The AI IPO wave is about to begin.
SpaceX is expected to hit public markets first. OpenAI appears to be next. Anthropic is expected to follow shortly after.
At first glance, that may not sound important.
But on Wall Street, timing matters.
Investors don’t have unlimited cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for every opportunity. When a major IPO arrives, many investors sell existing positions, rebalance portfolios, and move money around to make room for the new investment.
That creates an interesting situation.
The first company gets access to the freshest capital.
The second gets whatever remains.
The third has to hope investors still have room left in their portfolios.
Here’s the story. ⇩
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The Starting Order 🏁
1st SpaceX
June 12, 2026 | $1.75 trillion valuation | $75 billion expected raise
The first company through the door.
2nd OpenAI
Expected September 2026 | $852 billion valuation | Confidential filing underway.
Not first. But not last.
3rd Anthropic
Expected October 2026 | $965 billion valuation | Confidential filing submitted June 1.
Potentially the strongest fundamentals of the group — but the latest arrival.
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The oxygen problem 💨
There is only so much capital in the room. SpaceX is about to consume a lot of it.
One of the biggest questions facing the AI IPO wave isn’t valuation.
It’s capacity.
Every dollar that goes into SpaceX has to come from somewhere. Some investors will sell stocks. Others will rotate cash that might have been earmarked for future IPOs.
By the time OpenAI arrives, investors may still be digesting the SpaceX deal.
By the time Anthropic arrives, the process repeats.
That doesn’t mean the market can’t fund all three.
It simply means the company that goes first has an advantage.
As one IPO expert put it: there’s only so much oxygen in the room.
And SpaceX is about to use a lot of it.
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The window is wide open…
The IPO market has been remarkably strong.
Recent offerings have shown investors are willing to embrace new listings — especially large, high-growth companies.
→ Figma surged roughly 250% after its debut.
→ Cerebras gained nearly 70% on its first day.
Investor demand is clearly there.
That enthusiasm is real — but it is not infinite.
When a hot IPO windows close, markets shift. Investor appetite for new listings at sky-high valuations does not stay constant across a six-month window.
The academic evidence: Research on IPO clustering consistently shows that companies listing earlier in an industry wave perform better than those listing later.
The explanation: higher-quality companies with deeper moats tend to go first, triggering a wave of followers. Investors learn to expect this — and price the later arrivals at lower multiples as a result.
For Anthropic, being the better-run company going third is the worst of both worlds.
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Potentially by the end of the month.
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We’ve seen this before.
A similar situation played out in 2019.
Lyft went public first.
Uber followed.
When Lyft struggled after its IPO, investor enthusiasm cooled. Its IPO did not live up to the hype — the stock disappointed after listing. The market was left with a sour taste heading into Uber’s debut.
Uber ultimately had to lower expectations because of Lyft’s poor performance. It debuted at a lower price than hoped. Shares fell further after listing.
The lesson wasn’t that Uber was a bad company. The lesson was that timing matters.
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The counterargument — Facebook 2012
→ Going first is not risk-free either
Facebook went public in 2012 and immediately lost more than half its value in its first three months. The market worried it could not adapt to mobile advertising. The stock was a disaster for early public buyers.
But Facebook still got the benefits of being public — cash from the IPO, employees able to cash out, the credibility of a public listing.
And while the stock struggled, competitors waiting in the wings — including Twitter — remained stuck on the sidelines.
→ The Cost of Waiting
The lesson isn’t that going first is painless. It’s that waiting has a cost, too.
Even after a rough start, Facebook had already raised the money, rewarded employees, and secured its place in the public markets. Eventually, the business caught up to the story.
For OpenAI and Anthropic, the same dynamic applies today.
What to watch 👀
The SpaceX reaction on June 12 sets everything.
1 If SpaceX pops dramatically and holds — investor confidence in the AI IPO wave stays high. OpenAI benefits. Anthropic benefits.
2 If SpaceX pops and then falls — the Lyft/Uber pattern plays out.
But even in that scenario, the Facebook lesson holds: the companies that listed — however painfully — still got the capital, the liquidity, and the credibility.
!!! Watch where SpaceX trades at the end of its first week — not just the opening pop.
Don’t forget to to cast your vote 👇
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