported by government demand and one with a large, independent commercial customer base.

And Chamath thinks that distinction could determine the future of the entire space economy.

Is the government helping launch the industry, or will it be paying for the flight indefinitely? ↓

Chips or Concorde?

Chamath has an interesting way of looking at industries built with government money.

He argues they tend to develop in four stages:

→ Stage 1: Governments fund the early technology.
→ Stage 2: Competition brings costs down.
→ Stage 3: Commercial customers start paying.
→ Stage 4: New businesses emerge around the technology.

And according to Chamath, the space industry is still in Stage 2.

History offers two rather different examples of what can happen next.

1) Semiconductors began with substantial government support before developing into an enormous commercial industry.

2) Then there’s Concorde. Britain and France helped finance the supersonic aircraft, but a broad commercial market never materialized.

Only 20 were built.

A technological achievement, certainly.

A mass-market business? Not quite.

And that’s the question hanging over today’s space companies.

Government contracts are helping fund rockets, satellites and infrastructure. Cheaper launches are making new services possible.

But the next stage requires customers willing to pay without government funding behind them.

The technology has already demonstrated it can reach orbit.

Whether the business model can stand on its own is still being tested.

And some companies are already trying to find those customers.

The Next Customer…

Some space companies are already trying to answer Chamath’s billion-dollar question.

→ SpaceX ($SPCX): Reportedly exploring a deal involving Boost Mobile as it works toward offering its own wireless service.

→ AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS): Partnering with traditional carriers to connect ordinary smartphones directly to satellites.

Both are pursuing something the industry needs more of.

Paying commercial customers, not just governments contracts.

✱ And that’s where Chamath’s third stage begins.

There’s plenty to admire about an industry making space more accessible.

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