The Biggest Test Yet…
SpaceX briefly fell to $132.75 on Wednesday, marking the first time shares traded below their IPO price. The stock recovered to close at $135.27, but sentiment has clearly cooled after four straight losing sessions.
Meanwhile, short sellers are sitting on roughly $3.8 billion in unrealized gains.
Now comes the next catalyst.
Tonight, SpaceX launches Starship Flight 13—the company’s first Starship mission since going public. Whether the launch succeeds or stumbles, it is likely to shape investor sentiment far more than another ordinary trading day.
Here’s what investors should know before liftoff. ⇩
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The Four-Day Skid…
✱ A Reuters review of 50 major US IPOs since 2010 found something worth sitting with tonight: companies whose shares traded below their IPO price within the first two months of trading generally went on to deliver weaker long-term performance than companies that stayed above their offering price.
→ SpaceX briefly crossed that line Wednesday, a little over a month after its debut. One data point isn’t a verdict — but it’s the kind of historical pattern that makes tonight’s launch matter more than a routine test flight normally would.
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The Short Sellers.
→ $3.8 billion in gains.
→ 28% of the tradeable float bet against the stock.
That’s a big number for a company barely a month old.
Why 28% short interest is a genuinely large number.
Most large-cap stocks carry short interest in the low single digits as a percentage of float.
Nearly 28% means more than a quarter of every share currently available to trade is a bet that the price falls further.
That level of bearish positioning, this early in a company’s public life, reflects real skepticism about the valuation — but it also means any piece of good news (like a clean launch tonight) could trigger a sharp short-covering rally, since a lot of traders would suddenly need to buy back shares to close their positions.
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What Actually Happens Tonight ↓
1 Starship Flight 13 – The second flight of the larger Starship V3 design. The first V3 mission ended with the vehicle exploding after splashdown in May.
2 Booster recovery – Super Heavy Booster 20 must complete launch, stage separation, and a controlled return to its offshore landing zone in the Gulf of Mexico.
3 First V3 satellite deployment – Starship will attempt to deploy 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites—the first operational deployment from a Starship mission
4 Heat shield performance – Six of those satellites carry cameras designed to monitor Starship’s heat shield during reentry, providing critical data for future reuse.
5 Controlled splashdown – Ship 40 is scheduled to complete the mission with a controlled descent into the Indian Ocean.
✱ Wall Street is watching for data on how fast and how cheaply the second stage can be refurbished and reflown. That is what actually determines whether Starship becomes a profitable commercial vehicle or an expensive science project.
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The Next Catalyst — More Shares.
Why the float is about to change
SpaceX’s IPO made less than 5% of the company available for public trading, creating one of the tightest floats of any mega-cap stock. That scarcity helped amplify every move in the share price.
In early August, that begins to change.
The first lockup expiration is expected to make roughly 911.5 million shares—worth about $123 billion at current prices—eligible for sale by employees and early investors. That’s more stock than the entire ~$86 billion float currently trading in the market.
One important nuance: eligible doesn’t mean sold. Many insiders may choose to keep holding their shares. But the market knows the potential supply is coming, and that’s enough to change how investors think about the stock. The float won’t double overnight—but the ceiling on available shares rises meaningfully over the next several months.
An additional 455.8 million shares could also unlock if SpaceX trades above $175.50 for at least five of the ten trading days before earnings. With the stock currently well below that level, the performance trigger appears unlikely for now. Elon Musk’s holdings remain locked until mid-2027, regardless of the other lockup schedules.
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How Expensive Is SpaceX?
Both figures describe the same company—they simply measure it against different points in time.
✱ The 110× multiple compares today’s valuation with last year’s reported revenue.
✱ The 49× multiple uses analysts’ estimates for future revenue, assuming the business continues growing rapidly.
Both are mathematically legitimate ways to describe the same valuation — they just tell very different stories.
→ The forward multiple asks, “What if SpaceX delivers on expectations?”
→ The trailing multiple asks, “What is investors’ optimism worth today?”
Even on the more forgiving forward measure, SpaceX trades at a substantial premium to most large technology companies. For context, Tesla trades at roughly 15× expected revenue. SpaceX remains valued at several times that level, reflecting investors’ willingness to pay today for growth they expect years from now.
Q1 as a Public Company?
✱ Wall Street currently expects full-year 2026 revenue near $38.2 billion, climbing to roughly $69.2 billion in 2027 — but earnings are projected to stay negative through that stretch as the company keeps investing aggressively across Starship, Starlink, and its AI ambitions via xAI, which has already secured long-term infrastructure agreements with Anthropic and Google.
One Launch Won’t Answer The Big Question.
Tonight’s launch will give investors something tangible: telemetry, video, and a simple pass-or-fail outcome. But that’s never been the real debate.
The market isn’t trying to decide whether Starship can reach space. It’s trying to decide whether a company valued at roughly $2 trillion deserves that price while still losing billions of dollars each quarter, with most of its shares still locked up and a business model that depends on flying the same rocket again and again—not simply launching it once.
Infrastructure Capital Advisors’ Jay Hatfield summed up the current mood well. From a trading perspective, he says it’s “relatively safe to at least be involved,” but not enough to overweight the stock with the first lockup expiration approaching.
In other words, tomorrow’s headlines may be about the rocket.
The stock’s next big move may depend on August’s earnings instead.
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