It was electric and genuinely historic.
It was the biggest opening in exchange history. $75 billion raised.
Friday morning $SPCX ( ▲ 19.22% ) opened at $150 — an 11% pop from the IPO price.
By end of day it closed at roughly $160.88 — up 19.22% from the $135 price. No $1,000 open like Tuchman predicted. Just a solid first day.
At the same time — the exact same morning:
Every stock that had been running up in anticipation of SpaceX’s IPO collapsed.
Investors who had been holding space proxies because they could not buy SpaceX directly sold those proxies the moment SPCX was available to buy.
The halo became a vacuum.
Here is the honest math behind both.⇩
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Story 1 · The IPO that worked
The largest public offering in history delivered a controlled, clean first day.
Not the $1,000 Tuchman predicted. Not the chaos Cramer warned about.
Just a 19% gain and a world record.
Musk is now the world’s first trillionaire.
Recap:
→ The largest IPO in history cleared its first test.
→ Demand remained strong throughout the session.
→ Analysts continue to point toward satellite connectivity and AI infrastructure as major long-term growth drivers.
→ Most importantly, the stock avoided the wild volatility often seen in highly anticipated IPOs.
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Story 2 · The sell the news trade
When the main attraction finally arrived – everything around it collapsed.
This is what “sell the news” looks like.
For weeks, investors poured money into space-related stocks expecting the SpaceX IPO to lift the entire sector.
Instead, the opposite happened.
Once SpaceX began trading, investors sold many of those positions and moved directly into the company they wanted exposure to all along.
This was entirely predictable — and still jarring to watch.
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Story 3 · Outside JPMorgan
Not Everyone Was Celebrating
While traders watched SpaceX’s debut, a small group of protesters gathered outside JPMorgan’s headquarters in New York.
JPMorgan was one of the lead underwriters on the IPO.
The group raised three primary concerns:
1 Early investors and insiders may benefit most. The IPO structure gives early holders the exit. Public market buyers arrive after the pop — and after the hype has already been priced in.
2 Index inclusion forces passive retirement funds in. Nasdaq changed its rules ahead of the listing to fast-track SpaceX into its main index. Millions of Americans with 401(k) plans would own SPCX whether they chose to or not — at whatever price the market sets after the pop.
3 The valuation itself. A company still losing billions annually — valued at levels rarely seen in market history — is now inside the passive index funds of ordinary Americans.
There was a separate demonstration in Times Square. The events were not connected but reflected broader public debate surrounding the IPO and Musk’s growing influence.
And the discussion extends beyond SpaceX.
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Story 4 · The Bigger Debate
The protest were small but they pointed at something much bigger.
The IPO market of 2026 may be the largest wealth-creation event in modern financial history.
1 SpaceX.
2 Anthropic.
3 OpenAI.
Together, they’re expected to raise more than $200 billion from public markets in a single summer.
And the money doesn’t flow equally.
→ First come the early investors.
→ Then employees through secondary sales.
→ Then, after lock-up periods expire, public market investors.
History suggests that last group has often gotten the worst deal.
According to research from Truist CIO Keith Lerner, the average return for the last 30 major IPOs was:
→ 6 Months → -9%
→ 12 Months → -9%
Some examples:
Average of the last 30 major IPOs → -9%
The pattern is remarkably consistent.
Then a long period where the company must prove it can grow into the story investors bought.
We’ve seen it with Facebook.
We’ve seen it with Coinbase.
We’ve seen it with Robinhood.
The question now is whether SpaceX is exceptional enough to break the pattern.
The IPO Cycle, Visualized
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