Lost in the Headlines.

→ Did Tesla’s delivery report coincided with the jobs report? Yes — both dropped July 2.
→ Did Tesla’s news dominate coverage that day? Also yes, based on what we built yesterday.

Gold barely made the news.

While Tesla captured the headlines, the jobs report quietly reshaped expectations for the Federal Reserve. The odds of a September rate hike fell sharply, Treasury yields moved lower, and gold continued its advance.

Before the closing bell, here’s the story many investors may have overlooked.
⇩

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Goldman’s thesis…

Four days before Thursday’s jobs report, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its $4,900 year-end price target for gold.

The bank’s view was straightforward:
The recent pullback wasn’t the end of gold’s rally—it was a pause.

Despite falling roughly 24% from its February peak, Goldman argued that the long-term forces supporting gold remained intact. The bank viewed the weakness as cyclical rather than structural, expecting those temporary headwinds to fade over time.

Thursday’s jobs report didn’t validate the entire thesis. But it did weaken one of the very forces Goldman had identified as holding gold back.

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Two Forces Shaping Gold.

Goldman’s outlook rests on two competing forces.

1 The Structural Tailwind

Goldman believes the long-term case for gold remains intact.

Since the freezing of Russia’s foreign reserves in 2022, many emerging-market central banks have been steadily diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets and increasing their gold holdings—a geopolitical decision that isn’t driven by whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by another 25 basis points.

That trend continues to strengthen. According to the World Gold Council, 45% of the 76 central banks surveyed expect to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months—the highest share on record.

2 The Cyclical Headwind

The shorter-term picture has been very different.

Higher oil prices fueled inflation concerns, pushing investors to expect a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

As bond yields moved higher, making income-producing assets like bonds more attractive than gold.

That shift reduced investor demand for gold—particularly through ETFs—and weighed on prices.

Oil ↑ → Inflation fears ↑ → Fed stays hawkish → Bond yields ↑ → Gold becomes less attractive.

Goldman viewed those pressures as temporary.

Thursday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report didn’t change the structural story—but it did reduce expectations for another Fed rate hike, easing one of the cyclical headwinds the bank had identified.

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Why 2022 Changed the Gold Market?

Goldman’s long-term thesis traces back to a single event.

In February 2022, the United States and its allies froze roughly $300 billion of Russia’s foreign currency reserves held in Western financial institutions.

For many central banks, it was a wake-up call.

Assets held abroad—even sovereign reserves—could become inaccessible during periods of geopolitical conflict. Physical gold held within a country’s own borders could not.

Goldman believes that realization fundamentally changed how many central banks think about reserve management. Rather than treating gold purely as an inflation hedge, they increasingly view it as a strategic reserve asset that sits outside the global financial system.

Unlike interest-rate expectations, that decision isn’t revisited after every Fed meeting. It’s a long-term geopolitical shift that plays out over years, not months.

Goldman also expects broader macro concerns—including rising fiscal deficits across Western economies—to encourage additional private demand for gold over time, reinforcing the longer-term trend.

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What Thursday’s Report Changed

Weak jobs
↓
Less inflation pressure
↓
Fed less likely to raise rates
↓
Bond yields fall
↓
Gold becomes relatively more attractive
↓
Gold rises

Goldman’s biggest concern was the Federal Reserve.

The bank argued that as long as the labor market remained strong and inflation stayed elevated, the Fed would have little reason to lower interest rates—or could even raise them further. That environment tends to work against gold.

Thursday’s jobs report challenged that assumption.

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs, roughly half of the 110,000 economists expected. At the same time, 720,000 people left the labor force, adding to evidence that the labor market may be losing momentum.

Investors quickly reassessed what that could mean for the Fed.

The probability of a September rate hike fell from 67% to below 50%, while Treasury yields moved lower.

That’s where gold enters the picture.

Unlike bonds, gold doesn’t pay interest. Lower expected rates reduce the advantage of holding bonds, making gold more competitive as a store of value.

That doesn’t guarantee higher gold prices.

But it does explain why Thursday’s jobs report immediately improved one of the key conditions Goldman had identified as holding gold back.

A Word of Caution ⚠️

Goldman isn’t arguing that gold’s path higher will be smooth.

The bank acknowledges that the same headwinds weighing on gold in recent months haven’t disappeared overnight. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains a relatively hawkish stance, higher interest rates can continue to limit investor demand for gold, particularly through ETFs.

That’s why Goldman describes those headwinds as likely to “at least partly reverse over time”—carefully acknowledging that the timing remains uncertain.

The bank’s economists still expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this year, with easing not beginning until the second half of next year.

In other words, Thursday’s jobs report improved the backdrop for gold, but it didn’t settle the debate.

Goldman’s thesis has always been a long-term one, built on structural trends that are expected to play out over years rather than a single economic report.

Lesson Of The Day:

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