How High Could it Go?
How expensive was too expensive?
Would the rally last?
This week, the quiet period expired, and Wall Street’s first analyst reports began arriving.
For the first time, investors have detailed financial models—not just excitement—to compare.
Here is the story. ⇩
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The Early Verdict?
Almost everyone likes the company.
They just can’t agree on what it’s worth.
→ Wedbush initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target.
→ Oppenheimer remains the most optimistic at $250.
→ Susquehanna took a more cautious approach, assigning a Neutral rating and a $170 target.
Across all 11 analysts now covering the stock, the median price target sits around $227.
The market had a different opinion.
SpaceX SPCX ( ▼ 7.8% ) fell 7.8% on Wednesday.
WELCOME to the next stage of being a public company.
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That was three months before the first reported case.
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Because this crisis will be tectonic in scale…and it’s going to begin with the bubble popping in AI.
The Analyst Scoreboard.
1 The Expansion View · Oppenheimer · $250
Oppenheimer is optimistic.
Its thesis is that SpaceX isn’t finished building.
It’s just getting started.
Analyst Timothy Horan raised his price target from $190 to $250 after SpaceX acquired AI startup Cursor, arguing the deal could dramatically accelerate the company’s AI revenue.
His model projects Cursor generating roughly $6 billion in revenue by the end of this year, pushing SpaceX’s AI segment close to $9 billion in quarterly revenue.
Horan also expects SpaceX to continue expanding through acquisitions.
Potential targets include additional
→ power assets,
→ data centers, and even
→ mobile communications companies that could strengthen Starlink’s network.
In his view, today’s SpaceX is only the foundation for a much larger AI and connectivity platform.
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2 The Infrastructure View · Wedbush · $190
Dan Ives argues investors shouldn’t think of SpaceX as just a rocket company.
His thesis rests on three businesses working together.
Launch provides the infrastructure. SpaceX completed roughly 170 missions in 2025 and sent more payload into orbit than the rest of the world combined, giving it a cost advantage that competitors struggle to match.
Starlink provides the cash flow. With roughly 12 million subscribers and less than 1% of the global broadband market, Wedbush believes the runway for growth remains enormous.
Then there’s AI.
Ives believes this is where most of SpaceX’s future value will come from. The company has already signed large AI compute agreements with companies including Anthropic and Google, using its Colossus data centers to power models like Claude and Gemini. That’s why Wedbush describes SpaceX as “one of the most differentiated assets in the technology sector.”
But even the bull case comes with a caveat.
Those compute contracts can reportedly be cancelled with relatively short notice, making them less predictable than the long-term cloud contracts signed by traditional hyperscalers like Microsoft or Amazon.
Ives also views today’s losses differently than many investors.
Rather than seeing a company losing money, he sees one spending aggressively to build businesses that won’t fully mature until later this decade.
His $190 price target is based on what SpaceX could look like in 2028, not what it earns today.
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3 The Valuation View · Susquehanna · $170
Susquehanna doesn’t disagree with the business.
It questions the price.
Analyst Charles Minervino acknowledged nearly every strength highlighted by the bulls: launch leadership, Starlink’s growth potential, AI opportunities, and Elon Musk’s execution.
His concern is simpler.
At current valuations, investors are already paying for years of exceptional growth.
→ If SpaceX delivers exactly as expected, the stock may justify today’s price.
→ If execution slips, the margin for error is small.
That’s why Susquehanna’s Neutral rating isn’t a bearish call.
It’s a valuation call.
As Minervino put it, SpaceX operates in several markets that are still evolving, creating “a wide range of outcomes.”
In other words, the company may be exceptional.
The stock simply leaves less room for surprises.
The Number SpaceX Puts On Its Own Future.
The launch business — the thing SpaceX is actually famous for — accounts for just $370 billion of it, or about 1.3%. Connectivity (Starlink) accounts for another 5.6%.
The remaining 93% of SpaceX’s entire addressable market claim rests entirely on AI.
The bull case, in other words, is an AI infrastructure thesis, with rockets as the delivery mechanism.
📅 July 7 — SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100
On July 7, SpaceX is scheduled to join the Nasdaq-100, one of the fastest index additions for a company of its size.
JPMorgan estimates the inclusion could generate roughly $4.3 billion in buying from index-tracking funds that are required to hold the index’s components.
The Number Every Investor Should Know
Almost every bullish report shares the same long-term vision.
They also acknowledge the same short-term reality.
In the first quarter, SpaceX generated $4.7 billion in revenue but reported a $4.3 billion net loss, compared with a $528 million loss a year earlier.
Those losses are largely the result of heavy investment in AI infrastructure, Starship, and future growth initiatives.
The debate is about what the number means.
→ The bulls see an investment cycle.
→ The bears see a cash burn problem.
Both are looking at the same financial statement.
Don’t forget to cast your vote 👇
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