One Very Expensive Disagreement…
SpaceX shares touched $110.85 this week — 18% below the IPO price, and closing in on a level Morgan Stanley says would mean the market is assigning zero, or even negative, value to the company’s entire AI business.
Grok. Cursor. All of it. Worth nothing, at $100 a share.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas — one of the most bullish analysts covering the stock — says that math is wrong, and that the gap between where the stock trades and where he thinks it should trade is really a referendum on how much investors trust an AI segment they’ve mostly written off.
Tonight’s Starship launch may move the stock. But the bigger question is whether Wall Street is underestimating what comes after.
Here’s the full picture. ⇩
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The Heart of Jonas’s Bull Case:
✱ Jonas isn’t just saying the stock is cheap.
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→ not skepticism about Starlink or launch — those businesses have real, visible revenue
→ but skepticism specifically about whether Grok and Cursor generate enough value to justify their share of a $300 target.
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The Other Story This Week↓
Meanwhile… SpaceX is turning away customers—on purpose.
According to Bloomberg, the company has begun turning away satellite operators looking to book dedicated Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028 and has stopped accepting new reservations for its Falcon 9 rideshare program altogether. It’s also reportedly winding down production of several non-reusable Falcon components, including the rocket’s upper stage.
That’s a remarkable decision. Falcon 9 is the rocket that works today. It’s reliable, profitable, and generates the launch revenue investors already understand. SpaceX is deliberately pulling back from that business to free up people, manufacturing capacity, and capital for Starship—a rocket that is still in testing.
The message is hard to miss: Falcon 9 pays today’s bills. Starship is supposed to pay tomorrow’s.
Choosing tomorrow before it’s fully arrived is a bold bet.
It’s also why tonight’s launch matters far more than a typical test flight.
Every successful mission makes that transition easier.→ Every delay makes it more expensive.
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Despite Everything…
The stock has fallen sharply. Analyst expectations haven’t.
The average Wall Street price target still sits around $232—more than double where SpaceX recently traded. Morgan Stanley remains the most optimistic major voice, but it’s hardly alone. None of the five banks that helped bring SpaceX public have materially backed away from their outlook despite the recent decline.
That disconnect is becoming one of the more interesting parts of the story.
This Isn’t Just A SpaceX Story.
SpaceX has become another casualty of a broader shift in investor sentiment.
Across the market, companies pouring billions into AI infrastructure have faced growing skepticism over when—or if—that spending will produce meaningful returns. The pressure has extended well beyond SpaceX, hitting several of the market’s largest technology names. Microsoft, Amazon, and other Magnificent Seven names have all faced the same skepticism.
Add rising oil prices, inflation concerns, and renewed geopolitical tensions, and it’s been a difficult backdrop for growth stocks in general.
SpaceX has its own company-specific story—but it’s also swimming against a much stronger current.
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