How We Got Here

Three days. That is how long the streak lasted.

→ Friday +19%.
→ Monday +35%.
→ Tuesday +48%, briefly topping Microsoft and Amazon, closing within striking distance of becoming the fifth largest company on Earth.

Wednesday it ended.

SpaceX fell 4.95% — the first red day since the IPO. Closed at $191.82, down from Tuesday’s $201.68. Slipped back below Amazon. Back to sixth place.

Here is the story. ⇩

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Four – Day Scorecard

Here is the thing worth sitting with: the stock is still up 42% from its $135 IPO price.

A 5% pullback after a 67% run is not a crash. It is a Tuesday with a bad mood, arriving on a Wednesday.

But it is the first real data point for the people who have been calling this a Tesla-style setup since Monday — and Wednesday gave them something to point at.

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Why it actually fell?

The catalyst was not SpaceX-specific.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged Wednesday — the first decision under new chairman Kevin Warsh — and new projections showed officials split on whether they will hike rates at all this year.

Markets reacted by fully pricing in a rate hike by October.

That uncertainty hit everything: S&P 500 fell 1.2%, Nasdaq 100 fell 1%.

SpaceX fell nearly 5% — almost five times the market’s decline. That gap is not random. It is the float.

⚠️ The Float Effect

The same scarcity that helped push shares up 67% also works in reverse.

When buyers overwhelm a tiny float, stocks jump.

When sellers show up, the decline gets amplified.

That’s exactly what happened Wednesday.

The move wasn’t necessarily about changing opinions on SpaceX.

It was about how few shares exist to absorb buying and selling.

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Retail Bought the Dip

Most investors would expect enthusiasm to fade after the first red day.

Instead, retail investors bought more.

A lot more.

According to Vanda Research, SpaceX has now been the most purchased stock by retail investors for three consecutive sessions.

Wednesday’s buying exceeded the first two days combined.

One Interesting Rotation

Retail investors sold Tesla.

Retail investors bought SpaceX.

Vanda’s conclusion:

“SpaceX may increasingly be viewed as the cleaner AI and technology exposure.”

What This Means →

The first red day didn’t shake retail conviction.

If anything, it strengthened it.

That’s an important signal.

Whether it’s ultimately right or wrong is a different discussion.

The Tesla Debate

Is this 2010 all over again?

The comparison showed up almost immediately.

Tesla surged after its IPO.

Then doubled.

Then lost roughly 25% of its value within weeks.

Some investors think SpaceX follows the same script.

Others think it’s different.

What This Means →

The battle is between scarcity and supply.

Right now scarcity is winning.

History suggests supply eventually shows up.

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What History Says

If the gain holds through day five, SpaceX beats the average. The real test comes later.

The pattern is familiar.

Most IPOs hold up early.

Many struggle once lockups expire and insiders gain the ability to sell.

Circle August

That’s when many investors expect the first meaningful supply pressure to emerge.

That’s the date both bulls and bears are watching.

One down day does not make a crash.

1 “Long story short, I think this is just noise so far. If we were to see a big down day, I think that’d be a different discussion. If it really got hit more, we’d probably add.”
~ Michael Monaghan, Founder Funds, holds SPCX shares, June 17, 2026

2 Even Michael Burry — the investor made famous by The Big Short, who built his name betting against overpriced assets — wrote Tuesday that he has not bought any SpaceX puts.

His stated reason: they are too expensive.

That is not a bullish signal. It is a recognition that betting against this particular stock, right now, costs more than the conviction is worth to him.

One down day does not make a crash. It makes a data point.
The Fed caused it, the float amplified it, and retail bought through it without flinching — $144.6 million on the one day the stock actually went down.

The lockup expirations that start landing around August are the actual event everyone is bracing for — not a single red Wednesday.

Lesson Of The Day:

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