OpenAI is going public. The numbers are extraordinary.
A confidential SEC filing is coming as soon as tomorrow – Friday.
September is the target.
Here is everything you need to understand before the roadshow starts.
The story ⇩
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Burning Cash. Printing Hype.
OpenAI — the company that detonated the internet with ChatGPT in 2022 — is officially preparing to go public.
A confidential SEC filing could arrive as soon as tomorrow – Friday.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reportedly leading the deal.
And if everything stays on schedule, shares could begin trading as early as September.
The numbers attached to it are difficult to even process.
→ Estimated valuation: ~$850 billion
→ Annualized revenue: ~$25 billion
→ Weekly users: ~900 million
→ Infrastructure spending target by 2030: $600 billion
And despite all that growth…
OpenAI is still losing staggering amounts of money.
$25 billion in annualized revenue. $5 billion in losses — in 2024 alone. And the losses are projected to get much, much larger before they get smaller.
The company reportedly burned billions last year alone and internally expects losses to continue for years.
Which creates one of the strangest IPO setups Wall Street has seen in a long time:
OpenAI is growing like the next Microsoft…
while spending like a small country.
The Math
In Q1 this year, OpenAI spent $7.7 billion on AI compute.
That is 77 cents of every dollar that came in the door.
CEO Sam Altman has pledged $600 billion in infrastructure spending by 2030.
The CFO has privately told company leaders they may need to raise more capital — just six weeks after closing a $122 billion round.
The bull case is real: 900 million weekly users, revenue doubling year over year, and the most recognized brand in artificial intelligence.
The bear case is equally real: this is a company that may need decades of public market patience before it turns a structural profit.
That is the bet investors will be asked to make.
Why September specifically?
Confidential filings land a couple of months before the public S-1 — then another month before the actual IPO.
File Friday → public S-1 around July → September debut.
It also fits neatly into the traditional IPO window between Labor Day and Thanksgiving, when institutional money is most active.
Miss that window and you are waiting until 2027.
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But… The Market Does Not Care
Normally, public investors punish companies for losing money at this scale.
OpenAI may become the exception.
Wall Street is treating it more like infrastructure:
→ the foundation layer underneath the future of artificial intelligence.
And in markets, narratives that feel foundational tend to attract extraordinary valuations.
Especially when investors become convinced:
→ AI changes everything
→ compute demand keeps exploding
→ governments cannot afford to fall behind
→ corporations keep spending no matter the cost
That’s how you end up with investors eagerly chasing a company projecting losses through 2029.
The market is not buying current profitability.
It is buying ownership in what investors believe could become the operating system for the AI era.
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The $100 Billion Buyer Nobody Talks About
Another force quietly sitting underneath this IPO:
Passive index funds.
Nasdaq recently adjusted its rules so major new listings can potentially enter the Nasdaq 100 much faster than before.
New listings can now join the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 days — and they get an index weighting of 3x the value of shares floated. That means the trillions of dollars sitting in passive index funds have to buy in, at whatever the market is charging.
There is no discretion. No waiting for a better price. If the stock is up 100% on IPO week, index funds have to buy.
That matters enormously. Once a company enters major indexes, trillions of dollars in passive funds suddenly have to buy shares automatically.
That creates one of the strangest feedback loops in modern markets:
→ the bigger and more hyped an IPO becomes, → the more forced buying pressure it can eventually attract.
And if OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic all eventually enter indexes around similar periods…
→ the rotation inside big tech could become enormous.
Who gets sold to fund all this buying? Someone has to.
JPMorgan estimates that SpaceX alone — at $2T with 50% float — forces passive investors to dump $95 billion of existing big tech stocks.
Add OpenAI and Anthropic to the queue and the forced rotation becomes one of the largest mechanical selling events in market history.
Which means the AI boom may eventually start cannibalizing older mega-cap winners to make room for newer ones.
Meanwhile, The Competition Is Getting Real
OpenAI still dominates consumer AI mindshare.
But the market underneath AI is becoming brutally competitive.
1 Anthropic is growing rapidly in enterprise and coding. It is reportedly on track to hit $10.9 billion in Q2 — more than doubling in a single quarter.
2 Google is integrating Gemini across its ecosystem.
3 Meta keeps spending aggressively.
4 Amazon is building custom AI chips.
5 And Nvidia still controls the infrastructure layer powering much of the industry itself.
The AI trade is no longer a single-company story. It’s becoming a full-scale economic ecosystem.
That’s why these IPOs matter so much.
And the timing is impossible to ignore
The IPO process accelerated almost simultaneously with SpaceX unveiling its own prospectus.
What to actually watch? The SpaceX IPO reaction. SpaceX prices June 11, trades June 12. How the market absorbs that listing — and whether the “fast entry” mechanics create chaos or calm — is the dress rehearsal for everything that follows.
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