A Little Superstitious…

Friday the 13th isn’t exactly the date most people would choose to test their luck.

SpaceX, apparently, has other plans.

Tomorrow, Elon Musk’s rocket company is targeting its 15th Starship test flight, with a launch window opening at 5:45 p.m. ET in Texas.

And this one comes with a particularly ambitious objective.

SpaceX  SPCX ( ▲ 0.14% ) wants to bring both stages of its enormous rocket back to the launch tower, where giant mechanical arms will attempt to catch them.

The timing is interesting for investors, too.

SpaceX shares have fallen nearly 12% over the past month, even as the company reports extraordinary revenue growth and pushes ahead with increasingly expensive expansion plans.

✱ A successful test could mark an important step toward making Starship fully reusable. But the mission remains a target, and the upper-stage return depends on checks during the flight.

For investors, Friday’s flight is another test of SpaceX’s ability to deliver on its ambitious plans.

And of all the dates on the calendar, SpaceX picked Friday the 13th.

Apparently, catching two rockets wasn’t tempting fate enough.

Here’s the story. ⇩

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Catch Me If You Can …

On Friday, November 13, SpaceX is targeting its 15th Starship test flight, with the launch window opening at 5:45 p.m. ET from Starbase, Texas.

And the company has quite a to-do list.

→ First catch: Bring the Super Heavy booster back to the launch tower, where enormous mechanical arms will attempt to grab it.

→ Second catch: Return the Starship upper stage to the same tower, provided in-flight system checks give the green light.

→ Along the way: Deploy 26 next-generation Starlink satellites, which SpaceX says could provide as much network capacity as roughly 10 Falcon 9 missions carrying older satellites.

A successful double catch would be a first.

But SpaceX still needs to demonstrate that both stages can be inspected, refurbished, and launched again at a practical cost.

And that’s where the economics become interesting.

The real prize is a rocket that can fly again.

And again.

Without requiring a fresh fortune each time.↓

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A Change of Orbit…

SpaceX latest earnings reveal something interesting happening much closer to Earth.

→ AI is becoming its biggest source of revenue.

Third-quarter sales jumped 161% to $14.6 billion, comfortably beating Wall Street’s $12.7 billion estimate.

And the breakdown looks rather different from what you might expect.

→ Super Intelligence: $7.56 billion in revenue, up from $813 million a year earlier.

→ Connectivity: $5.25 billion, up 69%, driven by Starlink’s expanding satellite internet business.

For the first time in the figures reported, SpaceX’s AI division generated more revenue than its connectivity segment.

The AI business largely rents computing power to companies building and running artificial intelligence models.

And two customers are doing much of the heavy lifting.

According to TIKR, contracts with Anthropic and Google represent approximately $6.5 billion in quarterly computing commitments at their full contracted rates.

That’s equivalent to roughly 86% of the AI division’s third-quarter revenue, although contracted capacity and recognized revenue aren’t necessarily the same thing.

There’s plenty of growth here. But also considerable dependence on a small number of customers.

SpaceX built its reputation launching things into space. Its fastest-growing business is renting out computing power on Earth. ↓

The Sky-High Bill…

SpaceX is growing at an extraordinary pace.

Unfortunately, so are its bills.

In the third quarter, the company spent $19.6 billion on capital expenditures — investments in equipment, computing infrastructure, and other long-term assets.

That’s $5 billion more than its quarterly revenue.

And the spending isn’t slowing down.

→ First nine months of 2026: $48.1 billion in capital spending, up from $13.8 billion a year earlier.

→ Fourth-quarter outlook: Another $35 billion to $40 billion.

→ Musk’s ambition: Reach a $500 billion annualized revenue run rate by December 2027.

That last figure deserves some perspective.

An annualized revenue run rate takes the current pace of sales and projects it across a full year. It’s not the same as revenue actually earned over 12 months.

✱ SpaceX’s third-quarter revenue translates to an annualized pace of roughly $58 billion.

Musk is talking about reaching more than eight times that pace by the end of next year.

Meanwhile, the stock carries a valuation of approximately $1.9 trillion, according to TIKR.

That’s a lot of future growth already riding on today’s expectations.

And Friday’s rocket test is just one piece of the equation.

SpaceX has no shortage of ambition.

The expensive part is turning it into reality. ↓

A Soft Landing…

A successful double catch on Friday would be a remarkable engineering achievement.

But SpaceX has a bigger challenge waiting after the applause.

Making it repeatable.

Catching both stages would bring the company closer to its goal of fully reusable rockets. The next step is proving those rockets can be refurbished and launched again without the enormous costs associated with building new ones.

That’s particularly important for Starship, which is intended to carry larger Starlink satellites, support future orbital computing infrastructure, and make transporting heavy payloads into space more economical.

→ Friday could demonstrate what’s technically possible.

→ The months that follow will help establish what’s commercially practical.

After all, airlines don’t make money by landing a plane once.

They make money by sending it back up.

* Sources: Yahoo Finance, November 10, 2026; Markel’s Q3 2026 reported holdings.

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