Pretty, Pretty Bullish…

A new $220 price target is bullish. The five-year math gets considerably more ambitious.

SpaceX got another vote of confidence from Wall Street this week.

Pivotal Research slapped a $220 price target on the stock — roughly 50% above where shares had been trading.

Pretty bullish.

Then we stretched the timeline to 2031.

That’s where the numbers start to spread out — a lot.

Depending on how fast SpaceX grows — and what investors are willing to pay for that growth — the five-year picture can look remarkably different.

So, we ran the numbers. ⇩

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The Big “If.”

✱ Pivotal Research initiated coverage on SpaceX this week with a Buy rating and a rather ambitious number attached:

The big “if” behind the $220 target?

Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak, the man behind that $220 target, is essentially betting on one thing: rapid reusability.

If Starship can fly frequently enough, the cost of reaching orbit could start to look less like traditional spaceflight and more like moving freight.

At those prices, things that are prohibitively expensive today could suddenly start to make economic sense.

That “if” is doing quite a bit of work.

The $220 case hinges on Starship eventually cutting the cost of reaching orbit by roughly 90%.

And to get there, Wlodarczak assumes each Starship could eventually fly as many as 50 times.

Pull that off, and cheaper launches could do more than improve SpaceX’s existing economics. They could make entirely new businesses viable — from putting AI infrastructure in orbit to expanding what Starlink can do.

But before we get too far into the future, there’s one fairly important detail:

→ Starship still hasn’t flown commercially.

Its next test flight is expected later this month, while commercial payloads could begin this year — though 2027 is considered more likely.

So the $220 case ultimately comes down to something surprisingly simple:

The rocket has to prove the math. ↓

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Wall Street Is Pretty Sold.

Pivotal isn’t exactly alone here.
That’s an unusually crowded bull camp.↓

Across Wall Street, the average SpaceX price target now sits around $226 — actually a touch higher than Pivotal’s new $220 call.

The stock itself has been considerably less decisive.

Since its $135 June IPO, SpaceX has traded as high as $225 and below $105, yet recently sat only about 10% above its IPO price.

Plenty of movement. Not much distance.

And apparently, Wall Street thinks there’s plenty more to come.

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Meanwhile, Back On Earth.

→ The $220 target is built around what SpaceX could become.

The business today is already growing quickly — just from a much smaller base.

Underneath those numbers, the growth is coming from several places.

→ Space revenue rose 29%.
→ Starlink grew 66%.
→ And AI sales jumped 247%.

The spending is moving quickly too. SpaceX poured $15.8 billion into capital expenditures during the quarter, while its AI business alone posted a $1.3 billion operating loss.

In other words, SpaceX is growing like a company in a hurry — and spending like one, too.

Which brings us to the next part of the valuation.↓

Big Valuation. Smaller Revenue.

So SpaceX currently generates well under half Tesla’s revenue, despite carrying a considerably larger market valuation.

That doesn’t necessarily mean SpaceX is too expensive.

It means investors are paying heavily for what comes next.

✱ And Wall Street expects quite a lot to come next: revenue is projected to grow another 137% in 2027.

Now, About 2031.

This is where the numbers get considerably less certain.

Starting with an estimated $39 billion in 2026 revenue, two long-term growth scenarios give us very different versions of SpaceX five years from now:

1 30% annual growth ~$145B – 2031 revenue

2 50% annual growth ~$296B – 2031 revenue

Source: Motley Fool / Jennifer Saibil · September 9, 2026

Neither is a forecast.

They’re simply scenarios — a way of seeing what different assumptions could mean for the business.

And revenue growth is only half the equation.

Then Comes The Valuation.

Let’s take the 50% growth scenario.

Even if SpaceX reaches roughly $296 billion in revenue by 2031, we still have to guess what investors might be willing to pay for each dollar of those sales.

Change that assumption, and our hypothetical $5,000 changes quite a bit:

1 50% growth + ~35× sales
$5,000 → ~$25,000

2 50% growth + 20× sales
$5,000 → ~$15,000

3 30% growth + 20× sales
$5,000 → ~$7,250

Source: Motley Fool / Jennifer Saibil · September 9, 2026.
Illustrative scenarios based on the assumptions above, not forecasts or Trading Lessons recommendations.

Notice the first two.

They assume the same 50% annual growth. The difference is simply how much investors are willing to pay for SpaceX in 2031.

Lesson Of The Day:

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