When winning is not enough
Imagine you ran a marathon, finished in the top 1%, broke your personal record by 20 minutes, and crossed the finish line to find the crowd booing.
That is roughly what happened to Palantir this week — a company that posted: → 85% revenue growth,
→ 150% earnings growth,
→ raised its full-year guidance, and
→ closed 206 deals worth at least $1 million each in a single quarter, only to watch its stock slide 7% as investors shrugged and moved on.
So what went wrong? To answer that, you have to understand what the market is quietly doing to software companies right now.
Over the past year, investors have developed something close to an allergy toward profitable, cash-generating software businesses, driven by a single uncomfortable question that AI has introduced into every boardroom and every earnings call: what if this software gets replaced?
Palantir has spent years building platforms that help governments and corporations make sense of enormous, messy datasets. Embedded so deeply into military intelligence operations and hospital systems that ripping it out would be genuinely painful. The US government relies on it. And with the Iran war making the defense pitch write itself, that business has never been stronger.
Here’s the story ⇩
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BUT…
1 OpenAI and Anthropic are now knocking on the same corporate doors, offering something faster, cheaper, and increasingly capable of doing the same translation — and that threat, even if it remains years away from being real, is enough for investors to quietly wonder whether Palantir is the last generation of this kind of software rather than the first generation of the next one.
That is a brutal place to be, even when every metric is pointing up.
2 There is another layer to this. The retail crowd that turned Palantir into a cult stock — responsible for 25% of daily trading volume a year ago — has quietly stepped back, accounting for just 13% today.
The meme energy is fading. What remains is a genuinely strong business carrying a still-elevated valuation into an uncertain competitive landscape.
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Trump Just Named His Secret AI Project. It’s Called “Golden Dawn.”
When a secretive project gets a name, it means we’re closer to a breakthrough than most people think. Behind the razor wire of a hidden government lab in Tennessee, 40,000 scientists are finishing work on an AI computer 283 trillion times more powerful than today’s data centers — spanning more than 700 miles and built to speed up AI breakthroughs by 36,000%. When Golden Dawn launches, it could instantly leapfrog ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok — and trigger a $100 trillion reset of the AI markets. Louis Navellier is revealing the one stock at the center of it — down to the ticker — but only through May 5th.
Flip the coin and…
As Palantir has too much competition… Apple has too little supply… it ran out of chips.
Apple has quietly begun shopping for backup chip suppliers, and the fact that this is even necessary tells more about the state of the AI race.
According to Bloomberg, Apple executives held early-stage talks with Intel INTC ( ▲ 12.91% ) and visited Samsung’s chip plant in Texas, all in search of an alternative to TSMC, the Taiwanese manufacturer that has produced Apple’s main processors for over a decade.
→ Intel jumped nearly 14% on the news alone, which is a remarkable reaction to a conversation that produced no agreement, no contract, and no commitment — and which tells exactly how desperate the market is for anyone capable of making more advanced chips at scale.
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Hidden in Tesla’s Filing: A $12 Billion “Super Startup”
Pull up Tesla’s most recent SEC filing. Page 5.
And you’ll see a single line showing $12 billion in revenue from a brand-new “super startup” Elon Musk has been quietly incubating inside Tesla.
This new “super startup” has nothing to do with cars or robots or space or AI…
But it sits at the center of what Blackstone calls “a $23 trillion investment opportunity.”
And on July 22, Elon is expected to pull back the curtain and reveal exactly what he’s building.
But Adam O’Dell already knows… and he reveals it all in this urgent video.
In the same queue.
The reason Apple is looking around is that TSMC simply cannot keep up with demand. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are spending hundreds of billions building AI infrastructure, and they are all standing in the same queue as Apple.
Tim Cook said it plainly on last week’s earnings call — supply constraints are actively limiting iPhone and Mac sales right now.
So Apple did what any rational person does when their favorite restaurant is fully booked. It started looking at other options. And Intel and Samsung are those options.
However…
1 Intel is still in the early stages of a long and expensive foundry turnaround.
2 Samsung is a distant second in the market. These remain exploratory conversations with no deals signed.
And yet Intel jumped nearly 14% on the news… without a contract or a partnership. Just on the possibility of a phone call.
Now pull back and look at the whole picture… the compute shortage powering the AI boom is not a short-term bottleneck — it is a structural gap that will take years and hundreds of billions of dollars to close, and that anyone who can help close it will be rewarded accordingly.
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Companies are already delaying their IPOs. Why?
Because the SpaceX offering is expected to absorb nearly all the capital in the market.
Bloomberg reported the shift. Citigroup just joined the underwriting team.
The raise could hit $50 billion. But the smart money isn’t just buying the IPO.
They’re positioning into the one chokepoint supplier this $1.75 trillion empire depends on to stay online.
Most investors will see it after the move.
The thread that ties it all together:
Here is what both stories are really saying.
The AI boom is the biggest construction project in human history. And right now, the market is paying a fortune for anyone selling shovels (chips, power, infrastructure) and asking hard questions of anyone selling blueprints.
The foundations are still being poured, and the world needs more concrete before it needs more architects. The companies that figure out which side of that line they are on, and move accordingly, are the ones worth paying attention to in the next 12 months.
Palantir sells blueprints. Apple needs shovels.
Intel just realized it might be sitting on a shovel factory.
The rest is just details. 👀
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