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The Question That Aged Faster Than Expected

Last week, we asked you a question:

When does gold hit $5,000?

About 25% of you said: “By the end of January.”

Which sounded bold.
Possibly optimistic.
Maybe even slightly unhinged.

Because today is January 26th.

That means one of two things is true:

→ Either a few of you own a very powerful crystal ball.
→ Or the market just decided to move a lot faster than anyone expected.

Either way, the poll captured something real.

When one out of every four readers even entertains a move that sounded crazy a few weeks ago, it’s usually not random.

And over the weekend, the market caught up.

Gold crossed $5,000 per ounce for the first time in history.

What Just Happened

Just a quick pulse on what’s keeping markets caffeinated this week:

→ Powell & Co. (Wednesday): The Fed is expected to keep rates exactly where they are after cutting three times late last year.
Translation: no fireworks, but everyone will be listening closely to how confident (or flexible) Powell sounds about what comes next.

source: CME Group

→ Shutdown roulette (Friday): Washington is playing another round of “will the government shut down?” Funding runs out at the end of the week, and lawmakers are still negotiating.

→ Mixed signals: Some Fed officials want to stay patient, others think more cuts are coming. Nobody fully agrees. Markets “love” that.

Which helps explain what happened next. 👇

Or When Gold Crossed a Psychological Line

Over the weekend, gold pushed past $5,000 per ounce for the first time in history.

Gold treated $5,000 less like a ceiling and more like a speed bump.

The move capped off a stunning run:

• Up ~64% in 2025

• Up ~18% already this year

Silver followed closely behind as retail attention spilled over.

That “slightly unhinged” poll answer suddenly feels a lot more reasonable.

How Investors Are Actually Buying Gold

source:tradingview

When people hear “gold rally,” they usually picture one thing:

Someone buying shiny bars in a vault.

In reality, gold demand flows through multiple channels — and each tells a different story about investor behavior.

What makes this rally different is that all of them are active at once.

Lane 1 Central Banks (The Floor Builders)

Central banks buy gold for one primary reason:

Neutrality.

Gold can’t be sanctioned. It can’t be frozen. It doesn’t belong to any government.

Since global reserves were weaponized in recent years, many countries quietly reassessed what “safe assets” actually mean.

Official gold accumulation has accelerated — particularly among emerging markets diversifying away from dollar exposure.

Recent data shows central banks buying roughly 60 tons per month.

This is slow money.
Strategic money.
Policy-level money.

And it creates structural demand underneath them.

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Lane 2 ETFs (The Portfolio Signal)

Most private investors access gold through ETFs.

Why?

→ Instant liquidity
→ Easy portfolio integration
→ No storage friction
→ Tradable inside brokerage accounts

When macro uncertainty rises, ETF flows tend to react first because reallocating capital takes minutes, not quarters.

In 2025 alone, gold ETFs absorbed roughly $89 billion in inflows, one of the largest waves on record.

Lane 3 Bars & Coins (The Trust Trade)

Some investors still prefer physical ownership.

No counterparty risk.
No financial plumbing.
No leverage.

Just direct exposure.

High prices have slowed jewelry demand in some regions, but small bars and coins remain popular in markets where wealth preservation matters more than aesthetics.

Lane 4 Futures & Traders (The Accelerator)

Short-term traders express views through futures markets.

→ Leverage magnifies moves.
→ Momentum feeds on itself.
→ Volatility expands quickly.

This lane doesn’t create trends. It amplifies them once alignment appears elsewhere.

When institutional flows, sovereign buying, and retail demand align — futures simply turn up the volume.

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When demand shows up across all four lanes at once, price compresses upward.

That’s what we’re seeing now.

Gold’s move through $5,000 didn’t happen because multiple layers of capital reacted to the same underlying pressure.

Which brings us to the real driver.

WHY THIS IS HAPPENING NOW

The catalyst is currencies.

→ The U.S. dollar has slid to its weakest levels since 2021.
→ The Japanese yen has been volatile enough to spark renewed intervention chatter.
→ FX markets are starting to show stress.

When currency confidence weakens, investors instinctively seek assets that can’t be printed.

So… about that poll.

Last Wednesday, “end of January” sounded like a spicy take.

Today, it suddenly sounds like decent timing.

Which is a nice reminder that markets have a talent for humbling both the skeptics and the optimists — often at the same time.

We’ll let the calendar finish the story.

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