SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100. → Billions of dollars were forced to buy.
One of SpaceX’s biggest scheduled catalysts finally arrived today.
The company officially joined the Nasdaq 100, triggering an estimated $4.3 billion of automatic buying from index funds required to own the stock.
Yet despite that guaranteed demand, SpaceX fell 3.4% (from Friday’s close).
At first glance, that doesn’t make much sense.
Until you look at the float.
Here is why — and why the float math is the number that matters most between now and December.
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What Do Trump, Buffett, and Bezos Know That We Don’t?
Take at look at this stack of papers covered in black marker:
What you’re looking at are the 750 White House files President Trump quietly “redacted” behind closed doors.
But what happened next was even more peculiar…
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President Donald Trump wrote a $300 million check to a controversial company located in Foothill Ranch, California.
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If you follow the money trail…
Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, Bill Gates… even an up-and-coming tech titan who the late Charlie Munger referred to as, “the new emperor of the world”… have all poured billions into the same area.
The Number That Explains The Rest Of 2026.
Today’s trading only tells part of the story.
That’s because only about 4% of all SpaceX shares are currently available to trade.
The remaining 96% are still locked up—held by insiders, early investors, and Elon Musk under post-IPO restrictions.
That creates an unusually tight market.
With so few shares changing hands, even modest buying or selling can have an outsized impact on the stock price. It’s one of the reasons SpaceX has experienced such sharp swings since going public.
But that won’t last forever.
As lockup periods begin to expire, the number of shares eligible to trade could climb toward 40% by December. That doesn’t mean all of those shares will be sold. It means the potential supply of stock available to the market will increase significantly.
The Nasdaq 100 inclusion happened today.
The changing float may be the story that shapes the rest of 2026.
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Forget SpaceX, Elon’s M.A.G.I. Could Be Bigger
While everyone was distracted with the recent SpaceX IPO…
Elon Musk quietly filed a patent with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office to protect what Jeff Brown believes will be his next breakthrough…
Something he called “the greatest tech invention in history.”
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Every unlock date — in full.
⚠️ One Important Distinction
Eligible doesn’t mean sold.
As lockup restrictions expire, insiders gain the option to sell their shares—not the obligation. Many may continue holding if they remain confident in the company’s long-term prospects.
That’s why a float increasing from 4% to potentially 36% doesn’t mean 36% of the company suddenly hits the market.
It means the pool of shares available to trade becomes much larger.
Until now, SpaceX has traded with an unusually limited supply of stock. Between now and December, that supply constraint gradually begins to ease.
Whether insiders actually sell—or continue holding—will determine how much of that additional supply reaches the market.
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He predicted the 2008 financial crisis…
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That was three months before the first reported case.
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Because this crisis will be tectonic in scale…and it’s going to begin with the bubble popping in AI.
The Market’s Verdict.
Nasdaq 100 inclusion answered one question.
Would automatic buying from index funds be enough to move the stock?
The answer was no.
While passive funds added SpaceX as expected, the stock still finished lower, suggesting that investors were focused on forces beyond a single calendar event.
Part of the explanation is simple arithmetic.
Even billions of dollars in mechanical buying represent only a small fraction of a company valued at more than $2 trillion. At the same time, broader weakness across high-growth technology stocks and growing attention to the upcoming lockup schedule limited the impact of that demand.
Today’s inclusion wasn’t meaningless.
It confirmed that scheduled catalysts don’t exist in isolation. Markets weigh them against everything else already on the horizon—and right now, investors appear to be looking further ahead than today’s index addition.
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World’s Largest Investors Are Moving Their Money (Not Into AI)
While the media distracts you with stories about the next big AI IPO… The world’s largest investors are moving their money into one asset – at the fastest pace in a generation. This asset has crushed the S&P 500’s return over the past 12 months… More than TRIPLED the S&P 500’s return in 2025… and has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 25 years by more than 1,100 percentage points. According to one Wall Street veteran, with over 40 years of professional investing experience… the biggest gains could be still ahead. That’s why he’s urging you to make one money move now.
The Bull Case.
Despite Monday’s pullback, the broader investment thesis hasn’t changed.
Wall Street continues to see upside, with analysts assigning an average price target of $188.57, while retail sentiment remains broadly optimistic.
The underlying thesis — Starlink as a global telecom utility, xAI as a core AI franchise, Starship as Earth-to-orbit compute infrastructure — has not changed.
SpaceX still launches more than 80% of the world’s mass to orbit, operates roughly 9,600 satellites across 164 countries, and holds the Anthropic and Google compute contracts.
The real question is valuation.
⚠️ How much of that future is already reflected in a company worth $2.13 trillion today?
Bear Case.
→ A $2.13T valuation leaves little room for disappointment. Investors are paying for years of future success, not today’s financial results.
→ Execution still matters. Starship, AI infrastructure, and other long-term growth initiatives must deliver on ambitious expectations.
→ Losses remain elevated. Q1 net losses widened to $4.3 billion as investment in AI and next-generation technologies accelerated.
→ The float story isn’t over. Up to 4.7 billion shares become eligible to trade by December, increasing potential supply over time.
→ Not every growth driver is locked in. Some AI compute agreements can be renewed or terminated on relatively short notice, making portions of future revenue less predictable than traditional long-term infrastructure contracts.
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