This story starts at $4,373…

Gold has had quite the run this year.

But this week, it was the pullback that caught traders’ attention.

After rallying from $4,048.70 in July to $4,755 in August, gold futures started giving some of it back.

And apparently, half was enough.

Gold fell to $4,369.70 before buyers stepped in.

The level traders were watching? $4,373.30 — the 50% retracement of that July-to-August rally.

Which got us wondering:

Why does halfway matter so much to traders?

Especially when gold has now turned there twice.

So, we took a look.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by DealMaker*

An IPO Oversubscribed by 8,000x Could Lift Robotics Stocks

Robotics stocks are suddenly in the spotlight after a recent robotics IPO was oversubscribed by 8,000X.

Experts say the frenzy could reprice robotics stocks everywhere. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of everyday investors like you have found a different way to participate in the robotics boom: a private company named Miso Robotics. And its stock price is about to change on 9/17.

Miso’s Flippy Fry Station AI robot already boosts profits up to 4X for brands like White Castle. Miso just added new big-name customers like Jersey Mike’s, Cinnabon, Auntie Anne’s, and more. And now, Flippy just entered a major college campus, an NBA arena, and a national burger chain.

With the $1T fast-food industry modernizing fast, Miso is making big moves to create the new “operating system” for modern restaurants. It even just acquired the IP of a pizza-robot pioneer once valued at $2B+ and backed by SoftBank, growing Miso’s patent portfolio 10X overnight to over 300.

Industry powerhouse Ecolab invested. Now’s your chance. But hurry.
Invest in Miso at $5.48/share by September 17.

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com

Right on Cue↓

The “Halfway-Back” Concept↓

Why traders watch the exact midpoint of a move?

1|  After a big price move, traders often wait for the price to retrace roughly 50% of that move before acting — not because 50% is magic, but because it’s a level where the potential reward relative to risk suddenly looks attractive.

2| The logic: enter a trade right at that level, and you can exit quickly with a small loss if the price breaks through — or ride a genuine reversal if it holds.

3| Enough traders watch these levels that they can become self-fulfilling — a cluster of buy or sell orders sitting at the same price, waiting.

One catch: 50% isn’t a magic number.

Gold could have sailed straight through the level and made the whole setup irrelevant. What traders care about isn’t simply hitting the halfway mark — it’s what happens once price gets there.

This time, buyers showed up.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by DealMaker*

An IPO Oversubscribed by 8,000x Could Lift Robotics Stocks

Robotics stocks are suddenly in the spotlight after a recent robotics IPO was oversubscribed by 8,000X.

Experts say the frenzy could reprice robotics stocks everywhere. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of everyday investors like you have found a different way to participate in the robotics boom: a private company named Miso Robotics. And its stock price is about to change on 9/17.

Miso’s Flippy Fry Station AI robot already boosts profits up to 4X for brands like White Castle. Miso just added new big-name customers like Jersey Mike’s, Cinnabon, Auntie Anne’s, and more. And now, Flippy just entered a major college campus, an NBA arena, and a national burger chain.

With the $1T fast-food industry modernizing fast, Miso is making big moves to create the new “operating system” for modern restaurants. It even just acquired the IP of a pizza-robot pioneer once valued at $2B+ and backed by SoftBank, growing Miso’s patent portfolio 10X overnight to over 300.

Industry powerhouse Ecolab invested. Now’s your chance. But hurry.
Invest in Miso at $5.48/share by September 17.

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com

The 50% Level.

Gold has now tested the halfway mark from both directions.

On the way up → $4,778.70
That was halfway between gold’s January peak and July low. Gold rallied to $4,755 on Aug. 25, came within $24 of the level, then reversed.

On the way down → $4,373.30
That was halfway between the July low and August high. Gold fell to $4,369.70 this week — just $3.60 away — before bouncing.

Sellers halfway up. Buyers halfway down.

✱ And there was another clue on that first reversal: RSI had already moved into overbought territory as gold approached $4,778.70 — suggesting the rally was getting stretched just as it reached the level traders were watching.

Gold’s Been… Moody

Technical levels can help explain where traders buy and sell.
They don’t explain why so many buyers are interested in gold in the first place.

Goldman Sachs thinks part of that answer is sitting inside the world’s central banks.

→ Goldman’s year-end 2026 gold target: $4,900
→ Gold’s rally from its mid-July low through Aug. 25: +15%
→ Goldman’s projected pace of central-bank gold buying in 2026: 50 tonnes/month

And that last number may be the important one.

Before 2022, central banks bought an average of roughly 17 tonnes of gold per month.

Goldman estimates they’ll average around 50 tonnes per month in 2026.

But by June, its three-month adjusted estimate had accelerated to a pace of roughly 100 tonnes per month — up from 66 tonnes in May and nearly 6× the pre-2022 average, with China the largest buyer.

That shift accelerated after 2022, when the freezing of Russian central-bank assets highlighted one of the risks of holding reserves in foreign currencies. Gold, particularly when held domestically, is harder for another country to freeze or sanction.

Goldman now sees elevated central-bank buying as a multi-year trend, as countries diversify their reserves against geopolitical and financial risks.

Why Gold’s Swings Have Gotten Sharper?

The options market.

Goldman points to growing demand for gold call options — essentially bets that gold will move higher.

✱ When gold approaches popular option prices, the dealers who sold those calls may need to buy more gold to protect themselves.

→ Gold rises → dealers buy → that buying can push gold even higher.

And on the way down, the process can reverse:

→ Gold falls → dealers sell their hedges → that selling can add to the decline.

In other words, a move can start feeding itself.

Goldman’s $4,900 year-end target doesn’t include this effect, so the options market could potentially add more upside — along with sharper swings getting there.

Source: Goldman Sachs Research · August 28, 2026

Lesson Of The Day:

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Out With The Old.

Stanley Druckenmiller has never been particularly sentimental about stocks.

His latest 13F is a pretty good reminder.

The legendary investor spent Q2 reshuffling his portfolio — opening dozens of new positions, walking away from nearly two dozen others, and making some surprisingly big changes along the way.

For someone who averaged roughly 30% a year over three decades without a losing year, it’s a lot of changing his mind in three months.

And buried inside all that buying and selling is a pretty interesting picture of where Druckenmiller sees opportunity now.

So, we went through the whole portfolio.

Let’s see what survived the shuffle.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

Warren Buffett’s Parting Gift is About to Pay Off

Finally retired, Buffett handed the reins of Berkshire Hathaway to his hand-picked successor. But on his way out the door, Buffett quietly made one last move in a corner of the energy market Wall Street has all but ignored.

Whitney Tilson, a devout follower of Buffet and the analyst CNBC called “The Prophet”, says every move Buffett made upon his exit is pointing to an energy surge that’s about to catch the entire market off guard.
And the window to move ahead of it is closing fast.
 

Out With The Chips, In With… AI?

Druckenmiller didn’t exactly leave the AI trade.

He rearranged it.

During Q2, he sold out of Broadcom and Micron, while Nvidia — one of his most successful AI bets — remained noticeably absent.

But the money didn’t leave AI.

Instead, Druckenmiller added or opened positions in Amazon, Alphabet, Taiwan Semiconductor and AMD.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Paradigm*

Altucher: Inside This Case is Elon’s Next Major Wealth Boom

James Altucher – the man who predicted the rise of SpaceX years in advance – has just released a shocking new prediction about Elon Musk.
 
Inside, he explains why he thinks Elon’s latest project will be even BIGGER than SpaceX – and create up to 1.8 million new millionaires over the coming years starting Sept. 25th.
 
The pieces behind all of it, he says, are sitting inside this case.
 
Click here now for all the details.
 

The Stock He Says He Regrets Selling…

— and still won’t buy 🤔

✱ Druckenmiller admits he sold Nvidia too soon.

Druckenmiller bought Nvidia in late 2022, rode the AI boom for hundreds of millions of dollars, and sold the entire position by 2024.

He later said he’d consider buying Nvidia again if the valuation came down.

And it did.

Nvidia briefly fell to around 17× forward earnings earlier this year — considerably cheaper than where it had traded during much of the AI boom.

Druckenmiller still didn’t buy it.

Instead, Q2 brought a new chip name into the portfolio:AMD $AMD ( ▼ 0.56% ).

But not exactly with both feet.

72,900 shares. Just 0.8% of the portfolio.

So AMD doesn’t look much like a replacement for his old Nvidia bet.
If anything, it makes the rest of the portfolio more interesting.

Because while Druckenmiller remains cautious around the chipmakers, he’s putting considerably more money into the companies buying, designing and manufacturing the infrastructure around them.

And that brings us to Amazon, Alphabet and TSMC. ↓

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

OpenAI and Anthropic Trigger “Pre-IPO” Opportunity

IPO insider Jason Bodner reveals three companies primed to soar thanks to OpenAI and Anthropic’s upcoming IPOs.

The best part? You can invest in them right now before OpenAI and Anthropic go public.

Click here to find out how 

Buying the Buyers.

Why he moved from Broadcom into Amazon and Alphabet instead?

At first, the move seems a little backwards.

Broadcom  $AVGO ( ▼ 0.66% ) makes the custom AI chips that companies like Alphabet use. So if AI spending keeps climbing, owning Broadcom would seem like a pretty straightforward way to benefit.

But the balance of power may be shifting.

The biggest AI spenders increasingly want more control over the chips going into their own data centers — including who designs them and who makes them.

→ Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 0.02% ) is a good example.

CEO Andy Jassy said the largest number of new chips entering Amazon’s data centers this year will be its own Trainium chips, rather than Nvidia GPUs or other off-the-shelf alternatives.

→ Alphabet $GOOG ( ▲ 0.53% ) is doing something similar.

It has worked with Broadcom for years on its custom TPUs, but recently added Marvell for specialized inference chips.

That gives the hyperscalers something valuable: options.

They can use Nvidia GPUs, develop their own custom chips, or spread production across multiple partners depending on what works best.

So rather than betting on which chipmaker wins the next round of AI spending, Druckenmiller is putting more money into the companies making those spending decisions in the first place.

And The Price Wasn’t Bad Either↓

That puts a 4.1-turn gap between the two — with Alphabet trading at roughly a 20% lower earnings multiple than Amazon.

→ Both companies are spending enormous sums building AI infrastructure, both have massive cloud businesses, and both are developing their own custom chips.

→ Both were trading well below their historical valuations — largely because investors were worried about how much cash the AI buildout was swallowing.

And, as it turns out, quite a lot.

That uncertainty is part of what has pushed their valuations down.

The Bill↓.

Here’s what that AI buildout is costing.

Those cheaper valuations suddenly make a little more sense.

Amazon burned $7.6 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months.
Alphabet went negative for the first time in its history as a public company last quarter.

Building AI infrastructure is expensive.

But there’s another rather large number on the other side of the ledger:

→ $514B — Alphabet remaining performance obligations

→ $496B — Amazon backlog

That’s nearly $1 trillion in contracted business between them.

For now, investors can see the bill. Druckenmiller appears to be betting on the payoff.

Lesson Of The Day:

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Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

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Out With The Old.

Stanley Druckenmiller has never been particularly sentimental about stocks.

His latest 13F is a pretty good reminder.

The legendary investor spent Q2 reshuffling his portfolio — opening dozens of new positions, walking away from nearly two dozen others, and making some surprisingly big changes along the way.

For someone who averaged roughly 30% a year over three decades without a losing year, it’s a lot of changing his mind in three months.

And buried inside all that buying and selling is a pretty interesting picture of where Druckenmiller sees opportunity now.

So, we went through the whole portfolio.

Let’s see what survived the shuffle.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

Warren Buffett’s Parting Gift is About to Pay Off

Finally retired, Buffett handed the reins of Berkshire Hathaway to his hand-picked successor. But on his way out the door, Buffett quietly made one last move in a corner of the energy market Wall Street has all but ignored.

Whitney Tilson, a devout follower of Buffet and the analyst CNBC called “The Prophet”, says every move Buffett made upon his exit is pointing to an energy surge that’s about to catch the entire market off guard.
And the window to move ahead of it is closing fast.
 

Out With The Chips, In With… AI?

Druckenmiller didn’t exactly leave the AI trade.

He rearranged it.

During Q2, he sold out of Broadcom and Micron, while Nvidia — one of his most successful AI bets — remained noticeably absent.

But the money didn’t leave AI.

Instead, Druckenmiller added or opened positions in Amazon, Alphabet, Taiwan Semiconductor and AMD.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Paradigm*

Altucher: Inside This Case is Elon’s Next Major Wealth Boom

James Altucher – the man who predicted the rise of SpaceX years in advance – has just released a shocking new prediction about Elon Musk.
 
Inside, he explains why he thinks Elon’s latest project will be even BIGGER than SpaceX – and create up to 1.8 million new millionaires over the coming years starting Sept. 25th.
 
The pieces behind all of it, he says, are sitting inside this case.
 
Click here now for all the details.
 

The Stock He Says He Regrets Selling…

— and still won’t buy 🤔

✱ Druckenmiller admits he sold Nvidia too soon.

Druckenmiller bought Nvidia in late 2022, rode the AI boom for hundreds of millions of dollars, and sold the entire position by 2024.

He later said he’d consider buying Nvidia again if the valuation came down.

And it did.

Nvidia briefly fell to around 17× forward earnings earlier this year — considerably cheaper than where it had traded during much of the AI boom.

Druckenmiller still didn’t buy it.

Instead, Q2 brought a new chip name into the portfolio:AMD $AMD ( ▼ 0.56% ).

But not exactly with both feet.

72,900 shares. Just 0.8% of the portfolio.

So AMD doesn’t look much like a replacement for his old Nvidia bet.
If anything, it makes the rest of the portfolio more interesting.

Because while Druckenmiller remains cautious around the chipmakers, he’s putting considerably more money into the companies buying, designing and manufacturing the infrastructure around them.

And that brings us to Amazon, Alphabet and TSMC. ↓

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

OpenAI and Anthropic Trigger “Pre-IPO” Opportunity

IPO insider Jason Bodner reveals three companies primed to soar thanks to OpenAI and Anthropic’s upcoming IPOs.

The best part? You can invest in them right now before OpenAI and Anthropic go public.

Click here to find out how 

Buying the Buyers.

Why he moved from Broadcom into Amazon and Alphabet instead?

At first, the move seems a little backwards.

Broadcom  $AVGO ( ▼ 0.66% ) makes the custom AI chips that companies like Alphabet use. So if AI spending keeps climbing, owning Broadcom would seem like a pretty straightforward way to benefit.

But the balance of power may be shifting.

The biggest AI spenders increasingly want more control over the chips going into their own data centers — including who designs them and who makes them.

→ Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 0.02% ) is a good example.

CEO Andy Jassy said the largest number of new chips entering Amazon’s data centers this year will be its own Trainium chips, rather than Nvidia GPUs or other off-the-shelf alternatives.

→ Alphabet $GOOG ( ▲ 0.53% ) is doing something similar.

It has worked with Broadcom for years on its custom TPUs, but recently added Marvell for specialized inference chips.

That gives the hyperscalers something valuable: options.

They can use Nvidia GPUs, develop their own custom chips, or spread production across multiple partners depending on what works best.

So rather than betting on which chipmaker wins the next round of AI spending, Druckenmiller is putting more money into the companies making those spending decisions in the first place.

And The Price Wasn’t Bad Either↓

That puts a 4.1-turn gap between the two — with Alphabet trading at roughly a 20% lower earnings multiple than Amazon.

→ Both companies are spending enormous sums building AI infrastructure, both have massive cloud businesses, and both are developing their own custom chips.

→ Both were trading well below their historical valuations — largely because investors were worried about how much cash the AI buildout was swallowing.

And, as it turns out, quite a lot.

That uncertainty is part of what has pushed their valuations down.

The Bill↓.

Here’s what that AI buildout is costing.

Those cheaper valuations suddenly make a little more sense.

Amazon burned $7.6 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months.
Alphabet went negative for the first time in its history as a public company last quarter.

Building AI infrastructure is expensive.

But there’s another rather large number on the other side of the ledger:

→ $514B — Alphabet remaining performance obligations

→ $496B — Amazon backlog

That’s nearly $1 trillion in contracted business between them.

For now, investors can see the bill. Druckenmiller appears to be betting on the payoff.

Lesson Of The Day:

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Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

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The Farm of Omaha.

Of all the investments Warren Buffett could use to explain investing, he picked two rather ordinary ones.

A 400-acre farm in Nebraska.

And a retail property next to NYU.

Neither was a stock. Neither required some brilliant new technology or complicated financial model.

Yet Buffett said both should remain “solid and satisfactory” investments not only for his lifetime, but for his children and grandchildren — with income that would probably keep growing for decades.

That’s quite a vote of confidence from a man with a fairly decent investing résumé.

So what made these two investments so durable?

The answer starts with $280,000, 400 acres of farmland, and some surprisingly simple math⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*

Warren Buffett’s Parting Gift is About to Pay Off

Finally retired, Buffett handed the reins of Berkshire Hathaway to his hand-picked successor. But on his way out the door, Buffett quietly made one last move in a corner of the energy market Wall Street has all but ignored.

Whitney Tilson, a devout follower of Buffet and the analyst CNBC called “The Prophet”, says every move Buffett made upon his exit is pointing to an energy surge that’s about to catch the entire market off guard.
And the window to move ahead of it is closing fast.
 

1 The Farm.

Buffett was pretty open about his agricultural credentials:

“I knew nothing about operating a farm.”

Fortunately, he didn’t need to.

His son understood farming, so the two worked through the numbers that actually mattered — how much corn and soybeans the land could produce, what it cost to operate, and what was left over.

The math put the farm’s normalized return at roughly 10%.

Buffett also figured productivity would improve and crop prices would rise over time.

Both did.

By 2014, the farm was earning 3× as much and was worth 5× what Buffett had paid.

The lesson: Buffett wasn’t betting on what someone might pay for the farm years later. He was looking at what the land could produce today — and whether that production justified the $280,000 price tag.

The long-term case helped too.

People still need to eat, which gives farmland unusually durable demand. And when food prices rise with inflation, farmland values have historically tended to rise with them.

The appreciation was nice.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Paradigm*

Altucher: Inside This Case is Elon’s Next Major Wealth Boom

James Altucher – the man who predicted the rise of SpaceX years in advance – has just released a shocking new prediction about Elon Musk.
 
Inside, he explains why he thinks Elon’s latest project will be even BIGGER than SpaceX – and create up to 1.8 million new millionaires over the coming years starting Sept. 25th.
 
The pieces behind all of it, he says, are sitting inside this case.
 
Click here now for all the details.
 

2 Seven Years Later

In 1993, Buffett found himself in familiar territory.

Another bubble had burst. This time, it was commercial real estate.

A retail property next to NYU had landed with the Resolution Trust Corporation, and the numbers caught Buffett’s attention.

The starting yield was roughly 10% — without using any debt.

But there was more hiding underneath.

The property had been poorly managed, with stores sitting vacant. Filling that space alone could increase the income without requiring much else to go right.

✱ And then Buffett spotted something even better.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*

OpenAI and Anthropic Trigger “Pre-IPO” Opportunity

IPO insider Jason Bodner reveals three companies primed to soar thanks to OpenAI and Anthropic’s upcoming IPOs.

The best part? You can invest in them right now before OpenAI and Anthropic go public.

Click here to find out how

The $5 Rent?

→ Largest tenant — ~20% of the property — $5/sq. ft.
Rent locked in under an old lease

→ Other tenants, average — $70/sq. ft.
Roughly 14× higher

And that’s where the upside got considerably more interesting.

The property’s largest tenant occupied roughly 20% of the space — while paying just $5 per square foot.

Everyone else averaged around $70.

The catch was time: the bargain lease still had nine years left.

But Buffett wasn’t exactly in a hurry.

Once it expired, he expected bringing that space closer to market rates to deliver what he called “a major boost to earnings.”

Then there was one part of the investment that required considerably less math:

“NYU wasn’t going anywhere.”

And Then the Rent Checks Arrived↓

The investment did considerably more than work out.

Annual distributions eventually grew to more than 35% of Buffett’s original investment. And two refinancings — in 1996 and 1999 — produced additional distributions totaling more than 150% of the original equity.

In other words, Buffett had already received more than his initial investment back through the refinancings alone — while still owning his stake in the property.

After years of collecting distributions from a property he’d analyzed, bought and held, Buffett wrote:

“I’ve yet to view the property.”

Apparently, the numbers had already told him enough.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here.

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Heads Burry Wins. Tails?

Michael Burry is short Nvidia.

But days before earnings, he did something that seems to point in the exact opposite direction.

He bought Nvidia calls.

Then he made things even more confusing by describing the stock as “wildly undervalued.”

Which got us wondering:

How can you think Nvidia is undervalued, bet on it going up — and still be short the stock?

The obvious answer would be that Burry changed his mind.

He didn’t.

In fact, the calls only make sense because of the much bigger bet sitting on the other side.

And Burry himself described what came next as essentially “a coin flip.”

So, we unpacked the trade.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by DealMaker*

An 8,000X Oversubscription Could Lift Robotics Stocks

Robotics stocks are having a moment, after a recent robotics IPO was oversubscribed by 8,000X.

Experts say the frenzy could reprice robotics stocks everywhere. Meanwhile, 44k+ everyday investors like you found a different way into this boom: a private-stage company named Miso Robotics. 

Miso’s Flippy Fry Station AI robot already boosts profits up to 4X for brands like White Castle. A recent acquisition added new big-name customers like Jersey Mike’s, Cinnabon, Auntie Anne’s, and more. And now, Miso just entered a college campus, NBA arena, and a national burger chain.

With the $1T fast-food industry modernizing fast, Miso is still making big moves in 2026. It just acquired the IP of a pizza-robotics pioneer once valued at $2B+ and backed by SoftBank, growing Miso’s patent portfolio 10X overnight to over 300.

Industry powerhouse Ecolab invested. Now’s your chance to claim a stake. Invest in Miso at $5.48/share by September 17.

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com

A Little Long, A Lot Short…

“I Am Not Playing For Gains Here”

Burry’s own explanation for buying Nvidia calls while remaining short. ↓

→ 3.5–4% – Portfolio allocated to Nvidia calls.

→ 21%+ – Total short exposure, excluding puts
The bigger picture remains decidedly bearish: more than one-fifth of the portfolio was positioned short across individual stocks.

→ +8% – Nvidia’s move the day after earnings
The exact scenario the calls were there to protect against. Nvidia surged 8.7% on Aug. 27 after its earnings and outlook reinforced confidence in AI spending.

The Trade, Minus the Jargon↓

On paper, Burry’s positioning looks strange:

→ He’s short Nvidia — betting the stock eventually falls.

→ He owns puts — giving him even more downside exposure.

→ Then, before earnings, he bought calls — which benefit if Nvidia rises.

Why bet both ways?

Because Burry wasn’t buying the calls to turn bullish. He was buying protection against being wrong in the short term.

If Nvidia ripped higher after earnings, the calls could soften some of the damage to his much larger bearish position.

And that’s essentially what happened: Nvidia jumped 8%.

Burry said he “would not have made the trade at all” without the short already sitting on the other side.

In other words: The calls weren’t a change of heart. They were insurance.

✱ Hedge your expectations. Burry admits this playbook isn’t foolproof. His previous attempts to hedge around Nvidia earnings with short-dated options have delivered “inconsistent results.”

! It’s protection, not a guarantee.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by DealMaker*

An 8,000X Oversubscription Could Lift Robotics Stocks

Robotics stocks are having a moment, after a recent robotics IPO was oversubscribed by 8,000X.

Experts say the frenzy could reprice robotics stocks everywhere. Meanwhile, 44k+ everyday investors like you found a different way into this boom: a private-stage company named Miso Robotics. 

Miso’s Flippy Fry Station AI robot already boosts profits up to 4X for brands like White Castle. A recent acquisition added new big-name customers like Jersey Mike’s, Cinnabon, Auntie Anne’s, and more. And now, Miso just entered a college campus, NBA arena, and a national burger chain.

With the $1T fast-food industry modernizing fast, Miso is still making big moves in 2026. It just acquired the IP of a pizza-robotics pioneer once valued at $2B+ and backed by SoftBank, growing Miso’s patent portfolio 10X overnight to over 300.

Industry powerhouse Ecolab invested. Now’s your chance to claim a stake. Invest in Miso at $5.48/share by September 17.

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com

The Short List Gets Longer.

See the pattern?

Burry added to shorts in Oracle, Palantir and Nebius — while putting more money behind very different bets in Birkenstock and Freddie Mac.

It makes Nvidia harder to dismiss as a one-stock bearish call.

It fits into the broader “perimeter of debt” thesis we covered earlier this month: Burry’s concern that the risks surrounding the AI spending boom extend well beyond Nvidia itself.

✱ He is short more of the AI trade. Long elsewhere.

Undervalued…

Burry called the stock “wildly undervalued” based on its earnings power and the “monopoly rents” he believes Nvidia can command.

So… why short it?

He argues Nvidia “will not distribute enough to shareholders” — instead continuing to pour capital back into the AI buildout, potentially “into and through the top of the bubble.”

And in Burry’s valuation, even Nvidia’s enormous earnings power still doesn’t justify where the stock trades today.

The distinction: Nvidia can be cheap relative to the profits it generates — and still expensive relative to what Burry thinks shareholders will ultimately get back.

And Then There’s Cisco.

Burry has been building this argument since at least May, when he drew a comparison between Nvidia’s AI financing arrangements and Cisco during the dot-com boom.

His concern is that reported revenue doesn’t necessarily tell you where the financial risk ultimately sits.

Fully disclosed revenue can still be tied to a system where enormous amounts of capital and debt are circulating between companies buying, financing and building AI infrastructure.

It’s the same “perimeter of debt” argument we covered earlier this month — only this time, Nvidia sits much closer to the center of it.

Lesson Of The Day:

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Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

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Heads Burry Wins. Tails?

Michael Burry is short Nvidia.

But days before earnings, he did something that seems to point in the exact opposite direction.

He bought Nvidia calls.

Then he made things even more confusing by describing the stock as “wildly undervalued.”

Which got us wondering:

How can you think Nvidia is undervalued, bet on it going up — and still be short the stock?

The obvious answer would be that Burry changed his mind.

He didn’t.

In fact, the calls only make sense because of the much bigger bet sitting on the other side.

And Burry himself described what came next as essentially “a coin flip.”

So, we unpacked the trade.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by DealMaker*

An 8,000X Oversubscription Could Lift Robotics Stocks

Robotics stocks are having a moment, after a recent robotics IPO was oversubscribed by 8,000X.

Experts say the frenzy could reprice robotics stocks everywhere. Meanwhile, 44k+ everyday investors like you found a different way into this boom: a private-stage company named Miso Robotics. 

Miso’s Flippy Fry Station AI robot already boosts profits up to 4X for brands like White Castle. A recent acquisition added new big-name customers like Jersey Mike’s, Cinnabon, Auntie Anne’s, and more. And now, Miso just entered a college campus, NBA arena, and a national burger chain.

With the $1T fast-food industry modernizing fast, Miso is still making big moves in 2026. It just acquired the IP of a pizza-robotics pioneer once valued at $2B+ and backed by SoftBank, growing Miso’s patent portfolio 10X overnight to over 300.

Industry powerhouse Ecolab invested. Now’s your chance to claim a stake. Invest in Miso at $5.48/share by September 17.

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com

A Little Long, A Lot Short…

“I Am Not Playing For Gains Here”

Burry’s own explanation for buying Nvidia calls while remaining short. ↓

→ 3.5–4% – Portfolio allocated to Nvidia calls.

→ 21%+ – Total short exposure, excluding puts
The bigger picture remains decidedly bearish: more than one-fifth of the portfolio was positioned short across individual stocks.

→ +8% – Nvidia’s move the day after earnings
The exact scenario the calls were there to protect against. Nvidia surged 8.7% on Aug. 27 after its earnings and outlook reinforced confidence in AI spending.

The Trade, Minus the Jargon↓

On paper, Burry’s positioning looks strange:

→ He’s short Nvidia — betting the stock eventually falls.

→ He owns puts — giving him even more downside exposure.

→ Then, before earnings, he bought calls — which benefit if Nvidia rises.

Why bet both ways?

Because Burry wasn’t buying the calls to turn bullish. He was buying protection against being wrong in the short term.

If Nvidia ripped higher after earnings, the calls could soften some of the damage to his much larger bearish position.

And that’s essentially what happened: Nvidia jumped 8%.

Burry said he “would not have made the trade at all” without the short already sitting on the other side.

In other words: The calls weren’t a change of heart. They were insurance.

✱ Hedge your expectations. Burry admits this playbook isn’t foolproof. His previous attempts to hedge around Nvidia earnings with short-dated options have delivered “inconsistent results.”

! It’s protection, not a guarantee.

SPONSOR BREAK presented by DealMaker*

An 8,000X Oversubscription Could Lift Robotics Stocks

Robotics stocks are having a moment, after a recent robotics IPO was oversubscribed by 8,000X.

Experts say the frenzy could reprice robotics stocks everywhere. Meanwhile, 44k+ everyday investors like you found a different way into this boom: a private-stage company named Miso Robotics. 

Miso’s Flippy Fry Station AI robot already boosts profits up to 4X for brands like White Castle. A recent acquisition added new big-name customers like Jersey Mike’s, Cinnabon, Auntie Anne’s, and more. And now, Miso just entered a college campus, NBA arena, and a national burger chain.

With the $1T fast-food industry modernizing fast, Miso is still making big moves in 2026. It just acquired the IP of a pizza-robotics pioneer once valued at $2B+ and backed by SoftBank, growing Miso’s patent portfolio 10X overnight to over 300.

Industry powerhouse Ecolab invested. Now’s your chance to claim a stake. Invest in Miso at $5.48/share by September 17.

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com

The Short List Gets Longer.

See the pattern?

Burry added to shorts in Oracle, Palantir and Nebius — while putting more money behind very different bets in Birkenstock and Freddie Mac.

It makes Nvidia harder to dismiss as a one-stock bearish call.

It fits into the broader “perimeter of debt” thesis we covered earlier this month: Burry’s concern that the risks surrounding the AI spending boom extend well beyond Nvidia itself.

✱ He is short more of the AI trade. Long elsewhere.

Undervalued…

Burry called the stock “wildly undervalued” based on its earnings power and the “monopoly rents” he believes Nvidia can command.

So… why short it?

He argues Nvidia “will not distribute enough to shareholders” — instead continuing to pour capital back into the AI buildout, potentially “into and through the top of the bubble.”

And in Burry’s valuation, even Nvidia’s enormous earnings power still doesn’t justify where the stock trades today.

The distinction: Nvidia can be cheap relative to the profits it generates — and still expensive relative to what Burry thinks shareholders will ultimately get back.

And Then There’s Cisco.

Burry has been building this argument since at least May, when he drew a comparison between Nvidia’s AI financing arrangements and Cisco during the dot-com boom.

His concern is that reported revenue doesn’t necessarily tell you where the financial risk ultimately sits.

Fully disclosed revenue can still be tied to a system where enormous amounts of capital and debt are circulating between companies buying, financing and building AI infrastructure.

It’s the same “perimeter of debt” argument we covered earlier this month — only this time, Nvidia sits much closer to the center of it.

Lesson Of The Day:

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Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

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Wood You Buy The Dip?

Cerebras has had a rough week.

The AI chipmaker fell for six straight trading sessions — including a 12.7% drop on the same day it unveiled its latest technology.

Cathie Wood apparently saw a different chart.

Her Ark Invest funds bought $17.2 million worth of Cerebras, just one week after making another purchase.

Wood, of course, has made a career out of betting early — and often aggressively — on technologies she thinks could reshape entire industries.

→ And Cerebras certainly fits the description.

It makes enormous AI chips designed to compete with the GPU systems Nvidia has built an empire around.

The pitch? Faster AI.

The problem? Making money.

Cerebras is growing quickly, but its losses are growing too.

Which leaves a rather interesting $17 million question:

What does Cathie Wood see in $CBRS ( ▼ 4.07% )  ?

We took a look.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by Paradigm*

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Buying Into the $CBRS Slide↓

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So, What Does Cerebras Actually Do?

Most AI systems get their computing power by connecting lots of smaller GPUs together.

Cerebras took a very different approach:

Build one enormous chip.

Its processors use nearly an entire silicon wafer, packing compute, memory and bandwidth together in an attempt to remove the bottlenecks that come from moving data between multiple GPUs.

The pitch? Speed.

According to Cerebras, its newest CS-4 system can deliver:

→ 4,400+ tokens per second, per user
→ Up to 30× faster inference than GPU-based systems

✱ Those are Cerebras’ own benchmarks, rather than independently verified results.

But there is one rather large vote of confidence:

OpenAI has agreed to add 750 megawatts of Cerebras computing capacity through 2028 — a deal Cerebras values at more than $20 billion.

For a company trying to prove there’s another way to build AI infrastructure, that’s a pretty serious customer to have on the order book.

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Financial Picture—Genuinely Mixed?

✱ Fast growth…expensive growth.

On the surface, Cerebras is growing at the kind of pace you’d expect investors to love.

→ +74% › Q2 revenue, to $180.1M
→ 2×+ › Core sales, to $209.9M
→ +281% › Cloud revenue, to $126M
→ $880–890M › New 2026 forecast

And yet, the stock fell 16% after earnings.

The reason? Growing this fast is proving expensive.

Core gross margin fell from 46.5% → 40.6%, while Cerebras posted a $450.5 million net loss. Renting additional computing capacity to keep up with demand squeezed margins further.

So, Cerebras clearly can find demand.

The question is whether it can turn all that demand into a business that actually scales profitably.

And with Nvidia already showing just how profitable AI chips can become, that’s a pretty high bar to clear.

Wood’s AI Math:

Cerebras is only one piece of Cathie Wood’s much larger AI thesis.

And the thesis is surprisingly simple:

AI gets cheaper → companies use more of it.

Ark estimates AI training costs are falling nearly 75% a year, while the cost of running some models has dropped by as much as 99% annually.

If that continues, AI becomes affordable for far more businesses — and all those models still need somewhere to run.

→ ~$500B › Data-center system investment in 2025
→ ~$1.4T › Ark’s projection for 2030

Wood thinks the impact could stretch well beyond tech. She has argued that AI, combined with robotics and other emerging technologies, could eventually push U.S. productivity growth toward 4–6% a year.

So the Cerebras bet is a bet that the AI pie gets big enough for a lot more companies to eat.

Wood’s Portfolio↓

Source: Cathie’s Ark · ARKK portfolio weights as of Aug. 27, 2026

Even after buying Cerebras twice in one week, Wood has kept the position relatively small.

At 2.58%, it’s roughly one-quarter the size of Tesla and sits below other AI-related bets including Palantir, AMD and CoreWeave.

But there’s an interesting wrinkle:

✱ Cerebras is already a bigger ARK position than Nvidia.

She’s spreading her chips across the companies she thinks could benefit if the AI market becomes big enough to produce more than one winner.

Lesson Of The Day:

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Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

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$100B Quarter…

→ Nvidia beat revenue estimates.
→ Beat profit estimates.
And could be heading for its first $100 billion quarter.

Great news for Nvidia.

But apparently, also for everyone else.

Nvidia now sits in the middle of an AI spending chain that stretches from memory chips and data centers to electricity, cloud computing and Big Tech’s enormous capex budgets.

Which got us wondering:

How did one company’s quarter become everyone else’s business?

Here’s where Nvidia got so important.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by DealMaker*

Ends Tonight: The ‘Nvidia of Energy’ Has a $2.1T Opportunity

Nvidia’s valuation surged by 1,092% when it became the backbone of AI*. But now there’s a problem Nvidia can’t solve: AI data centers are beginning to consume more power than entire nations like Sweden or Argentina**.

Enter Frontieras. Their patented tech reforms coal, one of America’s most abundant resources, into high-value commodities like jet fuel and diesel without burning it. With a coal-friendly White House, this could unlock up to $2.1T in energy potential***. 

Frontieras has reserved the “FASF” NASDAQ ticker and raised over $50M from 17,000+ investors. Now you can join them. Invest before the opportunity closes tonight at 11:59 p.m. PST.

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Frontieras’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.frontieras.com/. Forward looking statements were included here that the Company believes to be accurate given the current information. They involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors which if changed may affect the outcome(s). Reservation of the ticker symbol is not a guarantee that we will be listed on the NASDAQ.  Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals. Under Regulation A+, a company has the ability to change its share price by up to 20%, without requalifying the offering with the SEC. Comparisons to other companies or investments are provided for informational purposes only and do not imply future performance.

Why Does Everyone Wait For Nvidia?

The Bellwether Logic Explained↓

Big Tech has spent years writing increasingly enormous checks for AI.

Billions were poured into chips, data centers and cloud infrastructure.

Worth it, though?

Recent cloud results from Microsoft, Amazon and Google offered some reassurance. But rising spending from Google and Meta kept the other side of the debate alive.

That’s where Nvidia  NVDA ( ▲ 8.15% ) comes in.

Nvidia sits near the receiving end of much of that AI spending. So its results give Wall Street something unusually valuable: a read on whether the AI buildout is still accelerating.

In that sense, Nvidia was giving the AI boom its quarterly checkup.

The Numbers in Full↓

SPONSOR BREAK presented by DealMaker*

Ends Tonight: The ‘Nvidia of Energy’ Has a $2.1T Opportunity

Nvidia’s valuation surged by 1,092% when it became the backbone of AI*. But now there’s a problem Nvidia can’t solve: AI data centers are beginning to consume more power than entire nations like Sweden or Argentina**.

Enter Frontieras. Their patented tech reforms coal, one of America’s most abundant resources, into high-value commodities like jet fuel and diesel without burning it. With a coal-friendly White House, this could unlock up to $2.1T in energy potential***. 

Frontieras has reserved the “FASF” NASDAQ ticker and raised over $50M from 17,000+ investors. Now you can join them. Invest before the opportunity closes tonight at 11:59 p.m. PST.

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Frontieras’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.frontieras.com/. Forward looking statements were included here that the Company believes to be accurate given the current information. They involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors which if changed may affect the outcome(s). Reservation of the ticker symbol is not a guarantee that we will be listed on the NASDAQ.  Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals. Under Regulation A+, a company has the ability to change its share price by up to 20%, without requalifying the offering with the SEC. Comparisons to other companies or investments are provided for informational purposes only and do not imply future performance.

Look Who’s Also Buying.

The hyperscalers are still buying Nvidia chips at a remarkable pace.

The first wave of AI spending was heavily concentrated among a handful of companies with very deep pockets.

→ Amazon.
→ Google.
→ Microsoft.
→ Meta.

✱ Now, Nvidia says the buyer list is getting longer — new AI labs, startups, open-model developers and companies building physical AI are all adding to demand.

In other words, Nvidia’s growth is becoming less about how much a few giants can spend and more about how many companies want AI computing in the first place.

The Catch?

Nvidia remains heavily dependent on the hyperscalers. And some of its biggest customers are spending billions developing their own AI chips at the same time they’re buying Nvidia’s.

It creates a rather unusual relationship:

They’re some of Nvidia’s biggest customers — and some of the companies working hardest to need fewer Nvidia chips.

For now, both can be true. Big Tech can build its own silicon and keep buying Nvidia at enormous scale.

The question is how long that balance lasts.

The Ripple Effect.

Nvidia’s quarter had another winner hiding in the numbers: memory chips.

The reason? Nvidia needs a lot of them.

AI GPUs rely on high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, to move enormous amounts of data quickly. And as Nvidia ships more AI systems, demand for that memory rises with it.

There’s just one problem: There isn’t enough to go around.

Nvidia CFO Colette Kress described memory price increases as “astronomical,” with supply so tight that securing manufacturing capacity doesn’t always guarantee exactly how many chips Nvidia will receive — or what they’ll ultimately cost.

→ SK Hynix SKHY ( ▲ 1.2% ) , Samsung and Micron MU ( ▼ 2.01% ) have already sold much of their premium AI-memory capacity through 2026.

So Nvidia’s booming demand doesn’t stop at Nvidia.

More AI GPUs → more HBM → tighter memory supply → more business for the companies making it.

✱ And suddenly, a great quarter for Nvidia becomes a pretty interesting quarter for the memory guys, too.

The $0 China Bet↓

There’s one rather large market missing from Nvidia’s outlook:

China.

Nvidia’s forward guidance assumes $0 in China data-center compute revenue.

Just because Nvidia has no reliable way to know what it will actually be allowed to sell there.

→ <1% › Of $89B in data-center revenue came from resumed H200 sales
→ $7.9B › Total China revenue, or 8.2% of Nvidia’s Q2 sales

The situation has become almost circular. Washington approved Nvidia’s older H200 chips for China, only for Beijing to discourage Chinese companies from buying them.

So Nvidia has taken the simplest route with its forecast:

If China can’t be counted on, don’t count China at all.

That leaves a potentially enormous market completely outside the guidance — and one very big geopolitical wildcard sitting on top of an otherwise booming quarter.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here. 

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

$100B Quarter…

→ Nvidia beat revenue estimates.
→ Beat profit estimates.
And could be heading for its first $100 billion quarter.

Great news for Nvidia.

But apparently, also for everyone else.

Nvidia now sits in the middle of an AI spending chain that stretches from memory chips and data centers to electricity, cloud computing and Big Tech’s enormous capex budgets.

Which got us wondering:

How did one company’s quarter become everyone else’s business?

Here’s where Nvidia got so important.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by DealMaker*

Ends Tonight: The ‘Nvidia of Energy’ Has a $2.1T Opportunity

Nvidia’s valuation surged by 1,092% when it became the backbone of AI*. But now there’s a problem Nvidia can’t solve: AI data centers are beginning to consume more power than entire nations like Sweden or Argentina**.

Enter Frontieras. Their patented tech reforms coal, one of America’s most abundant resources, into high-value commodities like jet fuel and diesel without burning it. With a coal-friendly White House, this could unlock up to $2.1T in energy potential***. 

Frontieras has reserved the “FASF” NASDAQ ticker and raised over $50M from 17,000+ investors. Now you can join them. Invest before the opportunity closes tonight at 11:59 p.m. PST.

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Frontieras’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.frontieras.com/. Forward looking statements were included here that the Company believes to be accurate given the current information. They involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors which if changed may affect the outcome(s). Reservation of the ticker symbol is not a guarantee that we will be listed on the NASDAQ.  Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals. Under Regulation A+, a company has the ability to change its share price by up to 20%, without requalifying the offering with the SEC. Comparisons to other companies or investments are provided for informational purposes only and do not imply future performance.

Why Does Everyone Wait For Nvidia?

The Bellwether Logic Explained↓

Big Tech has spent years writing increasingly enormous checks for AI.

Billions were poured into chips, data centers and cloud infrastructure.

Worth it, though?

Recent cloud results from Microsoft, Amazon and Google offered some reassurance. But rising spending from Google and Meta kept the other side of the debate alive.

That’s where Nvidia  NVDA ( ▲ 8.15% ) comes in.

Nvidia sits near the receiving end of much of that AI spending. So its results give Wall Street something unusually valuable: a read on whether the AI buildout is still accelerating.

In that sense, Nvidia was giving the AI boom its quarterly checkup.

The Numbers in Full↓

SPONSOR BREAK presented by DealMaker*

Ends Tonight: The ‘Nvidia of Energy’ Has a $2.1T Opportunity

Nvidia’s valuation surged by 1,092% when it became the backbone of AI*. But now there’s a problem Nvidia can’t solve: AI data centers are beginning to consume more power than entire nations like Sweden or Argentina**.

Enter Frontieras. Their patented tech reforms coal, one of America’s most abundant resources, into high-value commodities like jet fuel and diesel without burning it. With a coal-friendly White House, this could unlock up to $2.1T in energy potential***. 

Frontieras has reserved the “FASF” NASDAQ ticker and raised over $50M from 17,000+ investors. Now you can join them. Invest before the opportunity closes tonight at 11:59 p.m. PST.

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Frontieras’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.frontieras.com/. Forward looking statements were included here that the Company believes to be accurate given the current information. They involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors which if changed may affect the outcome(s). Reservation of the ticker symbol is not a guarantee that we will be listed on the NASDAQ.  Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals. Under Regulation A+, a company has the ability to change its share price by up to 20%, without requalifying the offering with the SEC. Comparisons to other companies or investments are provided for informational purposes only and do not imply future performance.

Look Who’s Also Buying.

The hyperscalers are still buying Nvidia chips at a remarkable pace.

The first wave of AI spending was heavily concentrated among a handful of companies with very deep pockets.

→ Amazon.
→ Google.
→ Microsoft.
→ Meta.

✱ Now, Nvidia says the buyer list is getting longer — new AI labs, startups, open-model developers and companies building physical AI are all adding to demand.

In other words, Nvidia’s growth is becoming less about how much a few giants can spend and more about how many companies want AI computing in the first place.

The Catch?

Nvidia remains heavily dependent on the hyperscalers. And some of its biggest customers are spending billions developing their own AI chips at the same time they’re buying Nvidia’s.

It creates a rather unusual relationship:

They’re some of Nvidia’s biggest customers — and some of the companies working hardest to need fewer Nvidia chips.

For now, both can be true. Big Tech can build its own silicon and keep buying Nvidia at enormous scale.

The question is how long that balance lasts.

The Ripple Effect.

Nvidia’s quarter had another winner hiding in the numbers: memory chips.

The reason? Nvidia needs a lot of them.

AI GPUs rely on high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, to move enormous amounts of data quickly. And as Nvidia ships more AI systems, demand for that memory rises with it.

There’s just one problem: There isn’t enough to go around.

Nvidia CFO Colette Kress described memory price increases as “astronomical,” with supply so tight that securing manufacturing capacity doesn’t always guarantee exactly how many chips Nvidia will receive — or what they’ll ultimately cost.

→ SK Hynix SKHY ( ▲ 1.2% ) , Samsung and Micron MU ( ▼ 2.01% ) have already sold much of their premium AI-memory capacity through 2026.

So Nvidia’s booming demand doesn’t stop at Nvidia.

More AI GPUs → more HBM → tighter memory supply → more business for the companies making it.

✱ And suddenly, a great quarter for Nvidia becomes a pretty interesting quarter for the memory guys, too.

The $0 China Bet↓

There’s one rather large market missing from Nvidia’s outlook:

China.

Nvidia’s forward guidance assumes $0 in China data-center compute revenue.

Just because Nvidia has no reliable way to know what it will actually be allowed to sell there.

→ <1% › Of $89B in data-center revenue came from resumed H200 sales
→ $7.9B › Total China revenue, or 8.2% of Nvidia’s Q2 sales

The situation has become almost circular. Washington approved Nvidia’s older H200 chips for China, only for Beijing to discourage Chinese companies from buying them.

So Nvidia has taken the simplest route with its forecast:

If China can’t be counted on, don’t count China at all.

That leaves a potentially enormous market completely outside the guidance — and one very big geopolitical wildcard sitting on top of an otherwise booming quarter.

Lesson Of The Day:

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.

Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.

💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:

Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?

Just drop your request in the comments here. 

P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!

$5K × AMD = ?

AMD has already more than doubled this year.

And apparently, Wall Street thinks there could still be plenty left in the tank.

One particularly bullish analyst sees AMD reaching $1,250, while the company itself is forecasting enormous growth from its AI business.

Which got us wondering:

What could $5,000 invested in AMD today look like by 2030?

The obvious answer is more.

How much more is where things get complicated.

Because AMD’s growth expectations are huge — but so is the price investors are already paying for them.

So, we ran the numbers.⇩

SPONSOR BREAK presented by DealMaker*

Last Chance: The ‘Nvidia of Energy’ Has a $2.1T Opportunity

Nvidia’s valuation surged by 1,092% in just 3 years* when it became the backbone of AI. 

How? They became the indispensable backbone of Artificial Intelligence. But today, AI has a problem that Nvidia can’t fix. 

As AI data centers begin consuming more power than entire nations like Sweden or Argentina**, Frontieras North America’s patented technology reforms coal into high-value commodities like hydrogen and diesel without burning it. Since coal is one of America’s most abundant resources, this creates a clean, reliable source of baseload power, upgrading and expanding coal plants when the country needs it most. Under a White House that favors energy production on our home soil, it could unlock up to $2.1 Trillion in energy potential***. 

But that’s not even the best part. They’re doing it in what was once the heart of American industry: Appalachia. Their new land purchase in Mason County, West Virginia has earned praise from the state’s Governor Morrisey for its potential to transform the region back into an energy powerhouse. 

Here’s why you shouldn’t miss this last chance to invest:

• “FASF” ticker reserved on the NASDAQ

• $850M flagship facility now being built

• Over $50 million raised-to-date from 17,000+ investors like you

After selling out their $25.7M raise in just months, they’re now qualified to raise $75 million. As a perfect storm of breakthroughs set up the company for potential growth, time’s running out to invest at the current price. 

Don’t miss your opportunity to become a Frontieras shareholder. The window closes tomorrow night.

Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for Frontieras’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.frontieras.com/. Forward looking statements were included here that the Company believes to be accurate given the current information. They involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors which if changed may affect the outcome(s). Reservation of the ticker symbol is not a guarantee that we will be listed on the NASDAQ.  Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals. Under Regulation A+, a company has the ability to change its share price by up to 20%, without requalifying the offering with the SEC. Comparisons to other companies or investments are provided for informational purposes only and do not imply future performance.

The Three Calls, Side by Side…

Wall Street agrees AMD ( ▲ 0.57% ) has room to run.

But how much room? ↓

→ $1,250 — Baird › Tristan Gerra doubled his target from $625, implying roughly 164% upside. The big bet: AMD’s Instinct GPUs grab a meaningful slice of Nvidia’s AI-chip dominance.

→ $641 — Raymond James › Simon Leopold upgraded AMD to Strong Buy and lifted his target from $565. His angle goes beyond GPUs: AI agents will need a lot more server CPUs, too.

→ $600 — The Motley Fool math › Keithen Drury took AMD’s own $20+ earnings target, applied a more conventional 30× multiple, and landed around $600. Less fireworks, mostly because AMD’s current price already expects a lot to go right.

The Bull Case↓

!!! Analyst opinion — not a TradingLessons recommendation

1 Baird’s bull case requires AMD to take a considerably bigger bite out of the AI-chip market.

• $147B – Projected AMD AI GPU sales by 2030

• ~15% – Share of the data-center accelerator market

2 Cheaper than Nvidia

AMD’s potential pricing advantage

At the center of Tristan Gerra’s thesis is Instinct, AMD’s AI GPU platform, and Helios, its rack-scale system. The bet is that Helios becomes a credible Nvidia alternative for the hyperscalers spending billions to build AI infrastructure.

→ AMD has another card to play: price.
Even after raising GPU prices as demand climbed, its AI hardware still sells at a discount to Nvidia’s — potentially giving customers a rather expensive reason to shop around.

3 The $1,250 Catch

For Gerra’s number to work, AMD doesn’t just need the AI boom to continue. It needs to win a meaningful piece of it.

Of course, $1,250 comes with a fairly demanding to-do list: AI spending needs to keep climbing, AMD needs to take meaningful share, and Nvidia needs to leave enough room for a very large No. 2.

Possible? Sure. Priced at $1,250? That’s the bet.

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The More Moderate Bull Case.

Raymond James’ Simon Leopold sees another way AMD could ride the AI boom — the humble CPU.

The reason? AI agents.

Unlike a chatbot waiting for your next question, AI agents can keep working in the background — searching databases, retrieving information, running applications and calling other tools.

✱ A lot of that work happens on CPUs, not GPUs.

Leopold thinks that could send server CPU sales climbing at a 44% annualized rate, reaching:

→ $201B › Projected CPU sales by 2030

→ +44%/yr › Projected growth rate

And AMD already has some momentum to work with. Its data-center business reported:

→ $6.7B › Q2 data-center revenue

→ +107% YoY › Growth from a year earlier

That last number matters: $201 billion is a forecast. The 107% growth is already on the books.

Leopold’s bet is essentially that AI won’t just need more GPUs to think.

It’ll need a lot more CPUs to get the work done.

The Sobering Counterpoint.

Here’s where AMD’s monster run starts working against it.

The stock has gained more than 120% this year. And at today’s price, investors are already paying for quite a bit of tomorrow.

Now For The Less Exciting Math

AMD has said it expects companywide growth of 35% and non-GAAP earnings above $20 per share within three to five years.

Put a 30× multiple on those $20 of earnings and you get a stock price of roughly:

$600

The catch? AMD was already trading around $475 in the source analysis. So even if earnings climb dramatically and AMD hits that $20 target, the resulting $600 price would represent only about 26% upside under this particular scenario.

That’s the valuation problem in a nutshell.

AMD doesn’t just need to grow. A lot of that growth is already expected.

And with the stock already valued at roughly 30× estimated 2027 earnings, investors buying today are paying in advance for a good chunk of the progress Wall Street expects over the next couple of years.

Lesson Of The Day:

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