We’ve Seen This Movie Before…
US midterm elections are right around the corner, and Washington is already loud about it. Historically, markets don’t love that noise.
Oddly enough, they’ve loved what comes next.
But the data on what happens right after the noise stops is remarkably consistent
Here’s the historical pattern, what may actually be driving it, and why prediction markets are turning election season into their next big business.
⇩
SPONSOR BREAK presented by Brownstone*
What is Trump’s decade-long obsession?
No president has moved markets like Trump.
He has a history of adding and wiping trillions from a market, seemingly at will.
But Larry says all of that was just the warm-up.
Because one plan has obsessed Trump for over a decade. Larry believes it’s about to send billions flooding into a single ticker.
If you want to get ahead of Trump’s next move – check out this presentation with Larry where he gives the name of that ticker for free.
Click here now while you’re still early..
18/18…
✱ The market has seen 18 post-midterm years since 1954.
Every single post-midterm 12-month period since 1954 has produced a positive S&P 500 return — a perfect historical streak.
That’s either an incredible coincidence—or one of Wall Street’s most reliable patterns.
The Four-Year Cycle, Mapped Out
If midterm years feel harder to sit through, the data says you’re not imagining it.
They have historically produced the biggest drawdowns and highest volatility of the four-year cycle, according to LPL’s Jeff Buchbinder.
The twist? They’ve also tended to set the stage for the strongest year that follows.
Buchbinder argues the pattern has less to do with politics than with uncertainty.
→ Once the election is over, investors have a clearer view of the policy landscape and tend to shift their focus back to earnings, economic growth, and interest rates.
✱ In other words, it’s the uncertainty—not the outcome—that markets have historically been pricing.
SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*
Will You Survive the MAR-A-LAGO RESET?
Bloomberg calls it “a dire shift of fortunes for America” and The Wall Street Journal calls it a “New World Order.” Now, Dr. David Eifrig – a 40-year market veteran who traded through Black Monday and has recommended more than a dozen triple-digit winners – warns that you must make one of the most important financial decisions of your lifetime today. He strongly recommends this ONE step to potentially secure your retirement.
Base Case?
✱ Buchbinder’s broader point isn’t political.
It isn’t a prediction about who wins. It’s about that markets have historically cared more about uncertainty disappearing than which party ends up in charge.
→ LPL’s most likely scenario is a divided Congress, ending the current single-party control of both chambers.
→ That usually means fewer sweeping policy changes—but more recurring battles over government funding, the debt ceiling, and other fiscal deadlines.
→ With Congress more likely to stall, executive orders and regulators often take on a bigger role, since they don’t require approval from both chambers.
Source: LPL Financial · July 2026
“Midterm years may test investors’ patience, but they may reward discipline.” — Jeff Buchbinder
! Buchbinder’s message: don’t spend your energy trying to predict election winners. History suggests investors have been better served preparing for volatility—and staying ready once the uncertainty begins to fade.
SPONSOR BREAK presented by MarketWise*
Get rid of overpriced AI stocks before a scheduled announcement on July 31st threatens to reshuffle the stock market’s winners and losers. Smaller, lesser-known names are now showing the overwhelming potential to dethrone AI’s Magnificent 7. On July 31st , this little-known stock in particular could soar while Tesla faceplants.
Get the name and ticker of this stock on your radar now…
Meanwhile…↓
Meanwhile… one company is betting election season is becoming its own asset class.
This week, Kalshi launched a dedicated Midterms Hub, combining live odds, polling, fundraising data, and historical election results. The goal isn’t just to attract traders—it’s to become the place people visit to see how the political race is shifting in real time.
The timing isn’t accidental.
Kalshi added 3 million users during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. More than $1.2 billion was traded on the tournament winner alone—a company record—while an estimated $40 billion flowed through sports markets overall, according to Ticker Tracker.
The Midterms Hub is Kalshi’s attempt to prove that election season can attract the same kind of attention.
SPONSOR BREAK presented by Paradigm*
Trump to Unleash Giant $2.7 Trillion Gold Mine?
Executive Order #14153 outlines what Jim Rickards believes are Trump’s intentions to unleash the largest mineral reserve in the country.
According to Jim’s research, he estimates it contains up to $2.7 trillion in gold, silver, copper, and other precious elements
This single company – trading for just $2 per share – holds 100% of the rights to this asset.
But you need to act before November 3 to take advantage before the President makes his next move…
That’s when a landmark policy decision could reprice this $2 stock, overnight.
This opportunity is so explosive, it’s possible shares could skyrocket 50-times or more by the end of Trump’s term.
But – time’s running out.
Go here to get the full details before this stock soars.
⚠️ The Regulatory Friction Is Real
Kalshi’s expansion into political markets is arriving just as regulators are taking a harder look at the industry.
A congressional investigation into potential insider trading on prediction markets is ongoing. This week, Wisconsin’s election commission warned residents that betting on races they’re eligible to vote in could violate state law and even jeopardize their ballots. Washington state has already blocked Kalshi’s event contracts, while Massachusetts, Michigan, and Nevada have secured similar injunctions. Kalshi disputes those interpretations, calling Wisconsin’s warning unconstitutional.
The irony: the company is betting big on election markets just as regulators are trying to narrow what those markets can offer.
Source: Bloomberg
🤔 How “wise” is the crowd?
Prediction markets are often praised as the “wisdom of the crowd’“. Research suggests the reality may be a little different.
A working paper from Yale University and London Business School found that roughly 3% of traders account for most of the market’s predictive accuracy by pushing prices toward the correct outcome. As the researchers put it, “the remaining majority does not produce accuracy; rather, it funds it.”
That lines up with Kalshi’s own data: 75% of visitors never place a trade at all. The crowd may matter—but the prices themselves appear to be shaped by a relatively small group of informed participants.
Don’t forget to cast your vote 👇
Lesson Of The Day:
Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe using the button below.
Also, help your friends blossom this spring! Share us with them.
💬 We Want To Hear Your Story:
Got a market or stock you want us to analyze next?
Just drop your request in the comments here.
P.S. – If you no longer want to receive occasional emails from us and you want to unsubscribe, click here 👉 “Unsubscribe” . Thank you!
